Identifying safety strategies for on-farm grain bins using risk analysis

The potential for grain bin accidents exists each year on Arkansas farms and farms across the nation. The trend toward increasing utilization of on-farm grain drying and storage could lead to an increase in grain bin accidents. The sharp contrast between a safe, efficient operation and one that leads to injury or death can be represented as sets of farmer-decisions and subsequent chance events. A model was constructed to define the risk associated with grain bin entry and inbin activity so that safety interventions could be identified and implemented to reduce the probability of injury and death. A survey was distributed to Arkansas grain farmers to gather data on the level of safety education, storage techniques, operations management, and other parameters. The data collected from the survey provided quantitative input of many of the model’s probability-distribution functions. Using a fault tree (with parallel modes of failure) in conjunction with a Monte Carlo simulation technique, we evaluated six safety intervention strategies and identified the one with the greatest potential for reducing the risk of serous injury or death. As part of senior design in biological engineering, plans are underway to design and test a probe that can locate and break bridged grain (a common risk factor in grain bin management) while working outside the bin on the ground

A Direct, Approximate Solution to the Modified Green-Ampt Infiltration Equation

Accurately predicting the rainfall-runoff process is of vital importance for water quality models as well as for correct design of various types of hydraulic structures. This article presents a method of describing the cumulative infiltration process as an explicit function of time using an approximation to the modified Green-Ampt equation given by Mein and Larson (1971). The resulting equation is helpful in predicting cumulative infiltration and therefore infiltration capacity for computer simulation models. The proposed method takes about 50% less time than the usual iterative technique for the same degree of accuracy. The maximum error due to approximation was 1% and generally the error was much less, making this solution acceptable for most practical problems

Validating a Vegetative Filter Strip Performance Model

Vegetative filter strips (VFS) reduce losses of nutrients, solids, and other materials from land area treated with fertilizers and manures. A number of models are available that simulate nutrient and sediment transport in VFS. While VFS effectiveness is considered to depend on lengths of pollutant source area and VFS areas, few published studies have tried to validate these models using variable pollutant source area and VFS area. The objective of this study was to validate an event-based nutrient transport model (Chaubey et al., 1995) that simulates soluble nutrient transport in VFS. This model links three sub-models: modified Green-Ampt infiltration, non-linear kinematic wave overland flow routing, and a nutrient transport component. The nutrient transport component considers infiltration as the only mechanism of pollutant removal from runoff. Data from a field plot experiment were used to validate the model. The model was executed using an uncalibrated runoff component, a calibrated runoff component, and measured runoff. The concentrations of parameters entering the VFS from three different poultry litter application lengths (6.1, 12.2, and 18.3 m) were not significantly different. However, predicted concentrations at subsequent lengths were different for all the three poultry litter application lengths. This finding was consistent with the observed data. Model execution with the uncalibrated runoff component, calibrated runoff component, and measured runoff underpredicted concentrations and mass transport at various locations along the length of the VFS. Underprediction of concentration was judged to be the reason for underprediction of mass transport. The agreement between the observed and predicted concentrations and mass transport, however, improved when runoff predictions from the calibrated runoff component and measured runoff were used. This suggests that accurate prediction of infiltration and runoff is critical for accurate prediction of concentration mass transport. Furthermore, since concentration was underpredicted even when measured runoff was used, this study suggests that the nutrient transport component might be improved, possibly by including nutrient removal mechanisms other than infiltration

Performance of Vegetative Filter Strips with Varying Pollutant Source and Filter Strip Lengths

Vegetative filter strips (VFS) can reduce runoff losses of pollutants such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from land areas treated with fertilizers. While VFS effectiveness is considered to depend on lengths of pollutant source and VFS areas, there is little experimental evidence of this dependence, particularly when the pollutant source is manure-treated pasture. This study assessed the effects of pollutant source area (fescue pasture treated with poultry litter) length and VFS (fescue pasture) length on VFS removal of nitrate N (NO3-N), ammonia N (NH3-N), total Kjeldahl N (TKN), ortho-P (PO4-P), total P (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), total suspended solids (TSS), and fecal coliform (FC) from incoming runoff. This research examined poultry litter-treated lengths of 6.1, 12.2, and 18.3 m, with corresponding VFS lengths of up to 18.3 m, 12.2 m, and 6.1 m, respectively. Runoff was produced from simulated rainfall applied to both the litter-treated and VFS areas at 50 mm/h for 1 h of runoff. Pollutant concentrations in runoff were unaffected by litter-treated length but demonstrated a first-order exponential decline with increasing VFS length except for TSS and FC. Runoff mass transport of NH3-N,TKN, PO4-P, TP and TOC increased with increasing litter-treated length (due to increased runoff) and decreased (approximately first-order exponential decline) with increasing VFS length when affected by VFS length. Effectiveness of the VFS in terms of NH3-N, TKN, PO4-P, TP and TOC removal from runoff ranged from 12-75, 22-67, 22-82, 21-66, and 8-30% respectively. The data from this study can help in developing and testing models that simulate VFS performance and thus aid in the design of VFS installed downslope of pasture areas treated with animal manure

A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments

There were 25.6 million attendances at Emergency Departments (EDs) in England in 2019 corresponding to an increase of 12 million attendances over the past ten years. The steadily rising demand at EDs creates a constant challenge to provide adequate quality of care while maintaining standards and productivity. Managing hospital demand effectively requires an adequate knowledge of the future rate of admission. Using 8 years of electronic admissions data from two major acute care hospitals in London, we develop a novel ensemble methodology that combines the outcomes of the best performing time series and machine learning approaches in order to make highly accurate forecasts of demand, 1, 3 and 7 days in the future. Both hospitals face an average daily demand of 208 and 106 attendances respectively and experience considerable volatility around this mean. However, our approach is able to predict attendances at these emergency departments one day in advance up to a mean absolute error of +/- 14 and +/- 10 patients corresponding to a mean absolute percentage error of 6.8% and 8.6% respectively. Our analysis compares machine learning algorithms to more traditional linear models. We find that linear models often outperform machine learning methods and that the quality of our predictions for any of the forecasting horizons of 1, 3 or 7 days are comparable as measured in MAE. In addition to comparing and combining state-of-the-art forecasting methods to predict hospital demand, we consider two different hyperparameter tuning methods, enabling a faster deployment of our models without compromising performance. We believe our framework can readily be used to forecast a wide range of policy relevant indicators

Treating MS after surviving PML: Discrete strategies for rescue, remission, and recovery patient 1: From the National Multiple Sclerosis Society Case Conference Proceedings

A 38-year-old woman with MS receiving natalizumab presented to the neurology clinic with the complaint of a new neurologic symptom

Same day discharge for robot-assisted radical prostatectomy: a prospective cohort study documenting an Australian approach.

BACKGROUND The introduction of robotic surgical systems has significantly impacted urological surgery, arguably more so than other surgical disciplines. The focus of our study was length of hospital stay - patients have traditionally been discharged day 1 post-robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), however, during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and consequential resource limitations, our centre has facilitated a cohort of same-day discharges with initial success. METHODS We conducted a prospective tertiary single-centre cohort study of a series of all patients (n = 28) - undergoing RARP between January and April 2021. All patients were considered for a day zero discharge pathway which consisted of strict inclusion criteria. At follow-up, each patient's perspective on their experience was assessed using a validated post-operative satisfaction questionnaire. Data were reviewed retrospectively for all those undergoing RARP over the study period, with day zero patients compared to overnight patients. RESULTS Overall, 28 patients 20 (71%) fulfilled the objective criteria for day zero discharge. Eleven patients (55%) agreed pre-operatively to day zero discharge and all were successfully discharged on the same day as their procedure. There was no statistically significant difference in age, BMI, ASA, Charlson score or disease volume. All patients indicated a high level of satisfaction with their procedure. Median time from completion of surgery to discharge was 426 min (7.1 h) in the day zero discharge cohort. CONCLUSION Day zero discharge for RARP appears to deliver high satisfaction, oncological and safety outcomes. Therefore, our study demonstrates early success with unsupported same-day discharge in carefully selected and pre-counselled patients

The Grizzly, November 19, 2015

On the Way to the Final Four • Watson Finalists Prepare for Next Steps • U-Imagine Center Offers First Course • Committee Searches for Violence Prevention Educator • International Perspective: Dealing With Graduation Concerns Abroad • Warming Up to the Challenge • Podcast Roars to Life • Preparing for Professional Life • Opinions: It\u27s On Us is Insufficient; Wellness Critics are Ill-Informed • New Era Begins for Women\u27s Basketball • Two Wrestlers Named Preseason All-Americans • Final Four Boundhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1678/thumbnail.jp