Bayesian Estimation of the Size of a Street-Dwelling Homeless Population

A novel Bayesian technique is proposed to calculate 95% interval estimates for the size of the homeless population in the city of Edmonton using plant-capture data from Toronto, Canada. The probabilities of capture in Edmonton and Toronto are modeled as exchangeable in a hierarchical Bayesian model, and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to sample from the posterior distribution. Guidelines are recommended for applying the method to assess the accuracy of homeless counts in other cities

Chemical warfare between leafcutter ant symbionts and a co-evolved pathogen

Acromyrmex leafcutter ants form a mutually beneficial symbiosis with the fungus Leucoagaricus gongylophorus and with Pseudonocardia bacteria. Both are vertically transmitted and actively maintained by the ants. The fungus garden is manured with freshly cut leaves and provides the sole food for the ant larvae, while Pseudonocardia cultures are reared on the ant-cuticle and make antifungal metabolites to help protect the cultivar against disease. If left unchecked, specialized parasitic Escovopsis fungi can overrun the fungus-garden and lead to colony collapse. We report that Escovopsis upregulates the production of two specialized metabolites when it infects the cultivar. These compounds inhibit Pseudonocardia and one, shearinine D, also reduces worker behavioral defences and is ultimately lethal when it accumulates in ant tissues. Our results are consistent with an active evolutionary arms race between Pseudonocardia and Escovopsis, which modifies both bacterial and behavioral defences such that colony collapse is unavoidable once Escovopsis infections escalate

Physics case for an LHCb Upgrade II - Opportunities in flavour physics, and beyond, in the HL-LHC era

The LHCb Upgrade II will fully exploit the flavour-physics opportunities of the HL-LHC, and study additional physics topics that take advantage of the forward acceptance of the LHCb spectrometer. The LHCb Upgrade I will begin operation in 2020. Consolidation will occur, and modest enhancements of the Upgrade I detector will be installed, in Long Shutdown 3 of the LHC (2025) and these are discussed here. The main Upgrade II detector will be installed in long shutdown 4 of the LHC (2030) and will build on the strengths of the current LHCb experiment and the Upgrade I. It will operate at a luminosity up to 2×1034 cm−2s−1, ten times that of the Upgrade I detector. New detector components will improve the intrinsic performance of the experiment in certain key areas. An Expression Of Interest proposing Upgrade II was submitted in February 2017. The physics case for the Upgrade II is presented here in more depth. CP-violating phases will be measured with precisions unattainable at any other envisaged facility. The experiment will probe b → sl+l−and b → dl+l− transitions in both muon and electron decays in modes not accessible at Upgrade I. Minimal flavour violation will be tested with a precision measurement of the ratio of B(B0 → μ+μ−)/B(Bs → μ+μ−). Probing charm CP violation at the 10−5 level may result in its long sought discovery. Major advances in hadron spectroscopy will be possible, which will be powerful probes of low energy QCD. Upgrade II potentially will have the highest sensitivity of all the LHC experiments on the Higgs to charm-quark couplings. Generically, the new physics mass scale probed, for fixed couplings, will almost double compared with the pre-HL-LHC era; this extended reach for flavour physics is similar to that which would be achieved by the HE-LHC proposal for the energy frontier

LHCb upgrade software and computing : technical design report

This document reports the Research and Development activities that are carried out in the software and computing domains in view of the upgrade of the LHCb experiment. The implementation of a full software trigger implies major changes in the core software framework, in the event data model, and in the reconstruction algorithms. The increase of the data volumes for both real and simulated datasets requires a corresponding scaling of the distributed computing infrastructure. An implementation plan in both domains is presented, together with a risk assessment analysis

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes

Epidemiologic comparisons of soccer-related injuries presenting to emergency departments and reported within high school and collegiate settings

Abstract Background Few studies compare sports injury patterns in different settings. This study described the epidemiology of soccer injuries presenting to emergency departments (EDs) and compared injuries presenting to EDs to injuries presenting to collegiate and high school athletic trainers (ATs). Methods Soccer-related injuries (product code 1267) in the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) that were sustained by individuals at least two years of age in 2004–2013 were included. High School Reporting Information Online (HS RIO) data for high school soccer injuries during the 2005/06–2013/14 academic years were compared to NEISS data for those aged 14–17 years in 2005–2013. National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance Program (NCAA-ISP) data for collegiate soccer injuries during the 2009/10–2013/14 academic years were compared to NEISS data for those aged 18–22 years in 2009–2013. All datasets included weights to calculate national estimates. Injury proportion ratios (IPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) compared nationally estimated injury distributions between the HS RIO/NCAA-ISP and NEISS data subsets. Results During the study period, 63,258 soccer-related injuries were captured by NEISS, which translates to an estimated 2,039,250 injuries seen at US EDs nationwide. Commonly injured body parts included the head/face (19.1%), ankle (17.6%), hand/wrist (15.3%), and knee (12.2%). Common diagnoses included sprains/strains (34.0%), fractures (22.2%), and contusions (17.7%). Compared to their respective age ranges in NEISS, sprains/strains comprised a larger proportion of injuries in HS RIO (48.3% vs. 33.7%; IPR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.42) and NCAA-ISP (51.3% vs. 37.0%; IPR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.31, 1.46). In contrast, fractures comprised a smaller proportion of injuries in HS RIO than in NEISS (7.5% vs. 18.6%; IPR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.47) and NCAA-ISP (2.8% vs. 15.7%; IPR = 0.18; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.22). Conclusions ATs more commonly reported injuries that are easily diagnosed and treated (e.g., sprains/strains); EDs more commonly reported injuries with longer recovery times and rehabilitation (e.g., fractures). Although ED surveillance data can identify the most severe sports-related injuries, high school and college sports surveillance may better describe the breadth of sports-related injuries. Our findings may provide further support for school-based sports medicine professionals, but further research is needed to comprehensively examine the potential economic and health-related benefits

Caprine humoral response to Burkholderia pseudomallei antigens during acute melioidosis from aerosol exposure.

Burkholderia pseudomallei causes melioidosis, a common source of pneumonia and sepsis in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia that results in high mortality rates. A caprine melioidosis model of aerosol infection that leads to a systemic infection has the potential to characterize the humoral immune response. This could help identify immunogenic proteins for new diagnostics and vaccine candidates. Outbred goats may more accurately mimic human infection, in contrast to the inbred mouse models used to date. B. pseudomallei infection was delivered as an intratracheal aerosol. Antigenic protein profiling was generated from the infecting strain MSHR511. Humoral immune responses were analyzed by ELISA and western blot, and the antigenic proteins were identified by mass spectrometry. Throughout the course of the infection the assay results demonstrated a much greater humoral response with IgG antibodies, in both breadth and quantity, compared to IgM antibodies. Pre-infection sera showed multiple immunogenic proteins already reactive for IgG (7-20) and IgM (0-12) in most of the goats despite no previous exposure to B. pseudomallei. After infection, the number of IgG reactive proteins showed a marked increase as the disease progressed. Early stage infection (day 7) showed immune reaction to chaperone proteins (GroEL, EF-Tu, and DnaK). These three proteins were detected in all serum samples after infection, with GroEL immunogenically dominant. Seven common reactive antigens were selected for further analysis using ELISA. The heat shock protein GroEL1 elicited the strongest goat antibody immune response compared to the other six antigens. Most of the six antigens showed the peak IgM reactivity at day 14, whereas the IgG reactivity increased further as the disease progressed. An overall MSHR511 proteomic comparison between the goat model and human sera showed that many immune reactive proteins are common between humans and goats with melioidosis