Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why

This perspective reviews recent empirical research about investment treaty arbitration in order to help create a more accurate framework for policy choices and dispute-resolution strategies

国际投资仲裁：胜诉、败诉及其原因

本文回顾了最近有关投资条约仲裁的实证研究，目的是为了帮助创建一个更准确的政策选择和争端解决的战略框架

Diffusion of a liquid nanoparticle on a disordered substrate

We perform molecular dynamic simulations of liquid nanoparticles deposited on a disordered substrate. The motion of the nanoparticle is characterised by a 'stick and roll' diffusive process. Long simulation times ($\simeq \mu s$), analysis of mean square displacements and stacking time distribution functions demonstrate that the nanoparticle undergoes a normal diffusion in spite of long sticking times. We propose a phenomenological model for the size and temperature dependence of the diffusion coefficient in which the activation energy scales as $N^{1/3}$.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Language discrimination by human newborns and by cotton-top tamarin monkeys

Humans, but no other animal, make meaningful use of spoken language. What is unclear, however, is whether this capacity depends on a unique constellation of perceptual and neurobiological mechanisms, or whether a subset of such mechanisms are shared with other organisms. To explore this problem, we conducted parallel experiments on human newborns and cotton-top tamarin monkeys to assess their ability to discriminate unfamiliar languages. Using a habituation-dishabituation procedure, we show that human newborns and tamarins can discriminate sentences from Dutch and Japanese, but not if the sentences are played backwards. Moreover, the cues for discrimination are not present in backward speech. This suggests that the human newborns' tuning to certain properties of speech relies on general processes of the primate auditory system

Isotope Effect in the Superfluid Density of HTS Cuprates: Stripes, Pseudogap and Impurities

Underdoped cuprates exhibit a normal-state pseudogap, and their spins and doped carriers tend to spatially separate into 1- or 2-D stripes. Some view these as central to superconductivity, others as peripheral and merely competing. Using La$_{2-x}$Sr$_x$Cu$_{1-y}$Zn$_y$O$_4$ we show that an oxygen isotope effect in $T_c$ and in the superfluid density can be used to distinguish between the roles of stripes and pseudogap and also to detect the presence of impurity scattering. We conclude that stripes and pseudogap are distinct, and both compete and coexist with superconductivity.Comment: Revised submission to PRL with added appendix on a possible isotope effect in the effective mass, 4 pages, 3 figure