Adaptive Non-Inferiority Margins under Observable Non-Constancy

A central assumption in the design and conduct of non-inferiority trials is that the active-control therapy will have the same degree of effectiveness in the planned non-inferiority trial as it had in the prior placebo-controlled trials used to define the non-inferiority margin. This is referred to as the `constancy\u27 assumption. If the constancy assumption fails, the chosen non-inferiority margin is not valid and the study runs the risk of approving an inferior product or failing to approve a beneficial product. The constancy assumption cannot be validated in a trial without a placebo arm, and it is unlikely ever to be met completely. However, it is often the case that there exist strong, measurable predictors of constancy, such as dosing and adherence, and such predictors can be used to identify situations where the constancy assumption will likely fail. Here we propose a method for using measurable predictors of active-control effectiveness to specify non-inferiority margins targeted to the planned study population, and further use these predictors to adapt the non-inferiority margin at the end of the study. Population-specific margins can help avoid violations of the constancy assumption, and adaptive margins can help adjust for violations that will inevitably occur in real clinical trials, while at the same time maintain pre-specified levels of type I error and power

HIV prevention trial design in an era of effective pre-exposure prophylaxis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness protecting at-risk individuals from HIV-1 infection. Despite this record of effectiveness, concerns persist about the diminished protective effect observed in women compared with men and the influence of adherence and risk behaviors on effectiveness in targeted subpopulations. Furthermore, the high prophylactic efficacy of the first PrEP agent, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC), presents challenges for demonstrating the efficacy of new candidates. Trials of new agents would typically require use of non-inferiority (NI) designs in which acceptable efficacy for an experimental agent is determined using pre-defined margins based on the efficacy of the proven active comparator (i.e. TDF/FTC) in placebo-controlled trials. Setting NI margins is a critical step in designing registrational studies. Under- or over-estimation of the margin can call into question the utility of the study in the registration package. The dependence on previous placebo-controlled trials introduces the same issues as external/historical controls. These issues will need to be addressed using trial design features such as re-estimated NI margins, enrichment strategies, run-in periods, crossover between study arms, and adaptive re-estimation of sample sizes. These measures and other innovations can help to ensure that new PrEP agents are made available to the public using stringent standards of evidence

Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083

Background: The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia. Methods: An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated. Findings: We predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6–48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022–2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2–56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2–20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022–2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage. Interpretation: If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic

A Hall effect thruster plume model including large-angle elastic scattering

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76556/1/AIAA-2001-3355-806.pd

Surgical versus nonsurgical therapy for lumbar spinal stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for spinal stenosis is widely performed, but its effectiveness as compared with nonsurgical treatment has not been shown in controlled trials. METHODS: Surgical candidates with a history of at least 12 weeks of symptoms and spinal stenosis without spondylolisthesis (as confirmed on imaging) were enrolled in either a randomized cohort or an observational cohort at 13 U.S. spine clinics. Treatment was decompressive surgery or usual nonsurgical care. The primary outcomes were measures of bodily pain and physical function on the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-36) and the modified Oswestry Disability Index at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 and 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 289 patients were enrolled in the randomized cohort, and 365 patients were enrolled in the observational cohort. At 2 years, 67% of patients who were randomly assigned to surgery had undergone surgery, whereas 43% of those who were randomly assigned to receive nonsurgical care had also undergone surgery. Despite the high level of nonadherence, the intention-to-treat analysis of the randomized cohort showed a significant treatment effect favoring surgery on the SF-36 scale for bodily pain, with a mean difference in change from baseline of 7.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 14.1); however, there was no significant difference in scores on physical function or on the Oswestry Disability Index. The as-treated analysis, which combined both cohorts and was adjusted for potential confounders, showed a significant advantage for surgery by 3 months for all primary outcomes; these changes remained significant at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: In the combined as-treated analysis, patients who underwent surgery showed significantly more improvement in all primary outcomes than did patients who were treated nonsurgically. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000411 [ClinicalTrials.gov].)

Surgical versus nonsurgical treatment for lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis.

BACKGROUND: Management of degenerative spondylolisthesis with spinal stenosis is controversial. Surgery is widely used, but its effectiveness in comparison with that of nonsurgical treatment has not been demonstrated in controlled trials. METHODS: Surgical candidates from 13 centers in 11 U.S. states who had at least 12 weeks of symptoms and image-confirmed degenerative spondylolisthesis were offered enrollment in a randomized cohort or an observational cohort. Treatment was standard decompressive laminectomy (with or without fusion) or usual nonsurgical care. The primary outcome measures were the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-36) bodily pain and physical function scores (100-point scales, with higher scores indicating less severe symptoms) and the modified Oswestry Disability Index (100-point scale, with lower scores indicating less severe symptoms) at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 304 patients in the randomized cohort and 303 in the observational cohort. The baseline characteristics of the two cohorts were similar. The one-year crossover rates were high in the randomized cohort (approximately 40% in each direction) but moderate in the observational cohort (17% crossover to surgery and 3% crossover to nonsurgical care). The intention-to-treat analysis for the randomized cohort showed no statistically significant effects for the primary outcomes. The as-treated analysis for both cohorts combined showed a significant advantage for surgery at 3 months that increased at 1 year and diminished only slightly at 2 years. The treatment effects at 2 years were 18.1 for bodily pain (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.5 to 21.7), 18.3 for physical function (95% CI, 14.6 to 21.9), and -16.7 for the Oswestry Disability Index (95% CI, -19.5 to -13.9). There was little evidence of harm from either treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In nonrandomized as-treated comparisons with careful control for potentially confounding baseline factors, patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis and spinal stenosis treated surgically showed substantially greater improvement in pain and function during a period of 2 years than patients treated nonsurgically. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000409 [ClinicalTrials.gov].)

Syndromes with congenital brittle bones

BACKGROUND: There is no clear definition of osteogenesis imperfecta (OI). The most widely used classification of OI divides the disease in four types, although it has been suggested that there may be at least 12 forms of OI. These forms have been named with numbers, eponyms or descriptive names. Some of these syndromes can actually be considered congenital forms of brittle bones resembling OI (SROI). DISCUSSION: A review of different syndromes with congenital brittle bones published in the literature is presented. Syndromes are classified in "OI" (those secondary to mutations in the type I pro-collagen genes), and "syndromes resembling OI" (those secondary to mutations other that the type I pro-collagen genes, identified or not). A definition for OI is proposed as a syndrome of congenital brittle bones secondary to mutations in the genes codifying for pro-collagen genes (COL1A1 and COL1A2). SUMMARY: A debate about the definition of OI and a possible clinical and prognostic classification are warranted

Program design features that can improve participation in health education interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although there have been reported benefits of health education interventions across various health issues, the key to program effectiveness is participation and retention. Unfortunately, not everyone is willing to participate in health interventions upon invitation. In fact, health education interventions are vulnerable to low participation rates. The objective of this study was to identify design features that may increase participation in health education interventions and evaluation surveys, and to maximize recruitment and retention efforts in a general ambulatory population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional questionnaire was administered to 175 individuals in waiting rooms of two hospitals diagnostic centres in Toronto, Canada. Subjects were asked about their willingness to participate, in principle, and the extent of their participation (frequency and duration) in health education interventions under various settings and in intervention evaluation surveys using various survey methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of respondents preferred to participate in one 30–60 minutes education intervention session a year, in hospital either with a group or one-on-one with an educator. Also, the majority of respondents preferred to spend 20–30 minutes each time, completing one to two evaluation surveys per year in hospital or by mail.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When designing interventions and their evaluation surveys, it is important to consider the preferences for setting, length of participation and survey method of your target population, in order to maximize recruitment and retention efforts. Study respondents preferred short and convenient health education interventions and surveys. Therefore, brevity, convenience and choice appear to be important when designing education interventions and evaluation surveys from the perspective of our target population.</p