Are exports and imports of Chile cointegrated?

This study examines the long-run relationship between Chilean exports and imports during the 1975-2004 period using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks. The results indicate that there exists a long-run equilibrium between exports and imports in Chile, despite the balance-of-payments crisis of 1982-83. This finding implies that Chile\'s macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long-run and suggests that Chile is not in violation of its international budget constraint.Exports, imports, cointegration, structural break, Chile

Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts to foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors prevalently do not exhibit strong spillovers. Thus, it is to be expected that both horizontal and vertical export diversification are positively correlated with economic growth. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace-test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given Chile\'s dramatic changes in economic policy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.Export diversification, growth, Chile, cointegration

Process for purification of solids

A process for purifying solids, especially silicon, by melting and subsequent resolidification, is described. Silicon used in solar cell manufacturing is processed more efficiently and cost effectively

In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries

This paper challenges the widespread belief that FDI generally has a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and re-examines the FDI-led growth hypothesis for 28 developing countries using cointegration techniques on a country-by-country basis. The paper finds that in the vast majority of countries FDI has no statistically significant long-run impact on growth. In very few cases, FDI indeed contributes to economic growth both in the long and the short run. But for some countries, there is also evidence of growth-limiting effects of FDI in the short or long term. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is no clear association between the growth impact of FDI and the level of per capita income, the level of education, the degree of openness, and the level of financial market development in developing countries.FDI; Growth; Developing countries; Cointegration

Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several single-equation and system cointegration techniques are applied. The estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity-enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity-limiting effects of primary exports.

Problems in Applying Dynamic Panel Data Models: Theoretical and Empirical Findings

The objective of this paper is twofold: First, the applicability of a widely used dynamic model, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), is scrutinized in a panel data setting. Second, Chile’s development of market shares in the EU market in the period of 1988 to 2002 is then analyzed in this dynamic framework, testing for the impact of price competitiveness on market shares and searching for estimation methods that allow dealing with the problem of inter-temporal and cross-section correlation of the disturbances. To estimate the coefficients of the ARDL model, FGLS is utilized within the Three Stage Feasible Generalized Least Squares (3SFGLS) and the system Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) methods. A computation of errors is added to highlight the susceptibility of the model to problems related to underlying model assumptions.Dynamic panel data model, autoregressive distributed lag model; pooled 3Stage Feasible

Foreign Aid and Recipient Countries` Exports: Does Aid Promote Bilateral Trade?

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in promoting bilateral trade relations. The empirical findings, in contrast, indicate that the net impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports is positive -even though the macroeconomic impact of aid is rather small- and that the average return for recipients’ exports is about 1.50 US$ for every aid dollar spent. We argue that “bilateral aid” seems to promote good bilateral trade relations, mutual trust and familiarity and that those factors reinforce bilateral trade, including recipient country exports. The paper also estimates the effect of different types of aid (bilateral aid versus multilateral aid flowing to a specific recipient) and studies aid’s contribution to an expansion of exports in different regions of the world. It is found that aid is strongly export-enhancing in Asia and Latin America, but not in Africa.International trade; foreign aid; recipient exports; bilateral trade relations

Does Aid translate into Bilateral Trade? Findings for Recipient Countries

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries' exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Our empirical findings -all based on endogeneity-proof techniques (such as Dynamic OLS or more refined techniques) - depend very strongly on whether bilateral trade relations and autocorrelation of the disturbances are controlled for. When not controlling for these phenomena, the impact of aid is quite substantial (especially in Asia, Latin America & Caribbean) but when sound estimation techniques are applied the net impact of aid on recipient countries' exports becomes insignificant in the full 130-country sample and the subsamples: Sub-Saharan Africa & MENA, Asia and Latin America & the Caribbean. However, this rather disappointing finding is in line with the small macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies. --International trade,foreign aid,recipient exports,bilateral trade relations

In Search for a Long-run Relationship between Aid and Growth: Pitfalls and Findings

In this paper we investigate the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid for a panel of 131 (alternatively 52) recipient countries over the period 1960 to 2006 by employing annual data and 5-year averages. Reliance on standard panel estimation techniques, such as 2-ways FE estimation, panel GMM and SUR estimation, points to some pitfalls (impossibility of possible cointegration between aid and growth, autocorrelation of the error terms, endogeneity of the variables) that must be dealt with panel time series techniques (such as panel unit root test, panel cointegration tests and panel dynamic feasible generalized least squares estimation (DFGLS)). Estimations with DFGLS show that aid has an insignificant or a minute negative significant impact on per capita income. This result holds for countries with above- and below-average aid-to-GDP ratios, for countries with different levels of human development, with different income levels and from different regions of the world. It can be shown that by not controlling for autocorrelation, one erroneously attributes to aid a larger, significant negative impact on per capita income. We also find that aid has a significant positive (even though) small impact on investment, but a negative and significant impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation).Foreign aid; real per capita income; panel time series techniques; dynamic feasible generalized linear least squares (DFGLS)

Magnetization precession due to a spin polarized current in a thin nanoelement: numerical simulation study

In this paper a detailed numerical study (in frames of the Slonczewski formalism) of magnetization oscillations driven by a spin-polarized current through a thin elliptical nanoelement is presented. We show that a sophisticated micromagnetic model, where a polycrystalline structure of a nanoelement is taken into account, can explain qualitatively all most important features of the magnetization oscillation spectra recently observed experimentally (S.I. Kiselev et al., Nature, vol. 425, p. 380 (2003), namely: existence of several equidistant spectral bands, sharp onset and abrupt disappearance of magnetization oscillations with increasing current, absence of the out-of-plane regime predicted by a macrospin model and the relation between frequencies of so called small-angle and quasichaotic oscillations. However, a quantitative agreement with experimental results (especially concerning the frequency of quasichaotic oscillations) could not be achieved in the region of reasonable parameter values, indicating that further model refinement is necessary for a complete understanding of the spin-driven magnetization precession even in this relatively simple experimental situation.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. B; In this revised version figure positions on the page have been changed to ensure correct placements of the figure caption