Bayesian analysis of computer code outputs

real-world phenomena. They are typically used to predict the corresponding real-world phenomenon, as in the following examples. Modern weather forecasting is done using enormously complex models of the atmosphere (and its interactions with land and sea). The primary intention is to predict future weather, given information about current conditions. Manufacturers of motor car engines build models to predict their behaviour. They are used to explore possible variations in engine design, and thereby to avoid the time and expense of actually building many unsuccessful variants in the search for an improved design. Water engineers build network ‡ow models of sewer systems, in order to predict where problems of surcharging and ‡ooding will arise under rainstorm conditions. They are then used to explore changes to the network to solve those problems. Models of atmospheric dispersion are used to predict the spread and depositio