Part I: A Critical Examination of “The Myth of Nuclear Deterrence”

Several years ago, Ward Wilson presented in this journal a wide-ranging challenge to what every generation of national security scholars and practitioners since the end of World War II has been taught about nuclear weapons. He asserted that nuclear deterrence amounts to far less than its proponents have claimed and provocatively suggested that nuclear deterrence is a myth. Relying upon both empirical and theoretical objections to nuclear deterrence, he concluded that its failures were clear-cut and indisputable, whereas its successes were speculative. Yet in spite of a flourishing trade in scholarly articles, think tank reports, blog posts, and opinion pieces concerning nuclear deterrence, nobody—including nuclear weapons scholars—has ventured more than a limited critique of Wilson's essay. There are, however, serious shortcomings in Wilson's arguments—deficiencies that make his essay an unpersuasive brief against nuclear deterrence. Wilson's thesis could be correct. His arguments, however, are unlikely to persuade any skeptical members of Congress, upon whom future progress in arms control depends, to reconsider the value they attach to nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence

Lessons not learned: Insider threats in pathogen research

1) Even though America's most notorious biosecurity breach -- the 2001 anthrax mailings -- was the work of an insider, expert panels have concluded that there is no need for intrusive monitoring of microbiologists engaged in unclassified research. 2) The debate over publication of studies on the H5N1 virus focused on terrorists and ignored the potential risks posed by insiders. 3) Microbiologists should not be exempt from the kind of scrutiny that scientists who work with nuclear weapons and fissile materials must endure

The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review: the Nexus of Biological Weapons Threats and U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy

The U.S. government released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) Report in 2010. The NPR Report is declaratory policy that warns adversaries and assures allies about how the U.S. would use nuclear weapons to defend the people, territories, and vital interests of the United States. The NPR Report reflects the current administration‘s beliefs that nuclear weapons are not highly relevant to defending against biological weapons (BW) threats, but that unpredictable scientific developments could necessitate a return to greater reliance on nuclear weapons for protection

Climate Change and the Public's Health: The Coming Crisis for the U.S. Gulf Coast

This paper reviews the scientific consensus as to how climate change will affect human health on a global scale and describes the limited, emerging research findings concerning climate change health impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for Americans, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. The paper also summarizes the primary prescriptions and adaptations found in the public health literature for meeting climate change‘s threats to human health, along with several recent findings that America‘s state and local public health agencies recognize the approaching problems but lack the resources to make climate change preparedness, education, needs assessment or adaptation high priorities. It also should be noted that several factors besides climate change are converging to exacerbate the fragility of this region, including coastal erosion and subsidence and the ongoing threat of energy infrastructure failure (such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill catastrophe). This paper provides a comprehensive survey of current U.S. federal government activities—as yet uncoordinated and inadequately funded—to elucidate the public health implications of climate change and to help all levels of government create the tools and institutional structures necessary to adapt to the coming crisis. Finally, it considers pending legislation and executive branch actions to jump start public health adaptation to climate change

Disaster Recovery: Guidance for Donors

This guidance paper goes above and beyond what donors can learn--or already have learned--from a handful of excellent guides developed by the philanthropic community since Hurricane Katrina. Much of this literature on "disaster philanthropy" has been directed at the most effective ways for donors and their agents to deliver assistance during unfolding crises and the immediate aftermath, and how donors and their agents can help provide food, water, clothing, shelter, sanitation, health care and self-governance for masses of displaced and traumatized people. Here, we discuss innovative and under-appreciated ways that donors can help American communities recover and rebuild resiliently from disasters. The goal is to give donors a fresh perspective on supporting local efforts not only to rebuild from disasters already sustained, but also to prepare to recover from potential disasters. In both cases, there are opportunities for donors to directly fund, or pool and leverage funds for a variety of recovery and rebuilding activities, programs and services

Planning for Long‐Term Recovery Before Disaster Strikes: Case Studies of 4 US Cities: A Final Project Report

Among the four phases along the hazard continuum -- preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation -- the sub‐field of long‐term recovery has long been an outlier, an "orphan" when it comes to concerted policy attention and pre‐disaster planning. It's not that community residents or municipal and state government officials are unaware of the potential long‐term residual consequences of natural disasters. Since the attacks of September 11, 2001 and the subsequent creation of the Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. government has spent billions of dollars to upgrade and enhance the country's ability to detect and respond to major catastrophic events, whether man‐made or natural in origin. The country experienced catastrophic wildfires in 2003, 2007‐2008, and 2011, a regional electrical blackout affecting 9 states and part of Canada in 2003, major Midwest flooding in 2008 and again this year, Category 3 or greater hurricanes in 2004, 2005, and 2008, and significant tornado clusters in 2011 that claimed 529 lives and caused over $17 billion in damages. These hazards have struck virtually every region of the country, and the consequences are readily evident to emergency managers and local city and county. Although the ratio of uncovered to covered losses has declined over this three‐decade timeframe, from approximately 8:1 to 4:1, absolute dollar losses have escalated tremendously. This may represent gains in mitigation efforts to insure against losses in high‐risk areas, but the size and growth of uncovered losses suggest a growing recovery challenge. This difference between covered and uncovered losses reflects the absolute minimum investment required for affected areas to return to pre‐event conditions, much less build back to a better or higher standard. Furthermore, what this trend line cannot capture are those disaster consequences not so easily monetized -- diminished physical and mental health among an affected citizenry, loss of a sense of community and attachment to place, or large scale social disruptions or population displacements. Given the magnitude of the social investment needed to pursue long‐term recovery after a disaster, and the attention that other phases in the hazard continuum have experienced, why is recovery still a policy orphan, and what are the local implications for pre‐disaster planning for long‐term recovery

Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks

The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region’s coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region’s unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region’s ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades

Measuring Individual Disaster Recovery: A Socioecological Framework

Background: Disaster recovery is a complex phenomenon. Too often, recovery is measured in singular fashion, such as quantifying rebuilt infrastructure or lifelines, without taking in to account the affected population's individual and community recovery. A comprehensive framework is needed that encompasses a much broader and far-reaching construct with multiple underlying dimensions and numerous causal pathways; without the consideration of a comprehensive framework that investigates relationships between these factors, an accurate measurement of recovery may not be valid. This study proposes a model that encapsulates these ideas into a single framework, the Socio-Ecological Model of Recovery. Methods: Using confirmatory factor analysis, an operational measure of recovery was developed and validated using the five measures of housing stability, economic stability, physical health, mental health, and social role adaptation. The data were drawn from a sample of displaced households following Hurricane Katrina. Measures of psychological strength, risk, disaster exposure, neighborhood contextual effects, and formal and informal help were modeled to examine their direct and indirect effects on recovery using a structural equation model. Findings: All five elements of the recovery measure were positively correlated with a latent measure of recovery, although mental health and social role adaptation displayed the strongest associations. An individual's psychological strength had the greatest association with positive recovery, followed by having a household income greater than $20 000 and having informal social support. Those factors most strongly associated with an absence of recovery included the time displaced since the hurricane, being disabled, and living in a community with substantial social disorder. Discussion: The socio-ecological framework provides a robust means for measuring recovery, and for testing those factors associated with the presence or absence of recovery

Rural and suburban population surge following detonation of an improvised nuclear device: A new model to estimate impact

Background: The objective of the study was to model urban evacuation into surrounding communities after the detonation of an improvised nuclear device (IND) to assist rural and suburban planners in understanding and effectively planning to address the effects of population surges. Methods: Researchers developed parameters for how far evacuees would travel to escape disasters and factors that would influence choice of destination from studies of historical evacuations, surveys of citizens' evacuation intentions in hypothetical disasters, and semistructured interviews with key informants and emergency preparedness experts. Those parameters became the inputs to a "push-pull" model of how many people would flee in the 4 scenarios and where they would go. Results: The expanded model predicted significant population movements from the New York City borough of Manhattan and counties within 20 km of Manhattan to counties within a 150-mi radius of the assumed IND detonation. It also predicted that even in some communities located far from Manhattan, arriving evacuees would increase the population needing services by 50% to 150%. Conclusions: The results suggest that suburban and rural communities could be overwhelmed by evacuees from their center city following an IND detonation. They also highlight the urgency of educating and communicating with the public about radiation hazards to mitigate panic and hysteria, anticipating the ways in which a mass exodus may disrupt or even cripple rescue and response efforts, and devising creative ways to exercise and drill for an event about which there is great denial and fatalism

At the Crossroads of Long-Term Recovery: Joplin, Missouri Six Months after the May 22, 2011 Tornado

In December 2011, researchers from Columbia University’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) interviewed key officials and community leaders in Joplin, Missouri in order to document the major themes of the recovery effort approximately six months after the May 22 tornado. Researchers interviewed individuals in Joplin, Missouri to document recovery efforts six months after the tornado that displaced one third of the city’s population. They observed a favorable foundation for recovery, including limited physical damage to critical infrastructure or the city government’s fiscal base, minimal political conflict over the direction and control of recovery, a history of prior collaborative efforts across diverse sectors, and a highly involved and visible governor. The study documents several quick critical decisions that set a positive recovery trajectory and a FEMA-supported long-term recovery planning process. It notes that six months after the tornado, Joplin’s leadership faced hard decisions about how to apply federal and state redevelopment support and private philanthropic donations, deal with long-term community mental health issues, maintain a high level of citizen involvement, and sustain the cooperative atmosphere that had defined the first six months of recovery