Managing native and non-native sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties.

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range