Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect. Key policy insights For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS. The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power. Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline

EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target

Beyond Japanese NDC: energy and macroeconomic transitions towards 2050 in emission pathways with multiple ambition levels

Japan has set greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050, as stated in the nationally determined contribution (NDC) and in the long-term strategy for decarbonization (LTS) submitted to the UNFCCC in 2020, respectively. While upgrading these targets is needed to realize the global climate goals (2 °C and 1.5 °C), the implications of the target for the period in-between remains unclear. This study assesses the energy and macroeconomic impacts of enhancing the ambition of 2040 and 2050 emission reduction targets in Japan by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In addition, we analyze the implications on the speed of energy efficiency improvement and low-carbon energy penetration along with macroeconomic impacts, and the shift from the current LTS goal (80% emissions reduction by 2050) to a full decarbonization one. The study shows that, compared to the current ambition (53% reduction by 2040 compared to 2005), enhancing ambition of the 2040 (63% reduction by 2040 compared to 2005) and 2050 targets (zero emissions by 2050) rises the share of low-carbon energy supply more drastically than the decreases in energy intensity, and increases macroeconomic costs by 19–72%. Moreover, meeting these targets demands accelerating considerably the reductions in carbon intensities through expansion of renewables and CCS beyond historical trends and beyond current efforts towards the 2030s NDC. Enabling larger low-carbon supplies and energy efficiency improvements makes full decarbonization by 2050 possible at costs equivalent to current ambition. Further analyses are needed to clarify at a finer detail the implications of changes in these enablers by sectors, technologies and policies. This kind of analysis offer key insights on the feasibility of Japan’s emission reduction targets for the formulation of new commitments for the next cycle of the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement

Inspiratory Muscle Training in the Intensive Care Unit: A New Perspective

BACKGROUND: Prolonged use of mechanical ventilation (MV) leads to weakening of the respiratory muscles, especially in patients subjected to sedation, but this effect seems to be preventable or more quickly reversible using respiratory muscle training. The aims of the study were to assess variations in respiratory and hemodinamic parameters with electronic inspiratory muscle training (EIMT) in tracheostomized patients requiring MV and to compare these variations with those in a group of patients subjected to an intermittent nebulization program (INP). METHODS: This was a pilot, prospective, randomized study of tracheostomized patients requiring MV in one intensive care unit (ICU). Twenty-one patients were randomized: 11 into the INP group and 10 into the EIMT group. Two patients were excluded in experimental group because of hemodynamic instability. RESULTS: In the EIMT group, maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) after training was significantly higher than that before (P = 0.017), there were no hemodynamic changes, and the total weaning time was shorter than in the INP group (P = 0.0192). CONCLUSION: The EIMT device is safe, promotes an increase in MIP, and leads to a shorter ventilator weaning time than that seen in patients treated using INP.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap.

The original version of this Article contained an error in Fig. 4b, in which a variable (IMAGE 3.0) for one scenario for the year 2050 was incorrectly reported/placed. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article