What Happened to the East German Housing Market? – A Historical Perspective on the Role of Public Funding –

The paper analyses the development of the East German housing market after the reunification of the former German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany in 1990. We analyse the dynamics of the East German housing market within the framework of the well-known stock-flow model, proposed by DiPasquale and Wheaton. We show that the today observable disequilibrium to a large extend is caused by post-unification housing policy and its strong fiscal incentives to invest into the housing stock. Moreover, in line with the stylized empirical facts, we show that ‘hidden reserves’ of the housing market were reactivated since the economy of East Germany became market organized. Since initial undersupply was overcome faster than politicians expected, the implemented fiscal stimuli were too strong. In contrast to the widespread opinion that outward migration caused the observable vacancies, this paper shows that not weakness of demand but supply side policies caused the observable disequilibrium.housing market transition, housing subsidies, housing supply, east germany

Keeping the Bubble Alive! The Effects of Urban Renewal and Demolition Subsidies in the East German Housing Market

German urban renewal programs are favoring the cities in the Eastern part since the re-unification in 1990. This was accompanied additionally by attractive tax incentives, designed as an accelerated declining balance method of depreciation for housing investments during the late 1990s. The accumulated needs for comfortable housing after 40 years of a disastrous housing policy of the GDR era were generally accepted as justification for the subvention policy. But various subsidies and tax incentives caused a construction boom, false allocations, and a price bubble in Eastern Germany. After recognizing that the expansion of housing supply was not in line with the demographic development and that high vacancy rates were jeopardizing housing companies and their financial backers, policy changed in 2001. Up to now, the government provides demolition grants to reduce the vast oversupply. By means of a real option approach, it is ex-plained how different available forms of subsidies and economic incentives for landlords lift real estate values. The option value representing growth expectations and opportunities is calculated as an observable market value less an estimated fundamental value. Empirical results disclose higher option premiums for cities in Eastern Germany and a strong correlation of the option premium with urban renewal spending.real option, housing market, East Germany, urban renewal subsidies

Industry Concentration and Regional Innovative Performance – Empirical Evidence for Eastern Germany

Regarding technological innovativeness, the transformed economy of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) clearly lags behind the Western part of the country. To face this weakness, a broad mixture of policy measures was carried out in recent years. Particular attention is drawn to the development of industry concentrations and economic ‘clusters’. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policy measures regarding how industry concentrations in fact promote innovative performance in Eastern Germany. The present study tries to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between industry concentration in Eastern Germany and regional innovative performance. Our empirical analysis is based upon the number of patent applications of 22 manufacturing industries in 22 Eastern German planning regions. The estimated regression models indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between the degree of industry concentration and innovative performance. An exceedingly high degree of industry concentration in one region hampers regional innovative output. We discuss policy implications of our findings and give recommendations for future refinement of ‘cluster’-supporting policy schemes in Eastern Germany.industry concentration; agglomeration; specialization; cluster; innovation; patents; east germany

Technological capability of foreign and West German investors in East Germany

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role for countries or regions in the process of economic catching-up since it is assumed – among other things – that FDI brings in new production technology and knowledge. This paper gives an overview about the development of FDI in East Germany based on official data provided by the Federal Bank of Germany. The investigation also includes a comparison of FDI in East Germany to Central East European countries. But the main focus of the paper is an analysis of the technological capability comparing majority foreign and West German owned firms to majority East German owned firms. It shows that foreign and West German subsidiaries in East Germany are indeed characterized by superior technological capability with respect to all indicators looked at (product innovation, research & development, organizational changes etc.).

International Fragmentation of Production and the Labour Input into Germany’s Exports – An Input-Output-Analysis

The import penetration of exports has become a topic of public debate, particularly in the context of Germany’s position as one of the world’s leading exporters. The growth in the volume of intermediate products purchased from abroad for subsequent processing into export goods in Germany seems to be undermining the importance of exports as a driver of domestic production and employment. The gains that arise from an increase in exports seem to have been offset by the losses caused by the crowding out of local production by imports. Empirical evidence on the impact of this international integration of the goods market on the German labour market is ambiguous. Short-term negative effects on employment are claimed to be offset by the long-term benefit that the jobs lost in the short run will eventually be replaced by higher-skilled jobs with better perspectives. Against this background, the following hypothesis is tested empirically: Germany is poor in natural resources, but rich in skilled labour. In line with the Heckscher- Ohlin theory, Germany should therefore specialize in the production of export goods and services that are relatively intensive in these factors and should import those goods and services that are relatively intensive in unskilled labour. The empirical part of the paper deals with the extent of the German export penetration by imports. At first, it analyses by what ways imports are affecting the exports directly and indirectly and shows the consequences of import penetration of exports for the national output and employment. Secondly, consequences for employment are split in different skill types of labour. These issues are discussed with the standard open static inputoutput- model. The data base is a time series of official input-output tables. The employment effects for Germany divided by skill types of labour are investigated using skill matrices generated by the authors.international trade, labour and skills market interactions, input-output models

Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh). The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.microeconometric evaluation, matching, vocational education, east germany

Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages – An Analysis for Germany

Against the background of the current discussion on the introduction of statutory minimum wages in Germany, this paper analyzes the potential employment and fiscal effects of such a policy. Based on estimated labor demand elasticities obtained from a structural labor demand model, the empirical results imply that the introduction of minimum wages in Germany will be associated with significant employment losses that are concentrated among marginal and low- and semi-skilled full-time workers. Even though minimum wages will lead to increased public revenues from income taxes and social security benefits, they will result in a significant fiscal burden, due to increased expenditures for unemployment benefits and decreased revenues from corporate taxes.Minimum wages, employment, public budget, fiscal effects

The effects of public R&D subsidies on firms' innovation activities: the case of Eastern Germany

This study analyzes the effects of public R&D policy schemes on the innovation activities of firms located in Eastern Germany. The main question in this context is whether public funds stimulate R&D activities or simply crowd out privately financed R&D. Empirically, we investigate the average causal effects of all public R&D schemes in Eastern Germany using a non?parametric matching approach. Compared to the case where no public financial means are provided, it turns out that firms increase their innovation activities by about four percentage points. --Public Innovation Subsidies,Non?parametric Matching

The effect of subsidies on R&D investment and success: do subsidy history and size matter?

This study provides insights into the effects of public R&D grants on R&D input and output of firms from Germany. Previous research has shown that the allocation of R&D project grants is rather stable regarding the pool of beneficiaries. The question is whether this participation pattern can be justified by its realized effects. In addition, the impact of the grant size on the effects is investigated. Therefore, I allow to a certain extent for heterogeneous treatment effects in these two dimensions. Using a sample of about 8,500 observations, a non-parametric matching approach with multiple treatments is applied to estimate the effects of public R&D grants on firm's R&D input. The results show that particularly frequently given grants as well as medium and large grants are suitable to increase the scope of firm-financed R&D plans. For the analysis of the effects on firm's R&D output the R&D expenditures are disentangled in R&D which would have been spent in the absence of the grant and publicly induced R&D, including the grant and the effect on private R&D expenditures. Basically both types of R&D are equally productive in terms of innovative output. For the statement that a rather stable pattern of program participation leads to a lower effectiveness of the instrument no evidence has been found. --R&D,Public Subsidies,Innovative Performance,Germany

ISOFAR-Newsletter No. 2, May 2004

The second newsletter of the International Society of Organic Agriculture Researhch ISOFAR contains the following information: Announcement of 1st call for papers International Scientific Conference on Organic Agriculture ISOFAR’s worldwide activities How to become an ISOFAR member ISOFAR’s structure: Sections and working groups News from the Working Groups Organic Research News from around the World Events Positions Books and Resources Contact address International Society of Organic Agriculture Research (ISOFAR) c/o Institute for Organic Agriculture IOL Prof. Dr. Ulrich Köpke (President) Ms. Anke Dunsche (Secretary) Katzenburgweg 3 D-53115 Bonn Tel. +49 228 735616 Fax +49 228 735617 E-Mail [email protected] Homepage http://www.isofar.or