20 research outputs found

    Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

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    Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

    Prevalência do tracoma em pré-escolares e escolares no Município de São Paulo Prevalence of trachoma in preschool and schoolchildren in the city of São Paulo

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    OBJETIVO: Conhecer a prevalência de tracoma em pré-escolares e escolares das escolas públicas para redirecionar as atividades de seu controle. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se inquérito epidemiológico no Município de São Paulo, em 1999. A seleção das crianças com idade entre quatro e 14 anos foi feita por meio de amostragem por conglomerados, sendo o turno de estudo a unidade amostral. Foi realizado exame ocular externo para detectar a presença de sinais clínicos de tracoma. RESULTADOS: Das 27.091 crianças examinadas foram diagnosticados 597 casos de tracoma (2,2%; IC 95%: 1,86-2,55). A prevalência variou de 0,4% a 4,2% entre as 10 regiões do Município de São Paulo. A taxa de detecção entre os comunicantes foi de 8,7%. Tracoma folicular foi encontrado em 99,0% dos casos e tracoma intenso em 1,0% dos casos. Verificou-se que 22,5% dos casos eram assintomáticos. CONCLUSÕES: Embora a prevalência tenha sido baixa, a presença de formas graves aponta para a possibilidade da existência de casos cicatriciais no futuro, se não houver tratamento e controle adequado. A grande diferença entre as taxas encontradas para cada uma das regiões da cidade, indica a necessidade de intensificação das ações de vigilância epidemiológica do tracoma.<br>OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of trachoma among preschool and school children of public schools to give new focus to control programs. METHODS: An epidemiological survey was carried out in São Paulo City in 1999. Children between four and 14 years old were selected by a cluster sampling where school shift was the sampling unit. External eye examination was conducted to detect trachoma. RESULTS: A total of 27,091 children were examined and 597 cases of trachoma were found (2.2%; 95% CI: 1.86-2.55). The prevalence ranged from 0.4% to 4.2% in 10 city areas. The trachoma detection rate in the household contacts examined was 8.7%. Follicular trachoma was found in 99% of the cases and intense trachoma in 1.0%. It was observed that 21.8% of the cases were asymptomatic. CONCLUSIONS: Though the trachoma prevalence was low, the occurrence of severe cases points out to the likelihood of cicatricial trachoma cases in the future if they are not adequately treated and controlled. The great difference in the prevalences in different city areas indicates the need for strengthening epidemiological surveillance activities
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