The role of ethanol in the brazilian economy: three decades of progress

Sustainable energy strategies require decision-makers in government, industry, academia and civil society alike to make choices among tradeoffs. Within the transport sector alone, ethanol has been shown to be the dominant solution among viable, low carbon options to date, yet questions remain over the economic and ecological impacts of this industry. In Brazil - the largest producer of sugarcane-based ethanol and a country with over three decades of ethanol development – we find a strong basis for evaluating the ethanol industry’s role in a national economy. In the mid 1970’s, Brazilian ethanol production received an important boost with the launch of the “Proálcool” program. The ethanol industry has subsequently evidenced flux until its consolidation in the period following 2000. Over the course of three decades, economic, institutional, technological and environmental determinants have factored in the success of Brazilian ethanol diffusion. In economic terms, price tradeoffs for ethanol vs. sugar and ethanol vs. gasoline played a role in scale-up of the biofuel together with balance of payment considerations. From an institutional standpoint, support for the Proálcool program, deregulation of the sugar-cane sector in the 1990’s and fuel pump adaptations also factored. With respect to technology, the development of flex fuel cars, greater use of mechanized harvesting, and launch of domestic, co-generated, electrical power were key drivers. Finally, in environmental terms, challenges associated with pollution and public health in major cities as well as questions related to climate change gained visibility. In this paper, we analyze a set of input-output tables for the Brazilian economy from 1975 to 2006, taking the above factors into consideration. Deriving a series of indicators, such as multipliers and linkages, we study the evolution of the ethanol sector’s role in the Brazilian economy and its relation to the productive structure of the countryBrazil, Ethanol, Input-Output, Productive Structure

Escalada tarifária e exportações brasileiras da agroindústria do café e da soja

A escalada tarifária, em que o emprego de tarifas de importação sobre componentes ou matéria-prima é mais baixo e aumenta progressivamente para bens semifinais ou finais, estimula a importação de produtos primários em detrimento dos processados. Este artigo mensura os ganhos para o Brasil com a eliminação da escalada tarifária para produtos do café na União Européia (UE), e da soja na China e na UE, comparando esses resultados com os de uma redução da escalada proposta na Rodada Doha da OMC (Organização Mundial do Comércio). Para tanto, foram simuladas reduções tarifárias e quantificados os impactos comerciais com uma modelagem de equilíbrio parcial. Os resultados indicam que as negociações sob a rodada Doha da OMC poderão reduzir a escalada tarifária que incide sobre produtos do café na UE e da soja na China e na UE, no entanto sem a eliminar, para o que seriam necessários cortes tarifários mais elevados. Os impactos comerciais se mostraram maiores na simulação de eliminação da escalada tarifária do que na de uma redução, conforme esperado. Quantificou-se o volume de comércio que o Brasil deixaria de ganhar no caso da adoção da proposta de Doha para corte da escalada. Na UE, o aumento das importações dos produtos brasileiros processados do café e da soja poderia ser 75,4% maior com a eliminação da escalada tarifária do que com a redução conforme Doha.The tariff escalation, where the import duties on components or raw materials are lower, and move progressively higher on semi-finished goods upwards to the finished goods, stimulates the imports of primary commodities rather than processed products. This article measures the gains to Brazil with the elimination of the tariff escalation for coffee products in the European Union (EU), and soybean products in China and in the EU, comparing these results with those of an escalation reduction proposed in the Doha Round of the WTO (World Trade Organization). For that purpose, tariff reductions have been simulated and the impact upon trade has been evaluated with the application of partial equilibrium modeling. The results indicate that trade under the Doha round of the WTO can reduce the tariff escalation although it is not phased out, which would require greater tariff cuts. The impacts upon trade have been higher in the simulation of an elimination of tariff escalation than in its reduction, as expected. It was possible to quantify the trade flows that Brazil would not gain if the Doha proposal for tariff escalation reduction was adopted. The EU imports of coffee and soybean processed products from Brazil could be 75.4 percent higher with the elimination of the tariff escalation than under its reduction according to Doha negotiations

O subsídio cruzado às exportações de açúcar da União Européia: impacto sobre as exportações brasileiras de açúcar

This work presents and discusses a procedure to quantify the effects that cross subsidies provided for the EU refined sugar exports have upon Brazilian exports. This price effect was associated to cross price elasticities of sugar import demand for the EU sugar. This was followed by a simulation of an elimination of sugar subsidies by the European Union, to evaluate the effect of this change upon the import demand of Brazilian refined sugar. This import demand was restricted, however, to those importers that buy sugar from both exporters, Brazil and UE through the period taken of the analysis. The effect was disaggregated in terms of the main production region of the country, showing that the sugar import increase by Center-South Brazil would be more expressive, of about six times superior than the estimated impact upon the North- Northeastern region.Este trabalho apresenta e discute um procedimento para quantificar os efeitos dos subsídios cruzados auferidos pelas exportações de açúcar refinado da União Européia (UE) sobre a exportação brasileira de açúcar. Estimou-se, a princípio, o impacto do subsídio sobre o preço ao qual o açúcar refinado é exportado pela UE. Esse efeito-preço foi associado à elasticidade-preço cruzada da demanda de importação de açúcar. A seguir, procedeu-se à simulação da eliminação do subsídio ao açúcar na União Européia para estimar o impacto dessa mudança sobre a demanda de importação pelo açúcar brasileiro refinado. Essa demanda de importação foi limitada, no entanto, apenas aos mercados comuns ao Brasil e à EU, durante o período da análise. Esse impacto foi desagregado em termos das principais regiões produtoras do País, tendo-se verificado que o incremento pela importação do açúcar da região Centro-Sul do Brasil seria bem mais expressivo, da ordem de seis vezes superior ao estimado para a região Norte-Nordeste

Importância de uma política de saneamento rural no Brasil

Brazil has more than 23 million rural people with unimproved sanitation, which corresponds to about 75% of rural population. This study aimed to measure the social, environmental and economic impacts caused by implementation of a technological proposal for sanitation: “septic cesspool biodigester”. It was found that, per year, the implementation of this technology in rural homes with unimproved sanitation could: reduce about 250 deaths and 5.5 million infections caused by diarrheal diseases; reduce pollution of waterways by about 250 thousand tons of BOD and; that every R$1.00 invested in the implementation of alternative technology evaluated could cause a return to the society of R$2.55 in GDP. Moreover, the jobs would increase from 51 thousand

Expected growth of sugarcane industry and impact on the Brazilian economy: 2015 and 2020

The sugarcane sector in Brazil has been achieving large increases in production since the beginning of the 2000s, owing to the deregulation of its two main products: sugar and ethanol. This growth has been driven more by the ethanol production, which grew at a rate of 13% per annum (between 2000 and 2009), than by sugar, which grew at an annual rate of 8% over the same period. Nevertheless, instability in the supply of ethanol is still a problem in the industry. Structural changes, such as the mechanization of sugarcane harvesting, are also in progress. Taking into account the future demands for sugar and ethanol and structural changes in projections, made by industry representatives for the years 2015 and 2020, this article employs inuput-output analysis to estimate the impact of these projections on the Brazilian economy. The results show that in 2010, with a production of R$66.6 billion for sugar and R$ 36.2 billion for ethanol (at 2010 prices), the total impact on the economy was about R$374.6 billion in Total Output (TO), R$ 210 billion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), R$ 62.4 billion in remuneration to employees, and a gain of 5.1 million jobs, per annum. For 2015, the estimated economic impact on TO, GDP and employee earnings was 56% higher than the values for 2010. As for 2020, the projections showed that the increases were in the range from 109 to 117% in scenario 1, or 91 to 98% in scenario 2. For job numbers, the impact in 2015 was 48% higher than that reported for 2010, while in 2020 it was between 82 to 99% higher. It was also observed that the income effect of the shocks in the ethanol and sugar sectors was the most significant part of the predicted impact on the number of jobs created in the economy. The results showed, therefore, the importance of the sugarcane industry in the economy, emphasizing the need for government policies to foster the growth of this sector

Impacto da diferenciação do ICMS entre etanol hidratado e gasolina C para a economia do Estado de Minas Gerais

The taxation policy of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) differentiated between fuel encourages ethanol consumption because of the lower rate charged on it in relation to that charged on gasoline C in some states of Brazil. The State of Sao Paulo has a lower tax rate for hydrous ethanol (12%) compared to gasoline C (25%). This study aimed to identify the impacts on the Brazilian economy resulting from a policy of differentiation between the fuel tax that benefits the ethanol consumption. For this, we analyzed the losses that could be generated by the increase in tax rate for ethanol in Sao Paulo. The methodology was used to analyze the input-output matrix, being the same for the year 2004 and specific to the State of Sao Paulo. The results indicated that the reduction in the rate of VAT for hydrous ethanol relative to gasoline, has economic benefits (increase in values of GDP, production and reduced imports) and social (increase in the amount of the fee and posts employment) for the Brazilian economy. We conclude that taxation policies may be essential for the development of some markets and that such development can generate economic and social gains. Sectors related to agribusiness, as the case of hydrated ethanol in this study indicate this fact

Impactos da agricultura de precisão na economia brasileira

In order to estimate the potential impact of the adoption of the main techniques of precision agriculture in the Brazilian agriculture on socio economic development, this study used an extensive bibliographic review of the main results that the techniques of precision agriculture and simulated impacts in agriculture. For this, was considered the potential of agricultural activity that can be benefited by these technology. The following impacts were analyzed using the inputoutput matrix of the country with the main products analyzed as individual sectors. The products analyzed were: sugarcane, corn and soybeans. It was observed that a scenario of a 10% increase in productivity indicated that the impacts on the economy could be increased from $ 11 billion in GDP and more than 450.000 jobs. However, a scenario of reduced use of fertilizer did not show favorable socio-economic impacts considering the impacts in Brazilian economy

Impactos sociais, econômicos e ambientais da melhoria no saneamento básico rural no Brasil

Brazil has more than 23 million rural people with unimproved sanitation, which corresponds to about 75% of rural population. One reflection of this situation is observed in health, where there is an index of mortality caused by diarrhea (the main disease caused by unimproved sanitation) similar to the poorer countries of Africa and it is the third largest in South America, according to the WHO (2004). This study aimed to measure the social, environmental and economic impacts caused by implementation of a technological proposal for sanitation: “septic cesspool biodigester”, as an alternative for the rural environment. It was found that the implementation of this technology in rural homes with unimproved sanitation could: reduce about 250 deaths and 5.5 million infections caused by diarrheal diseases each year in the country; reduce pollution of waterways by about 250 thousand tons per year of BOD and; that every R$1.00 invested in the implementation of alternative technology evaluated could cause a return to the economy of R$4.69 in production and R$2.55 in GDP. Moreover, the imports would decrease from R$122 million and occur an increase of 51 thousand jobs

Impactos da agricultura de precisão na economia brasileira

In order to estimate the potential impact of the adoption of the main techniques of precision agriculture in the Brazilian agriculture on socio economic development, this study used an extensive bibliographic review of the main results that the techniques of precision agriculture and simulated impacts in agriculture. For this, was considered the potential of agricultural activity that can be benefited by these technology. The following impacts were analyzed using the inputoutput matrix of the country with the main products analyzed as individual sectors. The products analyzed were: sugarcane, corn and soybeans. It was observed that a scenario of a 10% increase in productivity indicated that the impacts on the economy could be increased from $ 11 billion in GDP and more than 450.000 jobs. However, a scenario of reduced use of fertilizer did not show favorable socio-economic impacts considering the impacts in Brazilian economy