Competitive conditions in the Central and Eastern European banking systems

The aim of this study is to conduct a large-scale empirical analysis of the competitive conditions in the banking systems of Central and Eastern European countries. The well-known model of Panzar and Rosse (1987) is implemented on bank-level data over the period 1999-2006. The estimates based on the separate country panels suggest a wide variation in the competitive conditions of the banking systems examined, with some being characterized as (monopolistically) competitive and other as non-competitive. Finally, the results from the full sample indicate that bank revenue is substantially influenced by structural and macroeconomic conditions.Market power; Central and Eastern European banks; Panzar-Rosse model

The joint estimation of bank-level market power and efficiency

The aim of this study is to provide a methodology for the joint estimation of efficiency and market power of individual banks. The proposed method utilizes the separate implications of the new empirical industrial organization and the stochastic frontier literatures and suggests identification using the local maximum likelihood (LML) technique. Through LML, estimation of market power of individual banks becomes feasible, while a number of restrictive theoretical and empirical assumptions are relaxed. The empirical analysis is carried out on the basis of EMU and US bank data and the results suggest small differences in the market power and efficiency levels of banks between the two samples. Market power estimates indicate fairly competitive conduct in general; however, heterogeneity in market power estimates is substantial across banks within each sample. The latter result suggests that while the banking industries examined are fairly competitive in general, the practice of some banks deviates from the average behavior, and this finding has important policy implications. Finally, efficiency and market power present a negative relationship, which is in line with the so-called “quiet life hypothesis”.Efficiency; market power; local maximum likelihood

Interest rates and bank risk-taking

In a recent line of research the low interest-rate environment of the early to mid 2000s is viewed as an element that triggered increased risk-taking appetite of banks in search for yield. This paper uses approximately 18,000 annual observations on euro area banks over the period 2001-2008 and presents strong empirical evidence that low interest rates indeed increase bank risk-taking substantially. This result is robust across a number of different specifications that account, inter alia, for the potential endogeneity of interest rates and/or the dynamics of bank risk. Notably, among the banks of the large euro area countries this effect is less pronounced for French institutions, which held on average a relatively low level of risk assets. Finally, the distributional effects of interest rates on bank risk-taking due to individual bank characteristics reveal that the impact of interest rates on risk assets is diminished for banks with higher equity capital and is amplified for banks with higher off-balance sheet items.Interest rates; bank risk-taking; panel data; euro area banks

Identification of a Loan Supply Function: A Cross-Country Test for the Existence of a Bank Lending Channel

Using the theoretical predictions of the Bernanke-Blinder (1988) model, we seek to examine the existence of a bank lending channel through the empirical identification of a loan supply function and to assess the impact of differential bank characteristics on banks’ ability to supply loans. To this end, we estimate a loan supply model and test for the restrictions implied by perfect substitutability between loans and bonds in bank portfolios. Estimations are carried out on bank panel data for 16 OECD countries, the results showing that a bank lending channel is at work in only two of them. Moreover, and contrary to standard accounts, we find that the relevance of bank characteristics is hardly a decisive factor in the identification of a loan supply function.Bank lending channel; financial structure; dynamic panels

Bank Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy Transmission

The heterogeneity in the response of banks to a change in monetary policy is an important element in the transmission of this policy through banks. This paper examines the role of bank liquidity, capitalization and market power as internal factors influencing banks’ reaction in terms of lending and risk-taking to monetary policy impulses. The ultimate impact of a monetary policy change on bank performance is also considered. The empirical analysis, using large panel datasets for the United States and the euro area, elucidates the sources of differences in the response of banks to changes in policy interest rates by disaggregating down to the individual bank level. This is achieved by the use of a Local GMM technique that also enables us to quantify the degree of heterogeneity in the transmission mechanism. It is argued that the extensive heterogeneity in banks’ response identifies overlooked consequences of bank behavior and highlights potential monetary sources of the current financial distress.Monetary policy; Bank heterogeneity; Risk-taking; Bank performance

Determinants of bank efficiency: Evidence from a semi-parametric methodology

In this paper, we use a semi-parametric two-stage model to examine the effect of bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank efficiency. This method, proposed by Simar and Wilson (2007), relaxes several deficiencies of previous two-stage analyses, which regress non-parametric estimates of bank efficiency on exogenous determinants. In particular, we propose a bootstrap procedure to be used in the second stage and we compare the results obtained to the equivalents of a Tobit model. We suggest that the Tobit regressions inaccurately provide insignificant estimates for the effect of bank size, industry concentration and economic investment on bank efficiency, a fact that illustrates the power of the new method. Since the effect of these determinants has been ambiguous in previous literature, this may be a desideratum for future research.Bank efficiency; semi-parametric models

Bank heterogeneity and monetary policy transmission

Heterogeneity in the response of banks to a change in monetary policy is an important element in the transmission of this policy through banks. This paper examines the role of bank liquidity, capitalization and market power as internal factors influencing banks’ reaction in terms of lending and risk-taking to monetary policy impulses. The ultimate impact of a monetary policy change on bank performance is also considered. The empirical analysis, using large panel datasets for the United States and the euro area, elucidates the sources of differences in the response of banks to changes in policy interest rates by disaggregating down to the individual bank level. This is achieved by the use of a Local GMM technique that also enables us to quantify the degree of heterogeneity in the transmission mechanism. It is argued that the extensive heterogeneity in banks’ response identifies overlooked consequences of bank behavior and highlights potential monetary sources of the current financial distress. JEL Classification: E44, E52, G21, C14Bank heterogeneity, bank performance, monetary policy, Risk-taking

Bank-Level Estimates of Market Power

The aim of this study is to provide an empirical methodology for the estimation of market power of individual banks. The new method employs the well-known model of Panzar and Rosse (1987) and proposes its estimation using the local regression technique. Thus, a number of restrictive assumptions regarding the properties of the production function of banks are relaxed, while the method proves successful in providing reasonable estimates of bank-level market power when applied to a large panel of banks of transition countries. The empirical results suggest that many banks in the sample deviate significantly from competitive practices and that market power varies substantially across banks in each country. Country averages of the bank-level results exhibit a very close relationship with standard, industry-level Panzar-Rosse estimates.Bank output; Market power; bank-level; local regression

Anxious periods and bank lending

Using a number of theoretical considerations, we define distinct periods of anxiety for key economic agents that are involved in lending decisions; namely, consumers, CEOs, and banks. The main characteristic of anxious periods is that the perceptions and expectations about economic conditions worsen for these agents even though the economy is not in a recession. Subsequently, we study the lending behavior of US banks during the three distinct pools of anxious quarters from 1985-2010, using bank-level data. We find that banks’ lending falls when consumers and banks are anxious, and this effect is more pronounced when banks hold a high level of credit risk. Yet, in those anxious periods that were followed by recessions, the negative impact of anxiety on loan growth is significantly weaker for banks with high-credit risk that points to the existence of a moral-hazard mechanism. We also find significant differentiation in banks’ lending within anxious periods across different loan categories. We contend that these findings point to the identification of an ‘expectations channel’ in banks’ lending that exists throughout the business cycle.Banks’ lending; Anxious periods; Consumers; CEOs; Banks; Bank characteristics