Assessing and Simulating the Altered Functioning of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

The current human-dominated era or "Anthropocene" has been a time of unprecedented rates of change within the Earth system. As such the Anthropocene poses a no-analogue situation in which evidence of past Earth system change cannot, on their own, tell us of how the system will respond in the future. Instead, we need to develop mechanistic and phenomenological models based on robust underlying principles to extrapolate our knowledge of the past Earth system into projections of the future. This requires an entire spectrum of Earth system models that can be related to each other in a more rigorous way that has been achieved to date. It also requires new integrated models of the two-way coupling between the biophysical and human aspects of the Earth system. Only then will we be able to approach all of the paleodata constraints on the Earth system dynamics (which require long simulations), while also providing regionally specific Earth system projections and spatially specific human development paths for policy makers (which requires, in both cases, high-resolution comprehensive models as well as models that can bridge spatial and temporal scales). Such a spectrum of models offers a solution to the tension between "simulation," which inevitably leads to increasing model complexity, and "understanding," which often involves reducing the system to its bare necessities

Integrating genome-wide polygenic risk scores and non-genetic risk to predict colorectal cancer diagnosis: a cohort study in UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the benefit of combining polygenic risk scores with the QCancer-10 (colorectal cancer) prediction model for non-genetic risk to identify people at highest risk of colorectal cancer. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Data from the UK Biobank study, collected between March 2006 and July 2010. PARTICIPANTS: 434 587 individuals with complete data for genetics and QCancer-10 predictions were included in the QCancer-10 plus polygenic risk score modelling and validation cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction of colorectal cancer diagnosis by genetic, non-genetic, and combined risk models. Using data from UK Biobank, six different polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer were developed using LDpred2 polygenic risk score software, clumping, and thresholding approaches, and a model based on genome-wide significant polymorphisms. The top performing genome-wide polygenic risk score and the score containing genome-wide significant polymorphisms were combined with QCancer-10 and performance was compared with QCancer-10 alone. Case-control (logistic regression) and time-to-event (Cox proportional hazards) analyses were used to evaluate risk model performance in men and women. RESULTS: Polygenic risk scores derived using the LDpred2 program performed best, with an odds ratio per standard deviation of 1.584 (95% confidence interval 1.536 to 1.633), and top age and sex adjusted C statistic of 0.733 (95% confidence interval 0.710 to 0.753) in logistic regression models in the validation cohort. Integrated QCancer-10 plus polygenic risk score models out-performed QCancer-10 alone. In men, the integrated LDpred2 model produced a C statistic of 0.730 (0.720 to 0.741) and explained variation of 28.2% (26.3 to 30.1), compared with 0.693 (0.682 to 0.704) and 21.0% (18.9 to 23.1) for QCancer-10 alone. In women, the C statistic for the integrated LDpred2 model was 0.687 (0.673 to 0.702) and explained variation was 21.0% (18.7 to 23.7), compared with 0.645 (0.631 to 0.659) and 12.4% (10.3 to 14.6) for QCancer-10 alone. In the top 20% of individuals at highest absolute risk, the sensitivity and specificity of the integrated LDpred2 models for predicting colorectal cancer diagnosis was 47.8% and 80.3% respectively in men, and 42.7% and 80.1% respectively in women, with increases in absolute risk in the top 5% of risk in men of 3.47-fold and in women of 2.77-fold compared with the median. Illustrative decision curve analysis indicated a small incremental improvement in net benefit with QCancer-10 plus polygenic risk score models compared with QCancer-10 alone. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating polygenic risk scores with QCancer-10 modestly improves risk prediction over use of QCancer-10 alone. Given that QCancer-10 data can be obtained relatively easily from health records, use of polygenic risk score in risk stratified population screening for colorectal cancer currently has no clear justification. The added benefit, cost effectiveness, and acceptability of polygenic risk scores should be carefully evaluated in a real life screening setting before implementation in the general population

Non-cubic layered structure of Ba(1-x)K(x)BiO3 superconductor

Bismuthate superconductor Ba(1-x)K(x)BiO3 (x=0.27-0.49, Tc=25-32K) grown by an electrolysis technique was studied by electron diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy. The crystalline structure thereof has been found to be non-cubic, of the layered nature, and non-centrosymmetric, with the lattice parameters a ~ ap, c ~ 2ap (ap is a simple cubic perovskite cell parameter) containing an ordered arrangement of barium and potassium. The evidence for the layered nature of the bismuthate superconductor removes the principal crystallographic contradiction between bismuthate and cuprate high-Tc superconductors.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to be published in Physical Review B as a Rapid Communicatio

Misdiagnosed and misunderstood’: Insights into rarer forms of dementia through a stepwise approach to co-constructed research poetry

This study investigated co-constructed research poetry as a way to understand the lived experiences of people affected by rarer dementia and as a means to use poetry to convey those experiences to healthcare professionals. Using mixed methods, 71 people living with rarer dementia and care-partners (stakeholders) contributed to co-constructing 27 poems with professional poets; stakeholders’ verbatim words were analysed with descriptive qualitative analysis. Stakeholders were also surveyed and interviewed about their participation. Healthcare professionals (n = 93) were surveyed to elicit their responses to learning through poetry and its acceptability as a learning tool. Poems conveyed a shared narrative of different aspects of lived experience, often owing to atypical symptoms, misunderstandings by professionals, lack of support pathways, and a continuous struggle to adapt. Stakeholder surveys indicated it was a valuable experience to both co-create and respond to the poems, whilst group interviews revealed people’s experiences of the research poetry were characterised by reflection on lived experience, curiosity and exploration. Healthcare professionals’ responses reinforced poetry’s capacity to stimulate cognitive and affective learning specific to rare dementia support and prompt both empathy and critical thinking in practice. As the largest poetry-based study that we are aware of, this novel accessible approach of creating group poems yielded substantial information about the experiences and needs of those affected by rarer dementia and how poetry can contribute to healthcare education and training

Observations of fog‐aerosol interactions over central Greenland

Supercooled fogs can have an important radiative impact at the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but they are difficult to detect and our understanding of the factors that control their lifetime and radiative properties is limited by a lack of observations. This study demonstrates that spectrally resolved measurements of downwelling longwave radiation can be used to generate retrievals of fog microphysical properties (phase and particle effective radius) when the fog visible optical depth is greater than ∼0.25. For 12 cases of fog under otherwise clear skies between June and September 2019 at Summit Station in central Greenland, nine cases were mixed-phase. The mean ice particle (optically-equivalent sphere) effective radius was 24.0 ± 7.8 µm, and the mean liquid droplet effective radius was 14.0 ± 2.7 µm. These results, combined with measurements of aerosol particle number concentrations, provide evidence supporting the hypotheses that (a) low surface aerosol particle number concentrations can limit fog liquid water path, (b) fog can act to increase near-surface aerosol particle number concentrations through enhanced mixing, and (c) multiple fog events in quiescent periods gradually deplete near-surface aerosol particle number concentrations

The Local Bubble and Interstellar Material Near the Sun

The properties of interstellar matter (ISM) at the Sun are regulated by our location with respect to the Local Bubble (LB) void in the ISM. The LB is bounded by associations of massive stars and fossil supernovae that have disrupted natal ISM and driven intermediate velocity ISM into the LB interior void. The Sun is located in such a driven ISM parcel. The Local Fluff has a bulk velocity of 19 km/s in the LSR, and an upwind direction towards the center of the gas and dust ring formed by the Loop I supernova remnant interaction with the LB. When the ram pressure of the LIC is included in the total LIC pressure, and if magnetic thermal and cosmic ray pressures are similar, the LIC appears to be in pressure equilibrium with the local hot bubble plasma.Comment: Proceedings of Symposium on the Composition of Matter, honoring Johannes Geiss on the occasion of his 80th birthday. Space Science Reviews (in press