Obesity as a risk factor for severe influenza-like illness

Background: Obesity was recognized as in independent risk factor for influenza during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Objectives: We evaluated the association between body mass index (BMI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) during two non-pandemic influenza seasons (2003–2004 and 2004–2005) and during the spring and fall waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Methods: Adults with severe (inpatient) and mild (outpatient) ILI were compared to those without ILI using a case-cohort design. The study was nested among those insured by a single health insurance company, receiving care from a large multispecialty practice. Data were collected from insurance claims and the electronic health record. The primary exposure was obesity (BMI ≥ 30·0 kg/m2). Results: Across three seasons, the crude and adjusted ORs for obesity and severe ILI were 1·65 (95% CI 1·31, 2·08) and 1·23 (95% CI 0·97, 1·57), respectively. An association was observed for those aged 20–59 years (adjusted OR 1·92, 95% CI 1·26, 2·90), but not for those 60 and older (adjusted OR 1·08, 95% CI 0·80, 1·46). The adjusted ORs for obesity and severe ILI in 2003–2004, 2004–2005, and during H1N1 were 1·14 (95% CI 0·80, 1·64), 1·24 (95% CI 0·86, 1·79), and 1·76 (95% CI 0·91, 3·42), respectively. Among those with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of zero, the adjusted ORs for 2003–2004, 2004–2005, and H1N1 were 1·60 (95% CI 0·93, 2·76), 1·43 (95% CI 0·80, 2·56), and 1·90 (95% CI 0·68, 5·27), respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest a small to moderate association between obesity and hospitalized ILI among adults

Prenatal influenza exposure and cardiovascular events in adulthood

Objectives: This study examined the association between prenatal exposure to pandemic influenza and cardiovascular events in adulthood. Design: Using Danish surveillance data to identify months when influenza activity was highest during three previous pandemics (1918, 1957, and 1968), persons were defined as exposed/unexposed based on whether they were in utero during peak months of one of the pandemics. Episodes of acute myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke were identified in the Danish National Registry of Patients covering all Danish hospitals since 1977. Setting/Sample Information from Danish national registries on all persons with a Civil Personal Registry number and birthdates in 1915 through 1922, 1954 through 1960, and 1966 through 1972 was collected. Main outcome measures Crude incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated per pandemic. Generalized linear models were fit to estimate IRRs adjusted for sex. Results: For acute MI, sex-adjusted IRRs for persons in utero during peaks of the 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics, compared with those born afterward, were 1·02 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0·99, 1·05), 0·96 (95% CI: 0·87, 1·05), and 1·18 (95% CI: 0·96, 1·45), respectively. For stroke, the corresponding IRRs were 0·99 (95% CI: 0·97, 1·02), 0·99 (95% CI: 0·92, 1·05), and 0·85 (95% CI: 0·77, 0·94), respectively. Conclusions: There was generally no evidence of an association between prenatal influenza exposure and acute MI or stroke in adulthood. However, survivor bias and left truncation of outcomes for the 1918 pandemic are possible, and the current young ages of persons included in the analyses for the 1957 and 1968 pandemics may warrant later re-evaluation

Diagnosed prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias in Medicare Advantage plans

IntroductionOne- third of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA). Yet, little is known about MA beneficiaries diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and AD- related dementias (AD/ADRD).MethodsWe calculated the prevalence of AD/ADRD diagnoses in 2014 and 2016 in three MA plans. We determined the demographic characteristics of beneficiaries diagnosed with AD/ADRD, and whether they disenrolled from the MA plan for any reason within 364 days from the index date.ResultsIn 2014 and 2016, the overall prevalence of AD/ADRD diagnoses was 5.6% and 6.5%, respectively. In 2016, AD/ADRD beneficiaries were on average 82.4 (SD = 7.4) years of age, 61.8% female, and had multiple comorbidities. By 364 days post- index date, 32% of beneficiaries with AD/ADRD had disenrolled from their plan. The demographic characteristics of 2014 beneficiaries with diagnosed AD/ADRD were similar to their 2016 counterparts.DiscussionThe prevalence of AD/ADRD diagnosis in MA is lower than rates reported in Medicare fee- for- service.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156169/2/dad212048.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156169/1/dad212048_am.pd

Influenza and other infections: surveillance and long-term health effects

Thesis (Sc.D.)--Boston University PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at [email protected]. Thank you.Annual influenza epidemics and occasional pandemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality. New surveillance methods are constantly under consideration, though some aspects of influenza natural history and epidemiology are not well understood. While the short-term health consequences of many infectious diseases, including influenza, are well established, the long-term effects are only recently being examined. This dissertation evaluates questions relevant to influenza surveillance and epidemiology, and to the association between prenatal and childhood infections and certain adult health outcomes. The first two studies relate to influenza in Massachusetts. In Study 1, clinical laboratory data were used to estimate the amount of influenza-like illness (ILI) hospital discharges and emergency department (ED) visits associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The percent of ILI associated with influenza and RSV varied by season, from 0.18% to 2.5% and 0.04% to 0.21%, respectively, for discharges and from 1.4% to 2.3% and 0.08% to 0.68%, respectively, for ED visits. Study 2 examined racial/ethnic disparities in ILI hospital visits during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We found that blacks and Hispanics had higher age-adjusted rates of ED visits, observation stays, and discharges compared to whites. Studies 3 and 4 were both set in Denmark. Study 3 evaluated the association between prenatal and childhood hospitalized infections and adult obesity among a cohort of 17,456 male military conscripts. For prenatal and early childhood infections, the adjusted odds ratios were 1.34 (95% CI: 0.82, 2.19) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.44), respectively. Study 4 assessed whether prenatal exposure to the 1918, 1957, or 1968 influenza pandemics was associated with increased rates of acute myocardial infarction or stroke. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between prenatal influenza and the outcomes. In summary, we observed that in Massachusetts, a small proportion of ILI discharges and ED visits are associated with influenza and RSV, and that there were racial/ethnic disparities in H1N1 morbidity in three hospital databases. In Denmark, we found evidence that prenatal and childhood infections are associated with adult obesity, but prenatal influenza exposure does not appear to be associated with cardiovascular events

Real-time surveillance for chronic conditions in Massachusetts using EHR data

ObjectiveTo assess the feasibility of tracking the prevalence of chronicconditions at the state and community level over time using MDPHnet,a distributed network for querying electronic health record systemsIntroductionPublic health agencies and researchers have traditionally reliedon the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) andsimilar tools for surveillance of non-reportable conditions. Thesetools are valuable but the data are delayed by more than a year,limited in scope, and based only on participant self-report. Thesecharacteristics limit the utility of traditional surveillance systems forprogram monitoring and impact assessments. Automated surveillanceusing electronic health record (EHR) data has the potential to increasethe efficiency, breadth, accuracy, and timeliness of surveillance. Wesought to assess the feasibility and utility of public health surveillancefor chronic diseases using EHR data using MDPHnet. MDPHnet isa distributed data network that allows the Massachusetts Departmentof Public Health to query participating practices’ EHR data for thepurposes of public health surveillance (www.esphealth.org). Practicesretain the ability to approve queries on a case-by-case basis and thenetwork is updated daily.MethodsWe queried the quarterly prevalence of pediatric asthma, smoking,type 2 diabetes, obesity, overweight, and hypertension statewideand in 9 Massachusetts communities between January 1, 2012 andJuly 1, 2016. We selected these 9 communities because they wereparticipating in a state-funded initiative to decrease the prevalenceof one or more of these conditions. Conditions were defined usingalgorithms based upon vital signs, diagnosis codes, laboratorymeasures, prescriptions, and self-reported smoking status. Eligiblepatients were those with at least 1 encounter of any kind within the2 years preceding the start of each quarter. Results were adjusted forage, sex, and race / ethnicity using the 2010 Massachusetts censusdata.ResultsSurveillance data were available for 1.2 million people overall,approximately 20% of the state population. Coverage varied bycommunity with >28% coverage for 7 of the communities and11% coverage in the eighth. The ninth community had only 2%coverage and was dropped from further analyses. The race / ethnicitydistribution in MDPHnet data was comparable to census datastatewide and in most communities. Queries for all six conditionssuccessfully executed across the network for all time periods ofinterest. The prevalence of asthma among children under 10 yrs rosefrom 12% in January 2012 to 13% in July 2016. Current smoking inadults age≥20 rose from 14% in 2013 to 16% in 2016 (we excludedresults from 2012 due to changes in documentation propelled by theintroduction of meaningful use criteria). This is comparable to the15% rate of smoking per BRFSS in 20141. Obesity among adultsincreased slightly from 22% to 24% during the study period, resultsnearly identical to the most recent BRFSS results for Massachusetts(23% in 2014 and 24% in 2015)2. The prevalence of each conditionvaried widely across the communities under study. For example, forthe third quarter of 2016, the prevalence of asthma among childrenunder 10 ranged from 5% to 23% depending on the community,the prevalence of smoking among adults ranged from 11% to 35%,and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adults ranged from7% to 14%. We also examined differences in disease estimates byrace / ethnicity. Substantial racial / ethnic differences were evidentfor type 2 diabetes among adults, with whites having the lowestprevalence at 7% and blacks having the highest at 12% in the thirdquarter of 2016; this trend was consistent over the study period.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates that MDPHnet can provide theMassachusetts Department of Public Health with timely population-level estimates of chronic diseases for numerous conditions at boththe state and community level. MDPHnet surveillance providesprevalence estimates that align well with BRFSS and other traditionalsurveillance sources but is able to make surveillance more timelyand more efficient with more geographical specificity compared totraditional surveillance systems. Our ability to generate real-timetime-series data supports the use of MDPHnet as a source for project/program evaluation

In utero exposure to the 1918 pandemic influenza in Denmark and risk of dementia

Background: Substantial but inconclusive evidence suggests in utero exposure to influenza infection may be linked with Alzheimer′s disease. Objectives: We examined whether individuals exposed in utero to the 1918 influenza pandemic are at increased risk of dementia. Patients/Methods In this cohort study, surveillance data were used to identify months when influenza activity was at its peak during the pandemic. Using birth dates, exposed and unexposed individuals were identified based on whether they were in utero during ≥1 of the peak months. The outcome, any type of dementia, was identified in population‐based medical registries. Time and age at risk were restricted so exposed and unexposed had equal time at risk; diagnoses for dementia were assessed between ages 62 and 92, with a maximum of 30 years at risk. Poisson regression was used to estimate sex‐adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Results: We identified 106 479 exposed and 177 918 unexposed persons. Using the cumulative risk function, there were similar proportions of exposed and unexposed with a dementia diagnosis at 11.9% and 11.7%, respectively. Across all ages, the IRR for the association between in utero influenza exposure and any dementia was 1.01 (95% CI 0.99‐1.04); for Alzheimer's disease, it was 0.97 (0.93‐1.01). When stratified by age and sex, and when dementia type was examined, estimates of association were also null or close to null. Conclusions: Our study suggests there is likely not an association between in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic and dementia among those 62 and older

Precision Public Health for Non-communicable Diseases: An Emerging Strategic Roadmap and Multinational Use Cases

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the largest global public health threat. The emerging field of precision public health (PPH) offers a transformative opportunity to capitalize on digital health data to create an agile, responsive and data-driven public health system to actively prevent NCDs. Using learnings from digital health, our aim is to propose a vision toward PPH for NCDs across three horizons of digital health transformation: Horizon 1—digital public health workflows; Horizon 2—population health data and analytics; Horizon 3—precision public health. This perspective provides a high-level strategic roadmap for public health practitioners and policymakers, health system stakeholders and researchers to achieving PPH for NCDs. Two multinational use cases are presented to contextualize our roadmap in pragmatic action: ESP and RiskScape (USA), a mature PPH platform for multiple NCDs, and PopHQ (Australia), a proof-of-concept population health informatics tool to monitor and prevent obesity. Our intent is to provide a strategic foundation to guide new health policy, investment and research in the rapidly emerging but nascent area of PPH to reduce the public health burden of NCDs