1 research outputs found
Elements for a Theory of Financial Risks
Estimating and controlling large risks has become one of the main concern of
financial institutions. This requires the development of adequate statistical
models and theoretical tools (which go beyond the traditionnal theories based
on Gaussian statistics), and their practical implementation. Here we describe
three interrelated aspects of this program: we first give a brief survey of the
peculiar statistical properties of the empirical price fluctuations. We then
review how an option pricing theory consistent with these statistical features
can be constructed, and compared with real market prices for options. We
finally argue that a true `microscopic' theory of price fluctuations (rather
than a statistical model) would be most valuable for risk assessment. A simple
Langevin-like equation is proposed, as a possible step in this direction.Comment: 22 pages, to appear in `Order, Chance and Risk', Les Houches (March
1998), to be published by Springer/EDP Science