The optimal allocation of water along a system of rivers: a continuous model with sequential bidding

This paper uses a control theory approach to analyse the collectively optimal rate of extraction along a river system and constructs a bidding mechanism that would produce the required prices at each point. It also analyses some characteristics of this mechanism. This approach brings some new perspective to existing work on externalities. It also helps bring to light some aspects of the system as a whole that may be less obvious in a more piecemeal analysis, including the fact that there may not be an optimal solution to the allocation problem. Although the bidding mechanism may be difficult to implement, it may be possible to design various forms of hybrid schemes that have practical value.control theory, mechanism design, optimal allocation, rights markets, waters, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The dynamics of resource spending in a competition between political parties: general notes on the Red Queen effect

Competition between political parties is a process that unfolds over time whereas formal theories of party competition have tended to take an essentially static, or one-shot, approach. This leaves some gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of campaigning. The aim of this paper is to make up some of this gap. This is done using a differential game theory model to analyse a situation in which support for a party depends on the amount spent on marketing relative to the expenditure of the other party. One of the main results is that, even when voters are not myopic, the logic of the competition forces parties to accelerate expenditure on campaigning during the period between elections. JEL Categories: C61, C72, C73, D72.party competition, dynamics, differential games.

Improving population-specific allele frequency estimates by adapting supplemental data: an empirical Bayes approach

Estimation of the allele frequency at genetic markers is a key ingredient in biological and biomedical research, such as studies of human genetic variation or of the genetic etiology of heritable traits. As genetic data becomes increasingly available, investigators face a dilemma: when should data from other studies and population subgroups be pooled with the primary data? Pooling additional samples will generally reduce the variance of the frequency estimates; however, used inappropriately, pooled estimates can be severely biased due to population stratification. Because of this potential bias, most investigators avoid pooling, even for samples with the same ethnic background and residing on the same continent. Here, we propose an empirical Bayes approach for estimating allele frequencies of single nucleotide polymorphisms. This procedure adaptively incorporates genotypes from related samples, so that more similar samples have a greater influence on the estimates. In every example we have considered, our estimator achieves a mean squared error (MSE) that is smaller than either pooling or not, and sometimes substantially improves over both extremes. The bias introduced is small, as is shown by a simulation study that is carefully matched to a real data example. Our method is particularly useful when small groups of individuals are genotyped at a large number of markers, a situation we are likely to encounter in a genome-wide association study.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS121 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Social choice and information: a note on the calculus of mappings from utility spaces

Social choice is studied in this paper as a mapping from information on utilities over states of the world to an ordering of those states of the world. The idea of using this type of information originates in the work of Sen and Roberts. This paper differs in that it uses theorems from analysis to derive its results in a straightforward manner. It also gives information on the way in which all states of the world, on any path through the set of states of the world, must be ordered. JEL Categories: D60, D71.social choice theory, information, analysis.

Consistency of Bayes estimators of a binary regression function

When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical priors, called uniform mixture priors. These are defined as follows: let $\nu$ be any probability distribution on the nonnegative integers. To sample a function $f$ from the prior $\pi^{\nu}$, first sample $m$ from $\nu$ and then sample $f$ uniformly from the set of step functions from $[0,1]$ into $[0,1]$ that have exactly $m$ jumps (i.e., sample all $m$ jump locations and $m+1$ function values independently and uniformly). The main result states that if a data-stream is generated according to any fixed, measurable binary-regression function $f_0\not\equiv1/2$, then frequentist consistency obtains: that is, for any $\nu$ with infinite support, the posterior of $\pi^{\nu}$ concentrates on any $L^1$ neighborhood of $f_0$. Solution of an associated large-deviations problem is central to the consistency proof.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000236 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Relative advantage, queue jumping, and welfare maximizing wealth distribution

Suppose individuals get utilities from the total amount of wealth they hold and from their wealth relative to those immediately below them. This paper studies the distribution of wealth that maximizes an additive welfare function made up of these utilities. It interprets wealth distribution in a control theory framework to show that the welfare maximizing distribution may have unexpected properties. In some circumstances it requires that inequality be maximized at the poorest and richest ends of the distribution. In other circumstances it requires that all wealth be given to a single individual. JEL Categories: C61, D60wealth distribution, positional goods, status, inequality, relative advantage.

Up Front and Beyond the Centre Line: Australian Aborigines in Elite Australian Rules Football

Although there has been a substantial growth in the number of Aboriginal players in the Australian Football League over the past decade, issues of structural and institutional racism have not been explored. This investigation of the assignment of players by position revealed marked patterns of difference, which tend to reflect stereotypes about Aboriginal athletes. The results are similar to research conducted in the USA and the UK but suggest even stronger patterns of differentiation

The Question of Remilitarization: Is Japan\u27s Pacifist Nature in Danger of Reform

Though Article 9 has not been revised since it was implemented in 1947, the past two decades have seen an increase in Japanese military capability due to the government’s loose interpretation of Article 9 and its limitations to allow for Japanese involvement in collective security operations internationally. As a result, a number of Japanese political scholars and newspapers have projected the possibility of not only Japanese constitutional revision but also the re-militarization of Japan as well. Interested in finding out whether or not this projection has any likelihood of success in the future, I have posed the following question: Why has the constitution and the pacifism that it enshrines been so resistant to change despite a changing political context, and does the increase of Japanese public support for constitutional revision necessarily mean re-militarization for Japan? Taking a constructivist approach, I will argue that although pro-constitutional revision forces in Japan have tried to use fear politics and the revival of a Japanese “national spirit” to promote constitutional revision and ultimately re-militarization, the Japanese public has been relatively unreceptive to their ploy due to the integration of pacifism into the Japanese collective identity