User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries

The authors develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain"vulnerable"situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, the authors use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables-which are widely available and reported with timeliness. The authors tested the models'out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994.Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Geographical Information Systems

NONPARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY: DISCUSSION

Productivity Analysis,

ESTIMATION OF FIRM-VARYING, INPUT-SPECIFIC EFFICIENCIES IN DAIRY PRODUCTION

Firm-varying production technologies were estimated using random coefficients regression methods for a sample of Massachusetts dairy farms. Results were compared to OLS Cobb-Douglas production function estimates. The random coefficients regression model was found to virtually eliminate conventionally measured firm technical inefficiencies by estimating individual firm technologies and ascribing remaining inefficiencies to specific inputs. Input-specific measures of firm inefficiencies showed hired labor, land, and machinery inputs to be used in excess of efficient levels. Livestock supplies were underutilized by all farms. Efficiencies of feed, crop materials, fuels, and utilities varied, although estimated means were closer to optimal levels.Production Economics,

A probabilistic position value

In this article, we generalize the position value, defined by Meessen (1988) for the class of deterministic communication situations, to the class of generalized probabilistic communication situations (G´omez et al. (2008)). We provide two characterizations of this new allocation rule. Following in Slikker’s (2005a) footsteps, we characterize the probabilistic position value using probabilistic versions of component eciency and balanced link contributions. Then we generalize the notion of link potential, defined by Slikker (2005b) for the class of deterministic communication situations, to the class of generalized probabilistic communication situations, and use it to characterize our allocation rule. Finally, we show that these two characterizations are logically equivalent.Game Theory, TU Games, Graph-restricted Games, Position Value.Game Theory, TU Games, Graph-restricted Games, Position Value.

THE IMPACT OF HIGHER PRICES OF NONFARM-INPUTS TO FOOD PROCESSING AND DISTRIBUTION ON FOOD PRICES AND QUANTITIES

Demand and Price Analysis,