Analytic Criteria for Power Exhaust in Divertors due to Impurity Radiation

Present divertor concepts for next step experiments such ITER and TPX rely upon impurity and hydrogen radiation to transfer the energy from the edge plasma to the main chamber and divertor chamber walls. The efficiency of these processes depends strongly on the heat flux, the impurity species, and the connection length. Using a database for impurity radiation rates constructed from the ADPAK code package, we have developed criteria for the required impurity fraction, impurity species, connection length and electron temperature and density at the mid-plane. Consistent with previous work, we find that the impurity radiation from coronal equilibrium rates is, in general, not adequate to exhaust the highest expected heating powers in present and future experiments. As suggested by others, we examine the effects of enhancing the radiation rates with charge exchange recombination and impurity recycling, and develop criteria for the minimum neutral fraction and impurity recycling rate that is required to exhaust a specified power. We also use this criteria to find the optimum impurity for divertor power exhaust.Comment: Preprint for the 11th PSI meeting, Adobe pdf with 14 figures, 15 page

Radiation Rates for Low Z Impurities in Edge Plasmas

The role of impurity radiation in the reduction of heat loads on divertor plates in present experiments such as DIII-D, JET, JT-60, ASDEX, and Alcator C-Mod, and in planned experiments such as ITER and TPX places a new degree of importance on the accuracy of impurity radiation emission rates for electron temperatures below 250 eV for ITER and below 150 eV for present experiments. We have calculated the radiated power loss using a collisional radiative model for Be, B, C, Ne and Ar using a multiple configuration interaction model which includes density dependent effects, as well as a very detailed treatment of the energy levels and meta-stable levels. The "collisional radiative" effects are very important for Be at temperatures below 10 eV. The same effects are present for higher Z impurities, but not as strongly. For some of the lower Z elements, the new rates are about a factor of two lower than those from a widely used, simpler average-ion package (ADPAK) developed for high Z ions and for higher temperatures. Following the approach of Lengyel for the case where electron heat conduction is the dominant mechanism for heat transport along field lines, our analysis indicates that significant enhancements of the radiation losses above collisional radiative model rates due to such effects as rapid recycling and charge exchange recombination will be necessary for impurity radiation to reduce the peak heat loads on divertor plates for high heat flux experiments such as ITER.Comment: Preprint for the 11th PSI meeting, gzipped postscript with 11 figures, 14 page

Calculations of Energy Losses due to Atomic Processes in Tokamaks with Applications to the ITER Divertor

Reduction of the peak heat loads on the plasma facing components is essential for the success of the next generation of high fusion power tokamaks such as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) 1 . Many present concepts for accomplishing this involve the use of atomic processes to transfer the heat from the plasma to the main chamber and divertor chamber walls and much of the experimental and theoretical physics research in the fusion program is directed toward this issue. The results of these experiments and calculations are the result of a complex interplay of many processes. In order to identify the key features of these experiments and calculations and the relative role of the primary atomic processes, simple quasi-analytic models and the latest atomic physics rate coefficients and cross sections have been used to assess the relative roles of central radiation losses through bremsstrahlung, impurity radiation losses from the plasma edge, charge exchange and hydrogen radiation losses from the scrape-off layer and divertor plasma and impurity radiation losses from the divertor plasma. This anaysis indicates that bremsstrahlung from the plasma center and impurity radiation from the plasma edge and divertor plasma can each play a significant role in reducing the power to the divertor plates, and identifies many of the factors which determine the relative role of each process. For instance, for radiation losses in the divertor to be large enough to radiate the power in the divertor for high power experiments, a neutral fraction of 10-3 to 10-2 and an impurity recycling rate of netrecycle of ~ 10^16 s m^-3 will be required in the divertor.Comment: Preprint for the 1994 APSDPP meeting, uuencoded and gzipped postscript with 22 figures, 40 pages

Competing biosecurity and risk rationalities in the Chittagong poultry commodity chain, Bangladesh

This paper anthropologically explores how key actors in the Chittagong live bird trading network perceive biosecurity and risk in relation to avian influenza between production sites, market maker scenes and outlets. They pay attention to the past and the present, rather than the future, downplaying the need for strict risk management, as outbreaks have not been reported frequently for a number of years. This is analysed as ‘temporalities of risk perception regarding biosecurity’, through Black Swan theory, the idea that unexpected events with major effects are often inappropriately rationalized (Taleb in The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable, Random House, New York, 2007). This incorporates a sociocultural perspective on risk, emphasizing the contexts in which risk is understood, lived, embodied and experienced. Their risk calculation is explained in terms of social consent, practical intelligibility and convergence of constraints and motivation. The pragmatic and practical orientation towards risk stands in contrast to how risk is calculated in the avian influenza preparedness paradigm. It is argued that disease risk on the ground has become a normalized part of everyday business, as implied in Black Swan theory. Risk which is calculated retrospectively is unlikely to encourage investment in biosecurity and, thereby, points to the danger of unpredictable outlier events

A Bayesian approach to quantifying the effects of mass poultry vaccination upon the spatial and temporal dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam.

Published versio

Flying Over an Infected Landscape: Distribution of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Risk in South Asia and Satellite Tracking of Wild Waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May–June–July 2009 in China (Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl

Characterization of H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from humans in vitro

Since December 1997, highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1viruses have swept through poultry populations across Asian countries and been transmitted into African and European countries. We characterized 6 avian influenza H5N1 viruses isolated from humans in 2004 in Thailand. A highly pathogenic (HP) KAN353 strain showed faster replication and higher virulence in embryonated eggs compared to other strains, especially compared to the low pathogenic (LP) SP83 strain. HP KAN353 also showed strong cytopathogenicity compared to SP83 in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. Interestingly, LP SP83 induced smaller plaques compared to other strains, especially HP KAN353. PB2 amino acid 627E may contribute to low virulence, whereas either PB2 amino acid 627 K or the combination of 627E/701N seems to be associated with high virulence. The in vitro assays used in this study may provide the basis for assessing the pathogenesis of influenza H5N1 viruses in vivo

Eurasian Tree Sparrows, Risk for H5N1 Virus Spread and Human Contamination through Buddhist Ritual: An Experimental Approach

Background: The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 virus has dramatically spread throughout Southeast Asia since its first detection in 1997. Merit Release Birds, such as the Eurasian Tree Sparrow, are believed to increase one's positive karma when kissed and released during Buddhist rituals. Since these birds are often in close contact with both poultry and humans, we investigated their potential role in the spread of H5N1 virus. Methodology/Principal Findings: Seven series of experiments were conducted in order to investigate the possible interactions between inoculated and exposed birds, including sparrow/sparrow, sparrow/chicken, duck/sparrow. Daily and post-mortem samples collected were tested for H5N1 virus by real-time RT-PCR and egg inoculation. When directly inoculated, Eurasian Tree Sparrows were highly susceptible to the H5N1 virus, with a fatality rate approaching 100% within 5 days post-inoculation. Although transmission of fatal infection between sparrows did not occur, seroconversion of the exposed birds was observed. Up to 100% chickens exposed to inoculated sparrows died of H5N1 infection, depending on the caging conditions of the birds, while a fatality rate of 50% was observed on sparrows exposed to infected ducks. Large quantities of H5N1 virus were detected in the sparrows, particularly in their feathers, from which infectious particles were recovered. Conclusions/Significance: Our study indicates that under experimental conditions, Eurasian Tree Sparrows are susceptible to H5N1 infection, either by direct inoculation or by contact with infected poultry. Their ability to transmit H5N1 infection to other birds is also demonstrated, suggesting that the sparrows may play a role in the dissemination of the virus. Finally, the presence of significant quantities of H5N1 virus on sparrows' feathers, including infectious particles, would suggest that Merit Release Birds represent a risk for human contamination in countries where avian influenza virus is circulating and where this religious ritual is practiced. © 2011 Gutiérrez et al.published_or_final_versio

Transmission of Avian Influenza A Viruses among Species in an Artificial Barnyard

Waterfowl and shorebirds harbor and shed all hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes of influenza A viruses and interact in nature with a broad range of other avian and mammalian species to which they might transmit such viruses. Estimating the efficiency and importance of such cross-species transmission using epidemiological approaches is difficult. We therefore addressed this question by studying transmission of low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses from infected ducks to other common animals in a quasi-natural laboratory environment designed to mimic a common barnyard. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) recently infected with H5N2 or H7N3 viruses were introduced into a room housing other mallards plus chickens, blackbirds, rats and pigeons, and transmission was assessed by monitoring virus shedding (ducks) or seroconversion (other species) over the following 4 weeks. Additional animals of each species were directly inoculated with virus to characterize the effect of a known exposure. In both barnyard experiments, virus accumulated to high titers in the shared water pool. The H5N2 virus was transmitted from infected ducks to other ducks and chickens in the room either directly or through environmental contamination, but not to rats or blackbirds. Ducks infected with the H7N2 virus transmitted directly or indirectly to all other species present. Chickens and blackbirds directly inoculated with these viruses shed significant amounts of virus and seroconverted; rats and pigeons developed antiviral antibodies, but, except for one pigeon, failed to shed virus