2 research outputs found
Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model
This study employed time series analysis to forecast rainfall data obtained from Anambra State obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Using SPSS's Time Series Expert Modeler, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model was identified as the most suitable for the dataset. The model adequately explained variations in rainfall and passes validation tests, including the Ljung-Box test. A 12–month forecast from September 2023 to August 2024 was conducted, and the results are discussed. While the Time Series Expert Modeler may not always provide optimal models, it proves effective in this analysis. Manual model exploration remains valuable if the automated approach fails to meet criteria
Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model
This study employed time series analysis to forecast rainfall data obtained from Anambra State obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Using SPSS's Time Series Expert Modeler, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model was identified as the most suitable for the dataset. The model adequately explained variations in rainfall and passes validation tests, including the Ljung-Box test. A 12–month forecast from September 2023 to August 2024 was conducted, and the results are discussed. While the Time Series Expert Modeler may not always provide optimal models, it proves effective in this analysis. Manual model exploration remains valuable if the automated approach fails to meet criteria