Frequentist Hypothesis Testing with Background Uncertainty

We consider the standard Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test of a signal-plus-background hypothesis and background-only hypothesis in the presence of uncertainty on the background-only prediction. Surprisingly, this problem has not been addressed in the recent conferences on statistical techniques in high-energy physics -- although the its confidence-interval equivalent has been. We discuss the issues of power, similar tests, coverage, and ordering rules. The method presented is compared to the Cousins-Highland technique, the ratio of Poisson means, and ``profile'' method.Comment: Talk from PhyStat2003, Stanford, Ca, USA, September 2003, 4 pages, LaTeX, 2 eps figures. PSN WEMT00

Ion Temperatures in the Low Solar Corona: Polar Coronal Holes at Solar Minimum

In the present work we use a deep-exposure spectrum taken by the SUMER spectrometer in a polar coronal hole in 1996 to measure the ion temperatures of a large number of ions at many different heights above the limb between 0.03 and 0.17 solar radii. We find that the measured ion temperatures are almost always larger than the electron temperatures and exhibit a non-monotonic dependence on the charge-to-mass ratio. We use these measurements to provide empirical constraints to a theoretical model of ion heating and acceleration based on gradually replenished ion-cyclotron waves. We compare the wave power required to heat the ions to the observed levels to a prediction based on a model of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. We find that the empirical heating model and the turbulent cascade model agree with one another, and explain the measured ion temperatures, for charge-to-mass ratios smaller than about 0.25. However, ions with charge-to-mass ratios exceeding 0.25 disagree with the model; the wave power they require to be heated to the measured ion temperatures shows an increase with charge-to-mass ratio (i.e., with increasing frequency) that cannot be explained by a traditional cascade model. We discuss possible additional processes that might be responsible for the inferred surplus of wave power.Comment: 11 pages (emulateapj style), 10 figures, ApJ, in press (v. 691, January 20, 2009

Multivariate Analysis from a Statistical Point of View

Multivariate Analysis is an increasingly common tool in experimental high energy physics; however, many of the common approaches were borrowed from other fields. We clarify what the goal of a multivariate algorithm should be for the search for a new particle and compare different approaches. We also translate the Neyman-Pearson theory into the language of statistical learning theory.Comment: Talk from PhyStat2003, Stanford, Ca, USA, September 2003, 4 pages, LaTeX, 1 eps figures. PSN WEJT00

Potential for Higgs Physics at the LHC and Super-LHC

The expected sensitivity of the LHC experiments to the discovery of the Higgs boson and the measurement of its properties is presented in the context of both the standard model and the its minimal supersymmetric extension. Prospects for a luminosity-upgraded ``Super-LHC'' are also presented.Comment: Invited talk at 2005 International Linear Collider Physics and Detector Workshop and Second ILC Accelerator Workshop, Snowmass, CO(Snowmass05) 3 pages, 0 figures. PSN ALCPG060

A turbulence-driven model for heating and acceleration of the fast wind in coronal holes

A model is presented for generation of fast solar wind in coronal holes, relying on heating that is dominated by turbulent dissipation of MHD fluctuations transported upwards in the solar atmosphere. Scale-separated transport equations include large-scale fields, transverse Alfvenic fluctuations, and a small compressive dissipation due to parallel shears near the transition region. The model accounts for proton temperature, density, wind speed, and fluctuation amplitude as observed in remote sensing and in situ satellite data.Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ

Kinetic instability of drift-Alfven waves in solar corona and stochastic heating

The solar atmosphere is structured and inhomogeneous both horizontally and vertically. The omnipresence of coronal magnetic loops implies gradients of the equilibrium plasma quantities like the density, magnetic field and temperature. These gradients are responsible for the excitation of drift waves that grow both within the two-component fluid description (in the presence of collisions and without it) and within the two-component kinetic descriptions (due to purely kinetic effects). In the present work the effects of the density gradient in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field vector are investigated within the kinetic theory, in both electrostatic and electromagnetic regimes. The electromagnetic regime implies the coupling of the gradient-driven drift wave with the Alfven wave. The growth rates for the two cases are calculated and compared. It is found that, in general, the electrostatic regime is characterized by stronger growth rates, as compared with the electromagnetic perturbations. Also discussed is the stochastic heating associated with the drift wave. The released amount of energy density due to this heating should be more dependent on the magnitude of the background magnetic field than on the coupling of the drift and Alfven waves. The stochastic heating is expected to be much higher in regions with a stronger magnetic field. On the whole, the energy release rate caused by the stochastic heating can be several orders of magnitude above the value presently accepted as necessary for a sustainable coronal heating.Comment: To appear in ApJ (2010

New views of the solar wind with the Lambert W function

This paper presents closed-form analytic solutions to two illustrative problems in solar physics that have been considered not solvable in this way previously. Both the outflow speed and the mass loss rate of the solar wind of plasma particles ejected by the Sun are derived analytically for certain illustrative approximations. The calculated radial dependence of the flow speed applies to both Parker's isothermal solar wind equation and Bondi's equation of spherical accretion. These problems involve the solution of transcendental equations containing products of variables and their logarithms. Such equations appear in many fields of physics and are solvable by use of the Lambert W function, which is briefly described. This paper is an example of how new functions can be applied to existing problems.Comment: 16 pages (revtex4), 3 figures, American J. Phys., in press (2004

Statistics for the LHC: Progress, Challenges, and Future

The Large Hadron Collider offers tremendous potential for the discovery of new physics and poses many challenges to the statistical techniques used within High Energy Physics. I will review some of the signi cant progress that has been made since the PhyStat 2005 conference in Oxford and highlight some of the most important outstanding issues. I will also present some ideas for future developments within the eld and advocate a progressive form of publication