Using Numerical Dynamic Programming to Compare Passive and Active Learning in the Adaptive Management of Nutrients in Shallow Lakes

This paper illustrates the use of dual/adaptive control methods to compare passive and active adaptive management decisions in the context of an ecosystem with a threshold effect. Using discrete-time dynamic programming techniques, we model optimal phosphorus loadings under both uncertainty about natural loadings and uncertainty regarding the critical level of phosphorus concentrations beyond which nutrient recycling begins. Active management is modeled by including the anticipated value of information (or learning) in the structure of the problem, and thus the agent can perturb the system (experiment), update beliefs, and learn about the uncertain parameter. Using this formulation, we define and value optimal experimentation both ex ante and ex post. Our simulation results show that experimentation is optimal over a large range of phosphorus concentration and belief space, though ex ante benefits are small. Furthermore, realized benefits may critically depend on the true underlying parameters of the problem.adaptive control, adaptive management, dynamic programming, value of experimentation, value of information, nonpoint source pollution, learning, decisions under uncertainty, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Natural Enemies of Alfalfa Weevil, \u3ci\u3eHypera Postica\u3c/i\u3e (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in Minnesota

Alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica, is present throughout Minnesota. How- ever, economically damaging populations seldom occur, due to a combination of natural enemies and adverse climatic conditions. Five natural enemies of alfalfa weevil were found in Minnesota. Microctonus aethiopoides (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a parasitoid of adults, was recovered from 43 of 65 counties surveyed during 1984 and 1985. Tetrastichus incertus (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) and Bathyplectes curculionis (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), para­sitoids of larvae, were each recovered from 13 of 15 counties surveyed during 1991-1993. Bathyplectes anurus, another parasitoid of larvae, was recovered from one county In 1991, four counties in 1992, and six counties in 1993. Zoophthora phytonomi (Entomophthora: Entomophthoraceae), a pathogen of larvae, was recovered from 14 of 15 counties surveyed in 1991-1993. Winters with low minimum temperatures and little snow cover were detrimental to the weevil. Usually, southeastern Minnesota has milder winters and higher alfalfa weevil populations than other areas of the State. However, even here, because of natural enemies, weevil populations seldom reach economically damaging levels

The Stellar Populations of Low-redshift Clusters

We present some preliminary results from an on-going study of the evolution of stellar populations in rich clusters of galaxies. This sample contains core line-strength measurements from 183 galaxies with b_J <= 19.5 from four clusters with ~0.04. Using predictions from stellar population models to compare with our measured line strengths we can derive relative luminosity-weighted mean ages and metallicities for the stellar populations in each of our clusters. We also investigate the Mgb'-sigma and Hbeta_G'-sigma scaling relations. We find that, consistent with previous results, Mgb' is correlated with sigma, the likely explanation being that larger galaxies are better at retaining their heavier elements due to their larger potentials. Hbeta', on the other hand, we find to be anti-correlated with sigma. This result implies that the stellar populations in larger galaxies are older than in smaller galaxies.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of IAU Colloquium 195: "Outskirts of Galaxy Clusters: intense life in the suburbs", Torino Italy, March 12-16 200

1999-00 Illinois Trapper Survey Report

Federal Aid Project Number W-112-R-9, Job Number 101.2, Wildlife Restoration FundReport issued on: January 5, 200

Diverse hypolithic refuge communities in the McMurdo Dry Valleys

Hyper-arid deserts present extreme challenges to life. The environmental buffering provided by quartz and other translucent rocks allows hypolithic microbial communities to develop on sub-soil surfaces of such rocks. These refuge communities have been reported, for many locations worldwide, to be predominantly cyanobacterial in nature. Here we report the discovery in Antarctica’s hyper-arid McMurdo Dry Valleys of three clearly distinguishable types of hypolithic community. Based on gross colonization morphology and identification of dominant taxa, we have classified hypolithic communities as Type I (cyanobacterial dominated), Type II (fungal dominated) and Type III (moss dominated). This discovery supports a growing awareness of the high biocomplexity in Antarctic deserts, emphasizes the possible importance of cryptic microbial communities in nutrient cycling and provides evidence for possible successional community processes within a cold arid landscape

Can we evaluate population screening strategies in UK general practice? A pilot randomised controlled trial comparing postal and opportunistic screening for genital chlamydial infection

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess whether opportunistic and postal screening strategies for Chlamydia trachomatis can be compared with usual care in a randomised trial in general practice DESIGN: Feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Three West of Scotland general medical practices: one rural, one urban/deprived and one urban/affluent. PARTICIPANTS: 600 women aged 16-30 years, 200 from each of three participating practices selected at random from a sample of West of Scotland practices that had expressed interest in the study. The women could opt out of the study. Those who did not were randomly assigned to one of three groups: postal screening, opportunistic screening or usual care. MAIN RESULTS: 38% (85/221) of the approached practices expressed interest in the study. Data were collected successfully from the 3 participating practices, although intensive support was required. There were considerable workload implications for staff, both in relation to implementing the screening strategies and managing the research process. 124 of the 600 women opted out of the study. During the four-month study period, 55% (81/146) of the control group attended their practice but none was offered screening. 59% (80/136) women in the opportunistic group attended their practice of whom 55% (44/80) were offered screening. Of those, 64% (28/44) accepted, representing 21% of the opportunistic group. 48% (59/124) of the postal group returned samples. CONCLUSION: A randomised controlled trial comparing postal and opportunistic screening for chlamydial infection in general practice is feasible, though resource intensive. There may be problems with generalising from screening trials in which patients may opt out from the offer of screening

Health Risks, Past Usage, and Intention to Use Weight Loss Products in Normal Weight Women with High and Low Body Dysphoria

Objective: There are many health risks involved with the use of weight loss products by normal weight women. The mass media may compound this problem through the promotion of weight loss products and a thin body size. This study tested women\u27s perceptions of different weight loss product ads to determine if body dysphoria (i.e., an over concern with body size and shape in normal weight people) was associated with risk beliefs, past behaviors, and intention toward using weight loss products. Method: Normal weight women (age range = 18-41 yr), who were classified as either high (n=45) or low (n=43) on a measure of body dysphoria, rated different weight loss products according to their perception of health risks, past behavior, and their intention to consume the products. These products were a dietary fat substitute (olestra), a prescription obesity medication (sibutramine), and an over-the-counter appetite suppressant (phenylpropanolamine). Results: High body dysphoric women reported higher intentions to use the products as well as increased prior use of two of the three weight loss products. High body dysphoric women did not believe that these weight loss products were harmless. They recognized potential health risks associated with using such products, but nonetheless, expressed intention to use these weight loss products at a higher frequency. Also, several variables related to body image were found to effectively discriminate normal weight women at risk for abusing weight loss products. Discussion: This study found that women who do not need to lose weight but have significant body image concerns were willing to use potentially harmful weight loss products despite the knowledge that such products might pose significant health risks. Techniques utilized by advertising regulatory agencies such as warning labels did not have a strong deterrent effect for stated intentions to use the products. Implications of these findings for public health policy issues were discussed

The Dynamics of the One-Dimensional Delta-Function Bose Gas

We give a method to solve the time-dependent Schroedinger equation for a system of one-dimensional bosons interacting via a repulsive delta function potential. The method uses the ideas of Bethe Ansatz but does not use the spectral theory of the associated Hamiltonian

Interferometers as Probes of Planckian Quantum Geometry

A theory of position of massive bodies is proposed that results in an observable quantum behavior of geometry at the Planck scale, $t_P$. Departures from classical world lines in flat spacetime are described by Planckian noncommuting operators for position in different directions, as defined by interactions with null waves. The resulting evolution of position wavefunctions in two dimensions displays a new kind of directionally-coherent quantum noise of transverse position. The amplitude of the effect in physical units is predicted with no parameters, by equating the number of degrees of freedom of position wavefunctions on a 2D spacelike surface with the entropy density of a black hole event horizon of the same area. In a region of size $L$, the effect resembles spatially and directionally coherent random transverse shear deformations on timescale $\approx L/c$ with typical amplitude $\approx \sqrt{ct_PL}$. This quantum-geometrical "holographic noise" in position is not describable as fluctuations of a quantized metric, or as any kind of fluctuation, dispersion or propagation effect in quantum fields. In a Michelson interferometer the effect appears as noise that resembles a random Planckian walk of the beamsplitter for durations up to the light crossing time. Signal spectra and correlation functions in interferometers are derived, and predicted to be comparable with the sensitivities of current and planned experiments. It is proposed that nearly co-located Michelson interferometers of laboratory scale, cross-correlated at high frequency, can test the Planckian noise prediction with current technology.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, Latex. To appear in Physical Review