Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate

This paper provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate provides an "optimal" forecast of the future spot ex-change rate, for five currencies relative to the dollar. This hypothesis provides a convenient norm for examining the erratic behavior of exchange rates; this erratic behavior represents an efficient market that is quickly incorporating new information into the current exchange rate. This hypothesis is analyzed using two distinct, but related, approaches. The first approach is based on a regression of spot rates on lagged forward rates. When using weekly data and a one month forward exchange rate, ordinary least squares regression analysis of market efficiency is incorrect. Econometric methods are proposed which allow for consistent (though not fully efficient) estimation of the parameters and their standard errors. This paper also presents a new approach for testing exchange market efficiency. This approach is based on a general time series process generating the spot and forward exchange rate. The hypothesis of efficiency implies a set of cross-equation restrictions imposed on the parameters of the time series model. This paper derives these restrictions, proposes a maximum likelihood method of estimating the constrained likelihood function, estimates the model and tests the validity of the restrictions with a likelihood ration statistic.

The Term Structure of the Forward Premium

Most studies of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market focus on a single maturity -- usually a one month exchange rate. However, one observes that forward contracts of many maturities are simultaneously traded in the foreign exchange market. The hypothesis that the foreign. exchange market uses all available information has implications for the joint behavior of forward exchange rates of various maturities. This paper theoretically and empirically examines these implications. The paper proposes an equilibrium theory of the term structure of the forward premium. By combining the theory of the term structure of (domestic and foreign)interest rates with the hypothesis of interest rate parity, a simple expression relating the six month forward premium to a geometric average of expected future one month forward premiums can be developed. By assuming that the one and six month forward premiums can be expressed as a bivariate stochastic process, one can derive an expression for the expected one month forward premium. The theory will then impose highly non-linear cross equation restrictions on the parameters of the model. Two methods of testing the validity of the restrictions are presented. The results indicate that the data are consistent with the theory for Germany and inconsistent with the theory for Canada.

PCE and CPI inflation differentials: converting inflation forecasts

The Federal Reserve recently announced it will begin to release quarterly inflation forecasts based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index. As Chairman Bernanke said, the PCE index is generally thought to be ?the single most comprehensive and theoretically compelling measure of consumer prices.? At the same time, Bernanke said that ?no single measure of inflation is perfect, and the Committee will continue to monitor a range of measures when forming its view about inflation prospects,? including the Consumer Price Index. ; The public and private sectors alike will want to be able to convert CPI inflation forecasts released by various organizations to PCE inflation forecasts, and vice versa. But the inflation differentials for the two measures can change significantly over time. To convert between CPI and PCE inflation projections, economists must construct statistical models to explain and predict the inflation differentials (overall and core), recognizing that the differentials may change over time. ; Hakkio estimates a set of models that analysts can use to make such conversions.Inflation (Finance)

Economic policy for the information economy : a summary of the Bank's 2001 Economic Symposium

The economies of the industrialized countries are being reshaped by the rapid development and diffusion of advanced information and communications technologies. Access to information is unprecedented, and the ability to process and exchange information has helped businesses increase efficiency and households raise their standards of living. There has been considerable agreement as to the broad features of the emerging information economy. But there has been less consensus on the likely magnitude and significance of the economic effects or on the important policy issues raised by these developments.> The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sponsored a symposium, “Economic Policy for the Information Economy,” at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 30 – September 1, 2001. The symposium brought together a distinguished group of central bankers, academics, and financial market experts to examine how the information economy will alter the structure of economic activity. The symposium also served as a forum for addressing key policy challenges.> Mr. Hakkio summarizes the principal issues raised at the symposium. Participants agreed that the information economy has changed the microeconomic and macroeconomic structure of the U.S. and foreign economies. The general consensus at the symposium was that long-run growth was probably 3 to 3 ½ percent, compared to 2 ¼ to 2 ½ percent in the 1980s and early 1990s.Information technology

Global inflation dynamics

This paper examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The paper calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. The paper then demonstrates that the first common factor is sometimes helpful in forecasting national inflation rates. It also shows that the second common factor and the first common factor for cyclical inflation is sometimes helpful in forecasting national CPI inflation rates. Finally, the paper suggests that the commonality of industrial inflation rates reflects the commonality of the determinants of inflation.

The effects of budget deficit reduction on the exchange rate

Public sector debt in the industrialized world has increased dramatically over the last 15 years. At the June 1996 Economic Summit in Lyon, France, leaders of the seven major industrialized democracies discussed the problems posed by large budget deficits and debt, as well as the potential benefits of regaining fiscal balance. The G-7 leaders agreed that while economic fundamentals in their countries are sound, investment growth, income growth, and job creation all depend on enacting credible fiscal consolidation programs and successful anti-inflationary policies.> While there is general agreement that cutting budget deficits and debt will lower interest rates, debate persists over the effects on a country's exchange rate. Unfortunately, the evidence on the relationship between budget deficits and the exchange rate does not readily resolve the debate. In the early 1980s, the rising U.S. budget deficit was associated with dollar appreciation, while in the 1990s rising deficits in Finland, Italy, and Sweden were associated with currency depreciation.> Hakkio analyzes the effects of budget deficit reduction on a country's exchange rate. First, he shows the evidence on the relationship between budget deficits and exchange rates is not clear-cut and explains why the theory that underlies the relationship is ambiguous. To sort out the ambiguity, he provides new empirical results indicating that deficit reduction through tax increases tends to weaken the exchange rate of countries with good records on inflation and debt, while deficit reduction through spending cuts tends to strengthen the exchange rate of countries with poor records on inflation and debt.Budget deficits ; Foreign exchange rates

Should we throw sand in the gears of financial markets?

The volatility of financial markets in recent years has led to increased concern. As trading of financial assets on organized exchanges and over-the-counter markets has grown, events such as the 1987 stock market crash and the 1992 Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in Europe have raised fundamental questions about the role these markets play in the economy. In particular, there is concern that much of the increased trading of financial assets is of a short-term, speculative nature that adds little value to the intermediation process and in the extreme case may distort the efficient functioning of financial markets.> This view has led some economists to advocate a securities transaction tax. Such a tax, it is argued, when applied to a broad range of financial transactions, would raise the cost of short-term speculative trading, reduce financial market volatility, and improve the efficiency of financial markets. This type of tax might also raise substantial revenue that could help reduce the federal budget deficit. The revenue potential has not gone unnoticed in Washington, where recent budget proposals by both the Bush and Clinton administrations have included an STT.> Hakkio explores the pros and cons of a securities transaction tax. He concludes that the proponents have overstated the likely benefits of a securities transaction tax and underestimated the potential costs.Financial markets ; Taxation ; Securities

The U.S. current account: the other deficit

Considerable attention has been focused recently on the size and persistence of the U.S. budget deficit. Somewhat lost in the headlines is growing concern among many economists and policymakers over "the other deficit"--the U.S. current account deficit. Before 1982, U.S. current account deficits were small and temporary, as imports of goods and services rarely exceeded exports for an extended period. Since 1982, however, this deficit has increased significantly and many analysts expect the deficit to remain high well into the next century.> Large current account deficits pose both a short-term risk and a long-term problem for the United States. At present, the United States depends on a commensurately large flow of foreign capital into U.S. markets to finance the current account deficit. If market sentiment were to shift against the United States, higher interest rates and a lower exchange value of the dollar might be necessary to continue to attract foreign capital. In the long term, because financing a chronic deficit requires the United States to borrow from abroad, future interest payments on this debt could lower the standard of living in the United States.> Hakkio examines the current account deficit and its implications. First, he discusses why the current account deficit became large and persistent in the early 1980s. Second, he analyzes the short-term risk that current account deficits pose for the U.S. economy. Finally, he analyzes the long-term problem associated with a chronic current account deficit.Deficit financing

What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity

Despite the apparent risk that financial stress poses to the real economy, the relationship between financial stress and economic activity is complex and not well understood. The experience of the United States and other countries has shown that businesses and households often pull back on new investments and purchases in response to the tighter credit conditions and greater uncertainty caused by financial stress. Yet important gaps remain in our understanding of this critical relationship. ; One potential complication is that the relationship may change when financial stress is elevated and the economy is in a recession. Over the last 20 years, the U.S. economy has shown a tendency to switch between two very distinct states—a normal state in which economic activity is high and financial stress is low, and a distressed state in which economic activity is low and financial stress is high. Does the impact of financial stress on economic activity depend on which of these two states currently prevails? And how do changes in financial stress and economic activity affect the likelihood of switching from one state to the other? ; Davig and Hakkio examine these questions. A key finding is that, over the last two decades, increases in financial stress have had a much stronger effect on the real economy when the economy is in a distressed state. In addition, rising financial stress plays a role in eventually tipping a strong economy into a distressed state. As a result, policymakers should monitor financial conditions closely, both in good as well as bad times.

The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS

Exchange rates of currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS are characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by periods of extreme volatility. The periods of volatility appear at times of realignments of the central parities and at times when the exchange rate is within the ERM bands. We begin by considering a procedure for finding outliers based on measuring distance as a quadratic form. The evidence suggests that the exchange rates of the EMS can be described by a mixture of two distributions. We therefore model the exchange rate as switching between two distributions--one that holds in stable times and the other that holds in volatile times. In particular, we use Hamilton's Markov-switching model. In addition, we extend Hamilton's model by allowing the probability of switching from one state to another to depend on the position of the exchange rate within its EMS band. This model has the interesting implication that near the edge of the band, large movements--either realignments or large jumps to the center of the band--are more likely if the move to the edge of the band has been precipitous.