Does undernutrition increase the risk of lost to follow-up in adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa? Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION:Undernutrition is considered a marker for poor prognosis among people living with HIV (PLHIV), particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where undernutrition and HIV are both highly prevalent. Evidence suggests that undernutrition (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2) is one of the main factors that significantly increases the risk of lost to follow-up (LTFU) in PLHIV. However, primary studies in SSA have reported inconsistent findings on the relationship between undernutrition and LTFU among adults living with HIV. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic review which aimed to summarise the available evidence. Hence, this review aims to determine the pooled effect of undernutrition on LTFU among adults living with HIV in SSA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, and, for grey literature, Google Scholar will be systematically searched to include relevant articles published since 2005. Studies reporting the effect of undernutrition on LTFU in adults living with HIV in SSA will be included. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will be used for quality assessment. Data from eligible studies will be extracted using a standardised data extraction tool. Heterogeneity between included studies will be assessed using Cochrane Q-test and I2 statistics. The Egger's and Begg's tests at a 5% significance level will be used to evaluate publication bias. As heterogeneity is anticipated, the pooled effect size will be estimated using a random-effects model. The final effect size will be reported using the adjusted HR with a 95% CI. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:Ethical approval is not required for a protocol for a systematic review. The results of this systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will be publicly available. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42021277741

Effects of undernutrition on opportunistic infections among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Using inverse-probability weighting

Background Opportunistic infections (OIs) are the leading causes of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality (accounting for 94.1% of all deaths) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). Despite evidence suggested that undernutrition significantly increases the risk of OIs in PLHIV, to our knowledge, no study has examined the actual effects of undernutrition on OIs in this population, particularly in low-income countries. Thus, this study examined the effects of undernutrition on OIs in adults living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 841adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data from participants’ medical records were extracted using a project-specific data extraction checklist. The Kaplan Meier survival curve estimated the OIs free survival time. The effects of undernutrition on time to develop OIs was estimated using inverse-probability weighting. Finally, regression coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were reported, with a statistical significance of p &lt; 0.05. Results Of 841 study participants, 262 (31.2%) developed OIs, and the overall incidence rate was 16.7 (95% CI: 14.8, 18.8) per 100 person-years. The incWidence of OIs in undernourished participants (21/100 person-years, 95% CI: 17.8, 27.4) was higher than well-nourished participants (15.0/100 person-years, 95% CI: 12.9, 17.4). When everyone in the population of interest is well-nourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 26.5 (coefficient: 26.5, 95% CI: 20.6, 32.4, p &lt; 0.001) months. When everyone in the population of interest is undernourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 17.7 (95% CI: 12.8, 22.6) months. However, when everyone is undernourished, average time to develop OIs decreases by 8.8 (coefficient: -8.8, 95% CI: -16.6, -1.0, p = 0.026) months. Lastly, exposure to undernourishment (intervention) (ratio of average treatment effects to well-nourished potential outcome means in this study was a 32.5% reduction in OIs among adults living with HIV on ART. Conclusion We found that undernutrition significantly shortened time to develop OIs in adults living with HIV. This implies that the occurrence of OIs in this vulnerable population can be improved through different cost-effective nutritional interventions, such as routine nutritional assessments and education. </jats:sec

Factors associated with prelacteal feeding practices in Debre Berhan district, North Shoa, Central Ethiopia: a cross-sectional, community-based study

Abstract Background Prelacteal feeding is one of the major harmful newborn feeding practices and is top on the list of global public health concerns. The practice deprives newborns of valuable nutrients and protection of colostrum and exposes them to preventable morbidity and mortality. Studying the prevalence and factors influencing the prelacteal feeding practice of mothers will help program managers and implementers to properly address broad major public health problems. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the prevalence of prelacteal feeding practices and its associated factors among mother-infant dyads in the Debre Berhan district of North Shoa administrative zone, central Ethiopia. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from January through to April 2014 among 634 mother-infant dyads. The data were entered into EPI Info version 3.5.1. (CDC, Atlanta, Georgia). All statistical analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) research IBM version 20.0. The prevalence of prelacteal feeding was determined using the ‘recall since birth’ method. Multi-variable logistic regression analysis was employed to control confounders in determining the association between prelacteal feeding practices and selected independent variables. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR), with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) and P < 0.05 was used to claim statistical significance. Results The prevalence of prelacteal feeding practice was 14.2% (95% CI: 11.00–17.00%). Slightly greater than half, 48 (53.3%) of prelacteal fed newborns were given butter. Home delivery was a major risk factor for practicing prelacteal feeding. Mothers who delivered their indexed infant at home practiced prelacteal feeding over four folds more than mothers who delivered in a health institution (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 4.70; 95% CI: 2.56–8.60, p-value = 0.001). Mothers who did not initiate breastfeeding within an hour were six times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding (AOR 5.58; 3.21–9.46, p-value = 0.001). Similarly, with regards to the occupation of mothers, farmers practiced prelacteal feedings (AOR 4.33; 95% CI: 1.73–10.81, p-value = 0.002) up to four folds more than their counterpart housewives. Mothers who can read and write are 54% less likely to practice prelacteal feeding than their counterpart, illiterate mothers, with (AOR 0.46; 95% CI: 0.22–0.98, p-value = 0.044). Conclusions In the Debre Berhan town of North Shoa administrative zone, central Ethiopia, almost one-sixth of mothers practiced prelacteal feeding. Therefore, improving access to information about appropriate newborn feeding practices, encouraging mothers to deliver their babies in health institutions and inspiring them to initiate breastfeeding within an hour of birth is recommended

Adherence of healthcare providers to malaria case management guidelines of the formal private sector in north-western Ethiopia: an implication for malaria control and elimination

Abstract Background Malaria is an infectious disease which has been globally targeted for elimination in at least 35 of 90 endemic countries by 2030. Most successful malaria elimination country programmes have engaged the private health sector in an effort to identify, document, investigate, provide effective treatment, and follow-up cases. However, there has been limited rigorous research showing evidence of adherence among healthcare providers of the formal private health sector to national malaria diagnosis and treatment guidelines in Ethiopia, starting from malaria control to elimination phases. The aims of this study were to investigate and explain the level of adherence to malaria diagnosis and treatment guidelines among healthcare providers working in formal private health facilities in north-western Ethiopia. Methods An explanatory sequential mixed method design was conducted in the West Gojjam Zone of Ethiopia. Quantitative data were extracted from 1650 medical records of adult uncomplicated malaria outpatients served in 11 private-for-profit health facilities. In addition, using a qualitative approach, 33 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with healthcare providers were conducted. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using eight steps. Results Of 1650 suspected malaria cases in adult outpatients, 80.6% (1330/1650) were screen tested using microscopy and the remainder 19.4% (320/1650) were tested using multispecies rapid diagnosis tests (RDTs). Hence, the results revealed that private healthcare providers universally adhered to diagnosis guidelines. In addition, after following-up and excluding other causes of fever, 4.1% (56/1376) patients were clinically diagnosed with uncomplicated malaria. Despite this, the proportion of private healthcare provider adherence with confirmed malaria case treatment guidelines was 20.9% (69/330). In addition, 1320 (95.9%) of adult outpatients with negative laboratory results were not treated. Some of the identified determinant factors for sub-optimal adherence of healthcare providers to malaria guidelines were interruptions in supply and lack of availability of recommended anti-malarial drugs, lack of availability of quality assured laboratory supplies, and poor knowledge of the recommendations of the national standards. Conclusions Private healthcare providers adhered to universal parasitological diagnosis, providing comprehensive counseling, and linking patients with community health workers. In addition, almost all laboratory negative patients were not treated with anti-malarial drugs. However, only one-fifth of confirmed patients were treated in line with national guideline recommendations. Malaria control and elimination efforts across Ethiopia could be improved through establishing a collaborative function of a win-win public private mix partnership model. In addition, including the data of the private health sector in the health information system could show real malaria burden and use the information to improve the adherence to malaria diagnosis, treatment, and reporting standards within the targeted era of elimination. Therefore, building the capacity of private healthcare providers and ensuring the availability of all nationally recommended drugs and supplies in private health sector facilities is recommended to improve the quality of services

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval 18.4-19.0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58.8% (58.2-59.3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5-49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1-70.8) for men and from 52.9 years (51.7-54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3-75.9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49.1 years (46.5-51.7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9-88.1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216.0 deaths (196.3-238.1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6-42.83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5.4 million (5.2-5.6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult tnales, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, wotnen, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Copyright C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of childhood and adolescent cancer in 2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Accurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0–19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: Globally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6–12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3–97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7–2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1–82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3–50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26·5% (26·5–26·5) of global childhood cancer DALYs. Interpretation: The GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC), and St. Baldrick's Foundation