Computerized epidemiological model of typhoid fever with age structure and its use in the planning and evaluation of antityphoid immunization and sanitation programmes

AbstractAn epidemiological model of typhoid fever[1] was further developed. Age structure was added to the population dynamics, but nonessential epidemiological classes were eliminated. Thus the dynamics of the disease in specific age groups can be studied, and the effect of public health interventions in these groups simulated. The model is based on the natural history of the disease and represents the multistate epidemiological structure which is fully computerised. It enables simulation of endemic processes in the various age groups of the population and the effects of control measures such as immunization and/or sanitation on the natural course of infection in various age strata of the population. In view that typhoid fever is a public health problem primarily in endemic areas of developing countries, the examples of model applications are related to such situations. The similation of the effectiveness of immunization and sanitation programmes are confined to the endemic conditions in such countries. The construction and the structure of the model are fully described. The computer program system is given in the Appendix, and the article provides all relevant information necessary for the use of the model for public health purposes

A Novel Laser Vaccine Adjuvant Increases the Motility of Antigen Presenting Cells

Background Development of a potent vaccine adjuvant without introduction of any side effects remains an unmet challenge in the field of the vaccine research. Methodology/Principal Findings We found that laser at a specific setting increased the motility of antigen presenting cells (APCs) and immune responses, with few local or systemic side effects. This laser vaccine adjuvant (LVA) effect was induced by brief illumination of a small area of the skin or muscle with a nondestructive, 532 nm green laser prior to intradermal (i.d.) or intramuscular (i.m.) administration of vaccines at the site of laser illumination. The pre-illumination accelerated the motility of APCs as shown by intravital confocal microscopy, leading to sufficient antigen (Ag)-uptake at the site of vaccine injection and transportation of the Ag-captured APCs to the draining lymph nodes. As a result, the number of Ag+ dendritic cells (DCs) in draining lymph nodes was significantly higher in both the 1° and 2° draining lymph nodes in the presence than in the absence of LVA. Laser-mediated increases in the motility and lymphatic transportation of APCs augmented significantly humoral immune responses directed against a model vaccine ovalbumin (OVA) or influenza vaccine i.d. injected in both primary and booster vaccinations as compared to the vaccine itself. Strikingly, when the laser was delivered by a hair-like diffusing optical fiber into muscle, laser illumination greatly boosted not only humoral but also cell-mediated immune responses provoked by i.m. immunization with OVA relative to OVA alone. Conclusion/Significance The results demonstrate the ability of this safe LVA to augment both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses. In comparison with all current vaccine adjuvants that are either chemical compounds or biological agents, LVA is novel in both its form and mechanism; it is risk-free and has distinct advantages over traditional vaccine adjuvants.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant AI070785)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant RC1 DA028378)Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grand Challenges Explorations grant # 53273)Boston BioCom (Firm) (Sponsored Research agreement grant #2008A25652

A review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dynamic models of infection transmission can project future disease burden within a population. Few dynamic measles models have been developed for low-income countries, where measles disease burden is highest. Our objective was to review the literature on measles epidemiology in low-income countries, with a particular focus on data that are needed to parameterize dynamic models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included age-stratified case reporting and seroprevalence studies with fair to good sample sizes for mostly urban African and Indian populations. We emphasized studies conducted before widespread immunization. We summarized age-stratified attack rates and seroprevalence profiles across these populations. Using the study data, we fitted a "representative" seroprevalence profile for African and Indian settings. We also used a catalytic model to estimate the age-dependent force of infection for individual African and Indian studies where seroprevalence was surveyed. We used these data to quantify the effects of population density on the basic reproductive number <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The peak attack rate usually occurred at age 1 year in Africa, and 1 to 2 years in India, which is earlier than in developed countries before mass vaccination. Approximately 60% of children were seropositive for measles antibody by age 2 in Africa and India, according to the representative seroprevalence profiles. A statistically significant decline in the force of infection with age was found in 4 of 6 Indian seroprevalence studies, but not in 2 African studies. This implies that the classic threshold result describing the critical proportion immune (<it>p</it>_c) required to eradicate an infectious disease, <it>p</it>_c= 1-1/<it>R</it>₀, may overestimate the required proportion immune to eradicate measles in some developing country populations. A possible, though not statistically significant, positive relation between population density and <it>R</it>₀for various Indian and African populations was also found. These populations also showed a similar pattern of waning of maternal antibodies. Attack rates in rural Indian populations show little dependence on vaccine coverage or population density compared to urban Indian populations. Estimated <it>R</it>₀values varied widely across populations which has further implications for measles elimination.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is possible to develop a broadly informative dynamic model of measles transmission in low-income country settings based on existing literature, though it may be difficult to develop a model that is closely tailored to any given country. Greater efforts to collect data specific to low-income countries would aid in control efforts by allowing highly population-specific models to be developed.</p