232 research outputs found
Analyzing Income Tax Evasion Using Amnesty Data with Self-Selection Correction: The Case of the Michigan Tax Amnesty Program
Inflation and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis
This paper contains an analysis of the effect of inflation on aggregate tax evasion in the United States over the period 1947-81. It is found that tax evasion in both absolute and relative terms is positively related to the inflation rate. Further, the results indicate that aggregate evasion has risen in both absolute and relative terms with increases in the marginal tax rate, but has fallen with increases in the detection probability, the penalty rate, and the wage share of income. Finally, evasion has risen in absolute terms but has fallen in relative terms when real true income has risen
On the Treatment of Income Tax Rates in Empirical Analysis of Tax Evasion
In this paper, it is argued that average tax rates exert an influence on income tax evasion separate from, and opposite to that of marginal tax rates. Failure to account for this effect in empirical evasion models biases the parameter estimate of the marginal rate in a predictable manner. Evidence from an aggregate empirical model of evasion in the US indicates that the marginal tax rate is positively related to evasion, whereas the average tax rate is negatively related. Further, exclusion of the average rate from the model does in fact bias the parameter estimate of the marginal tax rate
Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from California Amnesty Data
The effect of marginal tax rates on income tax evasion is examined using data from the California Tax Amnesty Program, which provided amnesty for people who had not filed returns, had filed inaccurate returns, or were delinquent in paying their tax liabilities. People under criminal investigation were not eligible. After correcting for the selectivity bias, it was found that tax evaders respond to higher marginal tax rates by increasing their evasion activity. The results also confirm the theoretical prediction that people with higher levels of income tend to evade more. The absolute and relative sizes of income and tax rate changes depend on the scope of the evasion measure used. In particular, the absolute effects of income and tax rate changes are larger for the income-based measures of evasion, while the relative effects are larger for the tax-based measure of evasion. Finally, the results suggest that evasion generally is inelastic with respect to changes in both true income and marginal tax rates but that tax rate inelasticities are consistently larger than income elasticities
An Empirical Analysis of Factors That Distinguish Those Who Evade on Their Tax Return from Those Who Choose not to File a Return
This paper presents an empirical model distinguishing evaders who cheat by filing fraudulent income tax returns from those who do not file. Using a maximum-likelihood procedure that corrects for sample selection bias, and data from Michigan\u27s amnesty program, we estimate a linear probability model which relates the probability of filing to various economic and demographic characteristics. The results indicate that higher true income and automatic withholding raise the probability of filing, while males and single individuals are less likely to file. The evidence regarding a grouping of occupations often thought to be association with evasion is inconclusive
Income Tax Evasion: Some Aggregate Empirical Evidence
It is well-known that every year a substantial amount of income evades income taxation. This is obviously a significant policy problem. To solve this problem, the tax authorities must have information about the factors that taxpayers consider when deciding how much income to report on their tax returns. The need for such information has prompted a number of theoretical and empirical studies of the evasion problem.
In this paper some aggregate empirical evidence on income tax evasion in the U.S. is provided. This is accomplished by specifying an aggregate tax evasion function which is estimated over the period 1947-78. The results provide (1) empirical evidence which supports some of the predictions of the microtheory, (2) insights where the theoretical results are indeterminant, and (3) an indication of the sensitivity of a measure of aggregate evasion to changes in the aggregate variables which correspond to the microtheoretical determinants of evasion.
The remainder of this paper is organized in the following way. Section I contains background information on the results reported in some of the previous literature. In Section II, an empirical model is specified and estimated, and the results are presented. This is followed in Section III by brief discussion of some of the possible implications of these results, along with suggestions for further research
Wage Share, Market Power and Unionism: Some Contrary U.S. Evidence
In a recent article, Cowling and Molho (1982) presented empirical evidence on the relationships among the wage share, market power, and unionism in the U.K. Using multiple regression analysis on cross-sectional 1968 data for 118 industries,1 they found strong, negative relationships between the share of production worker wages in value added and two measures of monopoly power in the product market, namely, concentration and advertising intensity. However, utilizing several alternative measures of union power, they found only limited support for the hypothesis that union power is positively associated with this wage share. Cowling and Molho (hereafter, GM) also examined the relationships between the share of non-production worker salaries in value added and these same market power variables. They found a significant, positive relationship between the salary share and concentration and no relationship between the salary share and advertising intensity. Their one puzzling result was that union power appeared to be more closely related to the salary share of nonproduction workers than it was to the wage share of production workers. The C-M results with respect to the concentration-wage share relationship are inconsistent with the only previously published study on the topic (Maroney and Allen, 1969) but consistent with the unpublished work of Barbee (1974). Since little empirical work has been done on this question, and since no other study has estimated the effect of either advertising or union power on the wage and salary shares, it is clear that more research on these questions is in order
Industry Growth, Labor Compensation, and Loabor\u27s Share of Value Added in US Manufacturing, 1967-1979
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