63 research outputs found
The Rationality of Prejudices
We model an -player repeated prisoner's dilemma in which players are given traits (e.g., height, age, wealth) which, we assume, affect their behavior. The relationship between traits and behavior is unknown to other players. We then analyze the performance of âprejudicedâ strategiesâstrategies that draw inferences based on the observation of some or all of these traits, and extrapolate the inferred behavior to other carriers of these traits. Such prejudiced strategies have the advantage of learning rapidly, and hence of being well adapted to rapidly changing conditions that might result, for example, from high migration or birth rates. We find that they perform remarkably well, and even systematically outperform both Tit-For-Tat and ALLD when the population changes rapidly
Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict
The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths
How Wealth Accumulation Can Promote Cooperation
Explaining the emergence and stability of cooperation has been a central challenge in biology, economics and sociology. Unfortunately, the mechanisms known to promote it either require elaborate strategies or hold only under restrictive conditions. Here, we report the emergence, survival, and frequent domination of cooperation in a world characterized by selfishness and a strong temptation to defect, when individuals can accumulate wealth. In particular, we study games with local adaptation such as the prisoner's dilemma, to which we add heterogeneity in payoffs. In our model, agents accumulate wealth and invest some of it in their interactions. The larger the investment, the more can potentially be gained or lost, so that present gains affect future payoffs. We find that cooperation survives for a far wider range of parameters than without wealth accumulation and, even more strikingly, that it often dominates defection. This is in stark contrast to the traditional evolutionary prisoner's dilemma in particular, in which cooperation rarely survives and almost never thrives. With the inequality we introduce, on the contrary, cooperators do better than defectors, even without any strategic behavior or exogenously imposed strategies. These results have important consequences for our understanding of the type of social and economic arrangements that are optimal and efficient
Plasma amino acids and neopterin in healthy persons with Downâs syndrome
In persons with Downâs syndrome (DS) immunological abnormalities as well as hypothyroidism and Alzheimer type dementia are frequently observed. In addition, the activity of the enzyme cystathionine beta-synthase (CBS) is over-expressed which results in an altered homocysteine metabolism
Timbre from Sound Synthesis and High-level Control Perspectives
International audienceExploring the many surprising facets of timbre through sound manipulations has been a common practice among composers and instrument makers of all times. The digital era radically changed the approach to sounds thanks to the unlimited possibilities offered by computers that made it possible to investigate sounds without physical constraints. In this chapter we describe investigations on timbre based on the analysis by synthesis approach that consists in using digital synthesis algorithms to reproduce sounds and further modify the parameters of the algorithms to investigate their perceptual relevance. In the first part of the chapter timbre is investigated in a musical context. An examination of the sound quality of different wood species for xylophone making is first presented. Then the influence of instrumental control on timbre is described in the case of clarinet and cello performances. In the second part of the chapter, we mainly focus on the identification of sound morphologies, so called invariant sound structures responsible for the evocations induced by environmental sounds by relating basic signal descriptors and timbre descriptors to evocations in the case of car door noises, motor noises, solid objects, and their interactions
Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and
disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence
strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common
approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because
they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and
often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level
collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We
highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop
undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization
in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.Comment: 67 pages, 25 figures; accepted for publication in Journal of
Statistical Physics [for related work see http://www.futurict.eu/
Gaining historical and international relations insights from social media: spatio-temporal real-world news analysis using Twitter
Views to a war: systematic differences in media and military reporting of the war in Iraq
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