Evidence Evaluation: Measure Z Corresponds to Human Utility Judgments Better than Measure L and Optimal-Experimental-Design Models

Evidence evaluation is a crucial process in many human activities, spanning from medical diagnosis to impression formation. The present experiments investigated which, if any, normative model best conforms to people’s intuition about the value of the obtained evidence. Psychologists, epistemologists, and philosophers of science have proposed several models to account for people’s intuition about the utility of the obtained evidence with respect either to a focal hypothesis or to a constellation of hypotheses. We pitted against each other the so called optimal-experimental-design models (i.e., Bayesian diagnosticity, log10 diagnosticity, information gain, Kullback-Leibler distance, probability gain, and impact) and measures L and Z to compare their ability to describe humans’ intuition about the value of the obtained evidence. Participants received words-and-numbers scenarios concerning two hypotheses and binary features. They were asked to evaluate the utility of “yes” and “no” answers to questions about some features possessed in different proportions (i.e., the likelihoods) by two types of extraterrestrial creatures (corresponding to two mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses). Participants evaluated either how an answer was helpful or how an answer decreased/increased their beliefs with respect either to a single hypothesis or to both hypotheses. We fitted mixed-effects models and we used the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values to compare the competing models of the value of the obtained evidence. Overall, the experiments showed that measure Z was the best-fitting model of participants’ judgments of the value of obtained answers. We discussed the implications for the human hypothesis-evaluation process

How a Technology Identity Can Enhance the Diffusion of Good Design Practices in Product Sound Design

People are plugged into an intangible sound universe. But only a tiny part of the sounds we are exposed to have been purposefully designed. Recently, designers are bashfully approaching these intangible products’ quality. Product Sound Design represents, in fact, a promising research field still scarcely explored. The design community is answering this concern through new design methods. An Italian university developed a patented method-and-tool, conceived to collect, analyze, and recreate various sounds to develop a new generation of products with designed mechanical (and, eventually, digital) sounds. Spreading this innovation within the design community is fundamental to stimulate future more focused and aware practices. As well as all new technologies, the new patent didn’t have its own identity from the beginning. Extensive work conducted with the scientific approach has therefore been undertaken to redesign its identity to make its disruptiveness intelligible and understandable

Influence of Root Reinforcement on Shallow Landslide Distribution: A Case Study in Garfagnana (Northern Tuscany, Italy)

In this work, we evaluated the influence of root structure on shallow landslide distribution. Root density measurements were acquired in the field and the corresponding root cohesion was estimated. Data were acquired from 150 hillslope deposit trenches dug in areas either devoid or affected by shallow landslides within the Garfagnana Valley (northern Tuscany, Italy). Results highlighted a correlation between the root reinforcement and the location of measurement sites. Namely, lower root density was detected within shallow landslides, with respect to neighboring areas. Root area ratio (RAR) data allowed us to estimate root cohesion by the application of the revised version of the Wu and Waldron Model. Then, we propose a new method for the assimilation of the lateral root reinforcement into the infinite slope model and the limit equilibrium approach by introducing the equivalent root cohesion parameter. The results fall within the range of root cohesion values adopted in most of the physically based shallow landslide susceptibility models known in the literature (mean values ranging between ca. 2 and 3 kPa). Moreover, the results are in line with the scientific literature that has demonstrated the link between root mechanical properties, spatial variability of root reinforcement, and shallow landslide locations

Ringdowns for black holes with scalar hair: the large mass case

Deviations from General Relativity can alter the quasi-normal mode (QNM) ringdown of perturbed black holes. It is known that a shift-symmetric (hence massless) scalar can only introduce black hole hair if it couples to the Gauss-Bonnet invariant, in which case the scalar charge is fixed with respect to the black hole mass and controlled by the strength of that coupling. The charge per unit mass decreases with the mass and can, therefore, be used as a perturbative parameter for black holes that are sufficiently large with respect to the scale suppressing the deviation from General Relativity or the Standard model. We construct an effective field theory scheme for QNMs using this perturbative parameter to capture deviations from Kerr for both the background and the perturbations. We demonstrate that up to second order in the charge per unit mass, QNMs can be calculated by solving standard linearised perturbation equations for the Kerr metric with sources depending on solutions of the same equations up to first order. It follows that corrections to the QNM frequencies are heavily suppressed for sufficiently massive black holes, meaning that LISA is very unlikely to detect any evidence of scalar hair in ringdown signals.Comment: 6 page

The situational version of the brief COPE: Dimensionality and relationships with goal-related variables

This study is aimed at investigating the dimensionality of the situational version of the Brief COPE, a questionnaire that is frequently used to assess a broad range of coping responses to specific difficulties, by comparing five different factor models highlighted in previous studies. It also aimed at exploring the relationships among coping responses, personal goal commitment and progress. The study involved 606 adults (male = 289) ranging in age from 19 to 71. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we compared five models and assessed relationships of coping responses with goal commitment and progress. The results confirmed the theoretical factor structure of the situational Brief COPE. All the 14 dimensions showed acceptable reliability and relationships with goal commitment and progress, attesting the reliability and usefulness of this measure to evaluate coping responses to specific events

Longitudinal umbilical vein blood flow changes in normal and growth-retarded fetuses

Objective. To explore whether the umbilical vein blood flow of growth-retarded fetuses with normal Doppler parameters changes over time differently to that of normally grown fetuses. Methods. Fifteen consecutive women whose fetus was diagnosed to be growth restricted were compared with 30 women whose fetus was normally grown. Two ultrasonographic evaluations were conducted at 2-weekly intervals (± 2 days) in all cases. At each sonographic evaluation, umbilical vein blood flow parameters were obtained by digital color Doppler velocity profile integration. To allow comparisons among fetuses, the umbilical vein blood flow per minute was normalized for abdominal circumference. Results. The absolute vein blood flow was lower in growth-retarded than in normally grown fetuses (209 ml/min ± 73 vs. 313 ml/min ± 72, p < 0.01). The median (range) umbilical vein blood flow normalized for abdominal circumference was significantly lower in growth-retarded than in normally grown fetuses at the first [0.70 (0.32; 1.15) vs. 1.11 (0.65; 2.07), p < 0.05] and at the second [0.71(0.30; 1.09) vs. 1.14 (0.69; 2.05), p < 0.05] sonographic evaluation. The difference in umbilical vein blood flow normalized for abdominal circumference between the second and the first examination was significantly lower in growth-retarded than in appropriate for gestational age fetuses [-0.005 (-0.08; 0.06) vs. 0.02 (-0.08; 0.1), p < 0.05]. Conclusion. This study demonstrates that umbilical vein blood flow normalized for biometric parameters is lower in growth-retarded fetuses than in healthy fetuses even in the absence of umbilical artery Doppler abnormalities

Umbilical vein blood flow in fetuses with normal and lean umbilical cord

Objective: To evaluate whether umbilical vascular coiling is correlated with the umbilical vein blood flow profile and to investigate if this is different between fetuses with a lean and those with a normal umbilical cord. Methods: Consecutive women with a singleton gestation who delivered at term and who underwent an ultrasound examination within 24 h from delivery were studied. Umbilical cord and vessel areas were calculated. Umbilical vein blood flow parameters were obtained by digital color Doppler velocity profile integration. After delivery, the umbilical coiling index was calculated. Results: One hundred and sixteen women were studied. Twelve (10.3%) had a lean umbilical cord (area < 10th centile). A significant correlation was found between the umbilical coiling index and the umbilical vein blood flow (r = 0.67, P < 0.001). A significant difference between fetuses with and without a lean cord was found in terms of: umbilical coiling index (0.18 ± 0.08 vs. 0.29 ± 0.09, P < 0.005), cord area (87.6 ± 5.1 mm2 vs. 200.6 ± 34.6 mm2, P < 0.001), Wharton's jelly amount (25.7 ± 10.3 mm2 vs. 122.1 ± 33.4 mm2, P < 0.001), umbilical vein blood flow (93.7 ± 17.8 ml/kg per min vs. 126.0 ± 23.4 ml/kg per min, P < 0.001), and umbilical vein blood flow mean velocity (6.6 ± 2.7 cm/s vs. 9.0 ± 3.6 cm/s, P < 0.05). The proportion of fetuses with an umbilical vein blood flow < 80 ml/kg per min was higher when the cord was lean than when it was normal (25% vs. 1.9%, P < 0.01). Conclusions: Lean umbilical cords differ from normal cords not only from a structural point of view but also in the umbilical vein blood flow characteristics. This could explain the increased incidence of intrapartum complications and fetal growth restriction among fetuses with a lean and/or hypocoiled cord

CDC in brief 2013

With the start of the 113th Congress, we\u2019d like to take an opportunity to (re)introduce the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and provide some helpful information about our agency and its work. This E-Brief contains links to useful information about CDC\u2019s science, budget, and presence on the ground. For quick access to additional information about CDC\u2019s work, please contact the CDC Washington Office at (202) 245-0600, and see below for information about how CDC Washington can help you.CS238048-6What CDC does -- Fast facts -- CDC on the ground -- How can CDC Washington help you?201

Olfactory receptor 984: a new target for obesity in rats and humans?

Aims: Obesity is a complex multifactorial and heterogeneous condition with an important genetic component matched with behavioral and environmental factors. Feeding behavior and body weight are controlled through complex interactions between the central nervous system (CNS) and peripheral organs. The aim of the present study was to identify and functionally characterize candidate gene/s involved in the development of resistance to diet-induced obesity (DIO) in rats. Methods: RNA Chip-Technology and genotype analysis was done in 10 visceral adipose tissue samples of DR (n=5) and DIO (n=5) rats. The most promising candidate gene, OR6C3 (orthologous with the rat Olr984 and mouse Olfr788) was measured by quantitative real-time PCR in adipocytes and stromal vascular fraction (SVF) from paired samples of human visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue (AT) (n=225). Moreover, Olfr788 expression in 3T3-L1 adipocytes was measured after treatment with various hormones and cytokines. Results: Gene expression analyses showed Olr984 differently regulated in DIO-resistant rats. In the subcutaneous AT of human samples we found a down-regulation of OR6C3 compared to the visceral AT of the same population, independent of gender, glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes. OR6C3 is more expressed in SVF than in adipocytes. Interestingly, treatment of 3T3-L1 cells with insulin decreased Olfr788 expression mRNA compared to untreated controls. Conclusions: Olr984 is a novel candidate gene related to diet-induced obesity in rats. Moreover, variation in human mRNA expression in AT is related to obesity parameters and glucose homeostasis, which might be attributed to the regulatory role of insulin on the Olr984