De-risking of Green Investments through a Green Bond Market – Empirics and a Dynamic Model

A substantial increase of green investments is still required to reach the Paris Agreement’s emission targets. Yet, capital markets to expedite green invest-ments are generically constrained. Literature has shown that governments could de-risk such investments. Empirical beta pricing and yield estimates reveal some public involvement in the green bonds market, especially for long ma-turity bonds. We provide empirical evidence that Governments and Multilateral organizations can de-risk green investments by supporting the issuance of green bonds in contrast to private green bonds - that show higher yields, volatility and beta prices - and conventional energy bonds, that are more volatile due to oil price variations. Since lower betas also mean lower capital costs, we use those empirical results and run a dynamic model with two types of firms, modeling the economic behavior of innovators (renewable energy firms) and incumbents (fos-sil fuel firms). The simulations of our model show that de-risked interest rates help to phase in renewable energy firms in the market and avoid a sharp debt increase. However, when the new entrants carry negative pay-offs for a longer time, it might not be sufficient to keep the debt low and to avoid a shake-out in the market. Subsidies and carbon taxation can complement the role of the de-risked interest rates and expedite the energy transition. Beside deterministic model variants, we also explore a stochastic version of the model

Effectiveness of a home-based pulmonary rehabilitation programme in pulmonary function and health related quality of life for patients with pulmonary tuberculosis: a pilot study

Background: Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) often develop impairment in pulmonary function due to anatomical changes secondary to the illness. Physiotherapy in the form of pulmonary rehabilitation has been advocated.Objective: The aim of the study was to determine whether adherence to a six-week home-based pulmonary rehabilitation programme (PRP) improved the baseline measurements of lung function, exercise tolerance and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients receiving out-patient treatment for PTB.Method: A single blinded randomized control study design was used to assess the effects of a six-week home- based PRP in patients receiving treatment for PTB at a local clinic in Khayelitsha, Western Cape. We evaluated lung function by spirometry (MINATO AUTOSPIRO-model no. AZ-505), exercise tolerance using the 6-min-walk test (6MWT), the Borg exercise exertion scale and HRQoL using the EQ-5 D questionnaire in an intervention group (n=34) and a control group (n=33). The trend of the effects of the PRP on lung function was towards increases, but there was no statistical difference between the intervention and control groups at the end of the sixth week in the values of FVC (p=0.2; 95% CI -0.9 to 0.51) as well as FEV1 (p=0.1; 95% CI -0.07 to 0.51). Similar trend was observed for exercise tolerance, and there was no significant difference in HRQoL (p=0.789).Conclusion: The outcome of the study provides motivation for further consideration and implementation of a pulmonary rehabilitation programme for patients with PTB.Keywords: Pulmonary rehabilitation, pulmonary tuberculosi

The mathematics of ageing:

Age is a crucial variable in social sciences and particularly in population dynamics. In this paper, we link methods from formal demography and Operations Research to investigate age-structured models to study the greying of academia. As scientific productivity is usually found to decrease at advanced ages, there was a vivid discussion on the ageing among tenured professors and faculty staff of universities. We investigate population ageing in academia from two perspectives. First, we propose a two-state optimal control model to explain the substantial variations of scientific production over the life cycle of researchers. We identify conditions under which typical hump-shaped age-specific patterns of scientific production turn out to be optimal for individual researchers. The second part of the paper deals with the dynamics of the age structure of scientific institutions. Similar to the university professors, many European learned societies experienced a rapid ageing of their member population, where they face the dilemma that keeping young, i.e. electing young entrants, has the drawback of reducing the replacement rate of members. It turns out that electing a mix of young and old members delivers the optimal solution of the problem, i.e. guaranteeing a young age structure, while ensuring a high recruitment rate

On the Matthew effect in research careers: Abnormality on the boundary

The observation that a socioeconomic agent with a high reputation gets a disproportionately higher recognition for the same work than an agent with lower reputation is typical in career development and wealth. This phenomenon, which is known as Matthew effect in the literature, leads to an increasing inequality over time. The present paper employs an optimal control model to study the implications of the Matthew effect on the optimal efforts of a scientist into reputation. The solution of the model exhibits, for suffiently low effort costs, a new type of unstable equilibrium at which effort is at its upper bound. This equilibrium, which we denote as Stalling Equilibrium, serves as a threshold level separating success and failure in academia. In addition we show that at the Stalling Equilibrium the solution can be abnormal. We provide a clear economic interpretation for this solution characteristic

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using impulse control theory

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides an economic partial equilibrium model, which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. We find that, the higher the flood risk and the more the firm values the future, i.e. the more sustainable the firm plans, the more the firm will invest in flood defense. Investments in productive capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic settings have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to generate higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial productive capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed productive capital

Preoperative Nutritional Conditioning of Crohn's Patients-Systematic Review of Current Evidence and Practice.

Crohn's disease is an incurable and frequently progressive entity with major impact on affected patients. Up to half of patients require surgery in the first 10 years after diagnosis and over 75% of operated patients require at least one further surgery within lifetime. In order to minimize surgical risk, modifiable risk factors such as nutritional status need to be optimized. This systematic review on preoperative nutritional support in adult Crohn's patients between 1997 and 2017 aimed to provide an overview on target populations, screening modalities, routes of administration, and expected benefits. Pertinent study characteristics (prospective vs. retrospective, sample size, control group, limitations) were defined a priori. Twenty-nine studies were retained, of which 14 original studies (9 retrospective, 4 prospective, and 1 randomized controlled trial) and 15 reviews. Study heterogeneity was high regarding nutritional regimens and outcome, and meta-analysis could not be performed. Most studies were conducted without matched control group and thus provide modest level of evidence. Consistently, malnutrition was found to be a major risk factor for postoperative complications, and both enteral and parenteral routes were efficient in decreasing postoperative morbidity. Current guidelines for nutrition in general surgery apply also to Crohn's patients. The route of administration should be chosen according to disease presentation and patients' condition. Further studies are needed to strengthen the evidence

What Does an Exemplary Middle School Mathematics Teacher Look Like? The Use of a Professional Development Rubric

A School University Research Network (SURN) committee composed of current mathematics teachers, central office math supervisors, building administrators, mathematicians, and mathematics educators researched numerous sources regarding best practices in mathematics instruction. The resulting professional development rubric synthesizes their findings and can serve a professional development role by providing teachers and administrators with a tool to develop clarity and consensus on best mathematics instructional practices, and how these practices are implemented in the classroom. It is also being used as a tool for cooperating teachers in their supervision of student teachers and as a reflective method for self-evaluation

On the Matthew effect on Individual Investments into Skills in Arts, Sports and Science

The paper describes the process of capital accumulation subject to the following characteristics: (i) convex returns to (human) capital; (ii) the need to self _nance the investment. This set up is applicable to explain some peculiarities in arts, sports and science, inter alia, the \Matthew effect" coined in Merton (1968) to explain why prominent researchers get disproportional credit for their work. The potential young artist's (or sportsman's or even scientist's) optimal strategies include quitting, or continuing and even expanding one's human capital in a profession. Both outcomes are separated by a threshold level in human capital. In addition, it can be optimal to stay in business although consumption falls and stays at the subsistence level (we call this outcome a \Sisyphus point")