Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics

Noise-driven bias in the non-local voter model

Is it more effective to have a strong influence over a small domain, or a weaker influence over a larger one? Here, we introduce and analyse an off-lattice generalisation of the voter model, in which the range and strength of agents' influence are control parameters. We consider both low and high density regimes and, using distinct mathematical approaches, derive analytical predictions for the evolution of agent densities. We find that, even when the agents are equally persuasive on average, those whose influence is wider but weaker have an overall noise-driven advantage allowing them to reliably dominate the entire population. We discuss the implications of our results and the potential of our model (or adaptations thereof) to improve the understanding of political campaign strategies and the evolution of disease.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Multidimensional Single Cell Based STAT Phosphorylation Profiling Identifies a Novel Biosignature for Evaluation of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Activity

INTRODUCTION: Dysregulated cytokine action on immune cells plays an important role in the initiation and progress of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), a complex autoimmune disease. Comprehensively quantifying basal STATs phosphorylation and their signaling response to cytokines should help us to better understand the etiology of SLE. METHODS: Phospho-specific flow cytometry was used to measure the basal STAT signaling activation in three immune cell types of peripheral-blood mononuclear cells from 20 lupus patients, 9 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients and 13 healthy donors (HDs). A panel of 27 cytokines, including inflammatory cytokines, was measured with Bio-Plex™ Human Cytokine Assays. Serum Prolactin levels were measured with an immunoradiometric assay. STAT signaling responses to inflammatory cytokines (interferon α [IFNα], IFNγ, interleukin 2 [IL2], IL6, and IL10) were also monitored. RESULTS: We observed the basal activation of STAT3 in SLE T cells and monocytes, and the basal activation of STAT5 in SLE T cells and B cells. The SLE samples clustered into two main groups, which were associated with the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000, their erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and their hydroxychloroquine use. The phosphorylation of STAT5 in B cells was associated with cytokines IL2, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), and IFNγ, whereas serum prolactin affected STAT5 activation in T cells. The responses of STAT1, STAT3, and STAT5 to IFNα were greatly reduced in SLE T cells, B cells, and monocytes, except for the STAT1 response to IFNα in monocytes. The response of STAT3 to IL6 was reduced in SLE T cells. CONCLUSIONS: The basal activation of STATs signaling and reduced response to cytokines may be helpful us to identify the activity and severity of SLE

Increased de novo copy number variants in the offspring of older males

The offspring of older fathers have an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders, such as schizophrenia and autism. In light of the evidence implicating copy number variants (CNVs) with schizophrenia and autism, we used a mouse model to explore the hypothesis that the offspring of older males have an increased risk of de novo CNVs. C57BL/6J sires that were 3- and 12–16-months old were mated with 3-month-old dams to create control offspring and offspring of old sires, respectively. Applying genome-wide microarray screening technology, 7 distinct CNVs were identified in a set of 12 offspring and their parents. Competitive quantitative PCR confirmed these CNVs in the original set and also established their frequency in an independent set of 77 offspring and their parents. On the basis of the combined samples, six de novo CNVs were detected in the offspring of older sires, whereas none were detected in the control group. Two of the CNVs were associated with behavioral and/or neuroanatomical phenotypic features. One of the de novo CNVs involved Auts2 (autism susceptibility candidate 2), and other CNVs included genes linked to schizophrenia, autism and brain development. This is the first experimental demonstration that the offspring of older males have an increased risk of de novo CNVs. Our results support the hypothesis that the offspring of older fathers have an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as schizophrenia and autism by generation of de novo CNVs in the male germline

A Genome-Wide Linkage Scan for Distinct Subsets of Schizophrenia Characterized by Age at Onset and Neurocognitive Deficits

As schizophrenia is genetically and phenotypically heterogeneous, targeting genetically informative phenotypes may help identify greater linkage signals. The aim of the study is to evaluate the genetic linkage evidence for schizophrenia in subsets of families with earlier age at onset or greater neurocognitive deficits.Patients with schizophrenia (n  =  1,207) and their first-degree relatives (n  =  1,035) from 557 families with schizophrenia were recruited from six data collection field research centers throughout Taiwan. Subjects completed a face-to-face semi-structured interview, the Continuous Performance Test (CPT), the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, and were genotyped with 386 microsatellite markers across the genome.A maximum nonparametric logarithm of odds (LOD) score of 4.17 at 2q22.1 was found in 295 families ranked by increasing age at onset, which had significant increases in the maximum LOD score compared with those obtained in initial linkage analyses using all available families. Based on this subset, a further subsetting by false alarm rate on the undegraded and degraded CPT obtained further increase in the nested subset-based LOD on 2q22.1, with a score of 7.36 in 228 families and 7.71 in 243 families, respectively.We found possible evidence of linkage on chromosome 2q22.1 in families of schizophrenia patients with more CPT false alarm rates nested within the families with younger age at onset. These results highlight the importance of incorporating genetically informative phenotypes in unraveling the complex genetics of schizophrenia

Genome-wide association study identifies eight risk loci and implicates metabo-psychiatric origins for anorexia nervosa

Characterized primarily by a low body-mass index, anorexia nervosa is a complex and serious illness1, affecting 0.9-4% of women and 0.3% of men2-4, with twin-based heritability estimates of 50-60%5. Mortality rates are higher than those in other psychiatric disorders6, and outcomes are unacceptably poor7. Here we combine data from the Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative (ANGI)8,9 and the Eating Disorders Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC-ED) and conduct a genome-wide association study of 16,992 cases of anorexia nervosa and 55,525 controls, identifying eight significant loci. The genetic architecture of anorexia nervosa mirrors its clinical presentation, showing significant genetic correlations with psychiatric disorders, physical activity, and metabolic (including glycemic), lipid and anthropometric traits, independent of the effects of common variants associated with body-mass index. These results further encourage a reconceptualization of anorexia nervosa as a metabo-psychiatric disorder. Elucidating the metabolic component is a critical direction for future research, and paying attention to both psychiatric and metabolic components may be key to improving outcomes

Genetic, Phenotypic, and Interferon Biomarker Status in ADAR1-Related Neurological Disease

International audienceWe investigated the genetic, phenotypic, and interferon status of 46 patients from 37 families with neurological disease due to mutations in ADAR1. The clinicoradiological phenotype encompassed a spectrum of Aicardi–Goutières syndrome, isolated bilateral striatal necrosis, spastic paraparesis with normal neuroimaging, a progressive spastic dystonic motor disorder, and adult-onset psychological difficulties with intracranial calcification. Homozygous missense mutations were recorded in five families. We observed a p.Pro193Ala variant in the heterozygous state in 22 of 23 families with compound heterozygous mutations. We also ascertained 11 cases from nine families with a p.Gly1007Arg dominant-negative mutation, which occurred de novo in four patients, and was inherited in three families in association with marked phenotypic variability. In 50 of 52 samples from 34 patients, we identified a marked upregulation of type I interferon-stimulated gene transcripts in peripheral blood, with a median interferon score of 16.99 (interquartile range [IQR]: 10.64–25.71) compared with controls (median: 0.93, IQR: 0.57–1.30). Thus, mutations in ADAR1 are associated with a variety of clinically distinct neurological phenotypes presenting from early infancy to adulthood, inherited either as an autosomal recessive or dominant trait. Testing for an interferon signature in blood represents a useful biomarker in this context

Perspective on satellite-based land data assimilation to estimate water cycle components in an era of advanced data availability and model sophistication

The beginning of the 21st century is marked by a rapid growth of land surface satellite data and model sophistication. This offers new opportunities to estimate multiple components of the water cycle via satellite-based land data assimilation (DA) across multiple scales. By resolving more processes in land surface models and by coupling the land, the atmosphere, and other Earth system compartments, the observed information can be propagated to constrain additional unobserved variables. Furthermore, access to more satellite observations enables the direct constraint of more and more components of the water cycle that are of interest to end users. However, the finer level of detail in models and data is also often accompanied by an increase in dimensions, with more state variables, parameters, or boundary conditions to estimate, and more observations to assimilate. This requires advanced DA methods and efficient solutions. One solution is to target specific observations for assimilation based on a sensitivity study or coupling strength analysis, because not all observations are equally effective in improving subsequent forecasts of hydrological variables, weather, agricultural production, or hazards through DA. This paper offers a perspective on current and future land DA development, and suggestions to optimally exploit advances in observing and modeling systems