Optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19: A South African case study

To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A predictive control approach is used to develop optimized lockdown strategies for curbing the spread of COVID-19. The strategies are then applied to South African data. The South African case is of interest as the South African government has defined five distinct levels of lockdown, which serves as a discrete control input. An epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa was previously developed, and is used in conjunction with a hybrid model predictive controller to optimize lockdown management under different policy scenarios. Scenarios considered include how to flatten the curve to a level that the healthcare system can cope with, how to balance lives and livelihoods, and what impact the compliance of the population to the lockdown measures has on the spread of COVID-19. The main purpose of this paper is to show what the optimal lockdown level should be given the policy that is in place, as determined by the closed-loop feedback controller.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 4 table

Localization Properties of the Chalker-Coddington Model

The Chalker Coddington quantum network percolation model is numerically pertinent to the understanding of the delocalization transition of the quantum Hall effect. We study the model restricted to a cylinder of perimeter 2M. We prove firstly that the Lyapunov exponents are simple and in particular that the localization length is finite; secondly that this implies spectral localization. Thirdly we prove a Thouless formula and compute the mean Lyapunov exponent which is independent of M.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure. New section added in which simplicity of the Lyapunov spectrum and finiteness of the localization length are proven. To appear in Annales Henri Poincar

Effect of the oral application of a highly selective MMP-13 inhibitor in three different animal models of rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE: In the present study we evaluated the decrease of cartilage destruction by a novel orally active and specific MMP-13 inhibitor in three different animal models of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The SCID mouse co-implantation model of RA, collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) model in mice and the antigen induced arthritis model (AIA) in rabbits were used. RESULTS: In the SCID mouse co-implantation model this inhibitor resulted in reduced cartilage destruction by 75%. In the CIA model of RA, the MMP-13 inhibitor resulted in a significant and dose dependent decrease in clinical symptoms as well as of cartilage erosion by 38% (30 mg/kg), 28% (10 mg/kg) and 21% (3 mg/kg). No significant effects were observed in the AIA model. No toxic effects were observed in all three animal models. CONCLUSION: Although several MMPs in concert with other proteinases play a role in the process of cartilage destruction, there is a need for highly selective MMP inhibitors to reduce severe side effects that occur with non-specific inhibitors. Significant inhibition of MMP-13 reduced cartilage erosions in two out of three tested animal models of RA. These results strongly support the development of this class of drugs to reduce or halt joint destruction in patients with RA

A primordial origin for the atmospheric methane of Saturn's moon Titan

The origin of Titan's atmospheric methane is a key issue for understanding the origin of the Saturnian satellite system. It has been proposed that serpentinization reactions in Titan's interior could lead to the formation of the observed methane. Meanwhile, alternative scenarios suggest that methane was incorporated in Titan's planetesimals before its formation. Here, we point out that serpentinization reactions in Titan's interior are not able to reproduce the deuterium over hydrogen (D/H) ratio observed at present in methane in its atmosphere, and would require a maximum D/H ratio in Titan's water ice 30% lower than the value likely acquired by the satellite during its formation, based on Cassini observations at Enceladus. Alternatively, production of methane in Titan's interior via radiolytic reactions with water can be envisaged but the associated production rates remain uncertain. On the other hand, a mechanism that easily explains the presence of large amounts of methane trapped in Titan in a way consistent with its measured atmospheric D/H ratio is its direct capture in the satellite's planetesimals at the time of their formation in the solar nebula. In this case, the mass of methane trapped in Titan's interior can be up to 1,300 times the current mass of atmospheric methane.Comment: Accepted for publication in Icaru

Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rainfall data have potential use for malaria prediction. However, the relationship between rainfall and the number of malaria cases is indirect and complex.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The statistical relationships between monthly malaria case count data series and monthly mean rainfall series (extracted from interpolated station data) over the period 1972 – 2005 in districts in Sri Lanka was explored in four analyses: cross-correlation; cross-correlation with pre-whitening; inter-annual; and seasonal inter-annual regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For most districts, strong positive correlations were found for malaria time series lagging zero to three months behind rainfall, and negative correlations were found for malaria time series lagging four to nine months behind rainfall. However, analysis with pre-whitening showed that most of these correlations were spurious. Only for a few districts, weak positive (at lags zero and one) or weak negative (at lags two to six) correlations were found in pre-whitened series. Inter-annual analysis showed strong negative correlations between malaria and rainfall for a group of districts in the centre-west of the country. Seasonal inter-annual analysis showed that the effect of rainfall on malaria varied according to the season and geography.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Seasonally varying effects of rainfall on malaria case counts may explain weak overall cross-correlations found in pre-whitened series, and should be taken into account in malaria predictive models making use of rainfall as a covariate.</p

CD151-α3β1 Integrin Complexes are Prognostic Markers of Glioblastoma and Cooperate with EGFR to Drive Tumor Cell Motility and Invasion

Glioblastoma, one of the most aggressive forms of brain cancer, is featured by high tumor cell motility and invasiveness, which not only fuel tumor infiltration, but also enable escape from surgical or other clinical interventions. Thus, better understanding of how these malignant traits are controlled will be key to the discovery of novel biomarkers and therapies against this deadly disease. Tetraspanin CD151 and its associated α3β1 integrin have been implicated in facilitating tumor progression across multiple cancer types. How these adhesion molecules are involved in the progression of glioblastoma, however, remains largely unclear. Here, we examined an in-house tissue microarray-based cohort of 96 patient biopsies and TCGA dataset to evaluate the clinical significance of CD151 and α3β1 integrin. Functional and signaling analyses were also conducted to understand how these molecules promote the aggressiveness of glioblastoma at molecular and cellular levels. Results from our analyses showed that CD151 and α3 integrin were significantly elevated in glioblastomas at both protein and mRNA levels, and exhibited strong inverse correlation with patient survival (p \u3c 0.006). These adhesion molecules also formed tight protein complexes and synergized with EGF/EGFR to accelerate tumor cell motility and invasion. Furthermore, disruption of such complexes enhanced the survival of tumor-bearing mice in a xenograft model, and impaired activation of FAK and small GTPases. Also, knockdown- or pharmacological agent-based attenuation of EGFR, FAK or Graf (ARHGAP26)/small GTPase-mediated pathways markedly mitigated the aggressiveness of glioblastoma cells. Collectively, our findings provide clinical, molecular and cellular evidence of CD151-α3β1 integrin complexes as promising prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets for glioblastoma

The 'causes' of teenage pregnancy: review of South African research - Part 2

This article forms the second of a two-part series in which South African research on teenage pregnancy is reviewed. Part 1 of the series dealt with the consequences of teenage pregnancy; this paper reviews the 'causes' thereof. International literature is incorporated in the discussion by way of comparison. Contributory factors which have been investigated by South African researchers include: reproductive ignorance; the earlier occurrence of menarche; risktaking behaviour; psychological problems; peer influence; co-ercive sexual relations; dysfunctional family patterns; poor health services; socio-economic status; the breakdown of cultural traditions; and the cultural value placed on children. Preston-Whyte and colleagues present a revisionist argument, stating that early pregnancy may represent a rational life choice for certain adolescent women. The article is concluded with comments on methodological problems encountered in the South African research, and a discussion on the implications in terms of policy formulation

Prime Focus Spectrograph - Subaru's future -

The Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) of the Subaru Measurement of Images and Redshifts (SuMIRe) project has been endorsed by Japanese community as one of the main future instruments of the Subaru 8.2-meter telescope at Mauna Kea, Hawaii. This optical/near-infrared multi-fiber spectrograph targets cosmology with galaxy surveys, Galactic archaeology, and studies of galaxy/AGN evolution. Taking advantage of Subaru's wide field of view, which is further extended with the recently completed Wide Field Corrector, PFS will enable us to carry out multi-fiber spectroscopy of 2400 targets within 1.3 degree diameter. A microlens is attached at each fiber entrance for F-ratio transformation into a larger one so that difficulties of spectrograph design are eased. Fibers are accurately placed onto target positions by positioners, each of which consists of two stages of piezo-electric rotary motors, through iterations by using back-illuminated fiber position measurements with a wide-field metrology camera. Fibers then carry light to a set of four identical fast-Schmidt spectrographs with three color arms each: the wavelength ranges from 0.38 {\mu}m to 1.3 {\mu}m will be simultaneously observed with an average resolving power of 3000. Before and during the era of extremely large telescopes, PFS will provide the unique capability of obtaining spectra of 2400 cosmological/astrophysical targets simultaneously with an 8-10 meter class telescope. The PFS collaboration, led by IPMU, consists of USP/LNA in Brazil, Caltech/JPL, Princeton, & JHU in USA, LAM in France, ASIAA in Taiwan, and NAOJ/Subaru.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, submitted to "Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy IV, Ian S. McLean, Suzanne K. Ramsay, Hideki Takami, Editors, Proc. SPIE 8446 (2012)

Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) for the Subaru Telescope: Overview, recent progress, and future perspectives

PFS (Prime Focus Spectrograph), a next generation facility instrument on the 8.2-meter Subaru Telescope, is a very wide-field, massively multiplexed, optical and near-infrared spectrograph. Exploiting the Subaru prime focus, 2394 reconfigurable fibers will be distributed over the 1.3 deg field of view. The spectrograph has been designed with 3 arms of blue, red, and near-infrared cameras to simultaneously observe spectra from 380nm to 1260nm in one exposure at a resolution of ~1.6-2.7A. An international collaboration is developing this instrument under the initiative of Kavli IPMU. The project is now going into the construction phase aiming at undertaking system integration in 2017-2018 and subsequently carrying out engineering operations in 2018-2019. This article gives an overview of the instrument, current project status and future paths forward.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures. Proceeding of SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 201