Data-driven Switched Affine Modeling for Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a well-consolidated technique to design optimal control strategies, leveraging the capability of a mathematical model to predict the system’s behavior over a predictive horizon. However, building physics-based models for large-scale systems, such as buildings and process control, can be cost and time prohibitive. To overcome this problem we propose in this paper a methodology to exploit machine learning techniques (i.e. regression trees and random forests) in order to build a state-space switched affine dynamical model of a large scale system only using historical data. Finite Receding Horizon Control (RHC) setup using control-oriented data-driven models based on regression trees and random forests is presented as well. A comparison with an optimal MPC benchmark and a related methodology is provided on an energy management system to show the performance of the proposed modeling framework. Simulation results show that the proposed approach is very close to the optimum and provides better performance with respect to the related methodology in terms of cost function optimization

Robust Stability of Multi-Hop Networks

We propose formal models for analyzing robustness of multi-hop control networks, where data from sensors to controllers and from controllers to actuators is sent through a multi-hop communication network subject to disruptions. When communication disruptions are long, compared to the speed of the control system, we propose to model them as permanent link failures. We show that the complexity of analyzing such failures is NP-hard, and discuss a way to overcome this limitation for practical cases using compositional analysis. For typical packet transmission errors (errors with short time span), we propose a transient error model where links fail for one time slot independently of the past and of other links. We provide sufficient conditions for almost sure stability (stability with probability one) in presence of transient link failures, and give efficient decision procedures. The last part of the paper deals with errors that have random time span. We show that, under some conditions, the permanent failure model can be used as a reliable abstraction

Data-driven model predictive control using random forests for building energy optimization and climate control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a model-based technique widely and successfully used over the past years to improve control systems performance. A key factor prohibiting the widespread adoption of MPC for complex systems such as buildings is related to the difficulties (cost, time and effort) associated with the identification of a predictive model of a building. To overcome this problem, we introduce a novel idea for predictive control based on historical building data leveraging machine learning algorithms like regression trees and random forests. We call this approach Data-driven model Predictive Control (DPC), and we apply it to three different case studies to demonstrate its performance, scalability, and robustness. In the first case study we consider a benchmark MPC controller using a bilinear building model, then we apply DPC to a data-set simulated from such bilinear model and derive a controller based only on the data. Our results demonstrate that DPC can provide comparable performance with respect to MPC applied to a perfectly known mathematical model. In the second case study, we apply DPC to a 6 story 22 zone building model in EnergyPlus, for which model-based control is not economical and practical due to extreme complexity, and address a Demand Response problem. Our results demonstrate scalability and efficiency of DPC showing that DPC provides the desired power curtailment with an average error of 3%. In the third case study, we implement and test DPC on real data from an off-grid house located in L’Aquila, Italy. We compare the total amount of energy saved with respect to the classical bang-bang controller, showing that we can perform an energy saving up to 49.2%. Our results demonstrate the robustness of our method to uncertainties both in real data acquisition and weather forecast