Counseling the unemployed: does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence?

This article evaluates the effects of intensive counseling schemes that are provided to about 20% of the unemployed since the 2001 French unemployment policy reform (PARE). Several of the schemes are dedicated at improving the quality of assignment of workers to jobs. As a result, it is necessary to assess their impact on unemployment recurrence as well as unemployment duration. Using duration models and a very rich data set, we can identify heterogenous and time-dependent causal effects of the schemes. We find significant favorable effects on both outcomes, but the impact on unemployment recurrence is stronger than on unemployment duration. In particular, the program shifts the incidence of recurrence, one year after employment, from 33 to 26%. This illustrates that labor market policies evaluations that consider unemployment duration alone can be misleading.unemployment ; active labor market policies ; evaluation ; duration model

Sample Attrition Bias in Randomized Experiments: A Tale of Two Surveys

The randomized trial literature has helped to renew the fields of microeconometric policy evaluation by emphasizing identification issues raised by endogenous program participation. Measurement and attrition issues have perhaps received less attention. This paper analyzes the dramatic impact of sample attrition in a large job search experiment. We take advantage of two independent surveys on the same initial sample of 8, 000 persons. The first one is a long telephone survey that had a strikingly low and unbalanced response rate of about 50%. The second one is a combination of administrative data and a short telephone survey targeted at those leaving the unemployment registers; this enriched data source has a balanced and much higher response rate (about 80%). With naive estimates that neglect non responses, these two sources yield puzzlingly different results. Using the enriched administrative data as benchmark, we find evidence that estimates from the long telephone survey lack external and internal validity. We turn to existing methods to bound the effects in the presence of sample selection; we extend them to the context of randomization with imperfect compliance. The bounds obtained from the two surveys are compatible but those from the long telephone survey are somewhat uninformative. We conclude on the consequences for data collection strategies.randomized evaluation, survey non response, bounds

Sample attrition bias in randomized experiments: A tale of two surveys

The randomized trial literature has helped to renew the field of microeconometric policy evaluation by emphasizing identification issues raised by endogenous program participation. Measurement and attrition issues have perhaps received less attention. This paper analyzes the dramatic impact of sample attrition in a large job search experiment. We take advantage of two independent surveys on the same initial sample of 8,000 persons. The first one is a long telephone survey that had a strikingly low and unbalanced response rate of about 50%. The second one is a combination of administrative data and a short telephone survey targeted at those leaving the unemployment registers; this enriched data source has a balanced and much higher response rate (about 80%). With naive estimates that neglect non responses, these two sources yield puzzlingly different results. Using the enriched administrative data as benchmark, we find evidence that estimates from the long telephone survey lack external and internal validity. We turn to existing methods to bound the effects in the presence of sample selection; we extend them to the context of randomization with imperfect compliance. The bounds obtained from the two surveys are compatible but those from the long telephone survey are somewhat uninformative. We conclude on the consequences for data collection strategies.unemployment ; job search ; counselling ; attrition ; sample selection

Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates

When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.evaluation of labor market programs, training, duration model, timing of events, anticipation

Active labor market policy effects in a dynamic setting

This paper implements a method to identify and estimate treatment effects in a dynamic setting where treatments may occur at any point in time. By relating the standard matching approach to the timing-of-events approach, it demonstrates that effects of the treatment on the treated at a given date can be identified even though non-treated may be treated later in time. The approach builds on a "no anticipation" assumption and the assumption of conditional independence between the duration until treatment and the counterfactual durations until exit. To illustrate the approach, the paper studies the effect of training for unemployed workers in France, using a rich register data set. Training has little impact on unemployment duration. The contamination of the standard matching estimator due to later entries into treatment is large if the treatment probability is high.Treatment; program participation; unemployment duration; training; propensity score; matching; contamination bias

Le cas français : approfondir les connaissances empiriques pour mieux cibler la formation

L’article aborde la stratégie de l’OCDE en matière de formation. L’OCDE plaide en faveur d’une accumulation continue de capital humain et ses recommandations tendent à renforcer les incitations des entreprises et des individus à investir dans le capital humain. Si les chiffres confortent l’analyse de l’OCDE concernant l’inégalité d’accès à la formation, c’est moins vrai concernant l’efficacité des politiques de formation elles-mêmes. L’article pose la question essentielle de l’évaluation des dispositifs de formation comme instrument de lutte contre le chômage de longue durée, pour laquelle les auteurs estiment qu’on ne dispose pas d’informations de qualité permettant d’apprécier l’effet des formations sur les parcours professionnels.The issue is about OECD’S strategy about contuining training. OECD is recommending a continue accumulation of human capital reinforcing the incentives towards the firms and the individuals to invest in human capital. Data agree the OECD analysis about a non equal access to continuing training, but it is not true concerning policies efficacy. This article considers as outstanding the training systems assessment, as a fighting device against long-term unemployment. The authors think that we don’t have enough pertinent information in order to estimate the effect of trainings regarding professional trajectories