Market Conditions and Retirement of Physical Capital: Evidence fron Oil Tankers

The endogeneity of capital retirements is studied for the particular case of oil tankers from 1979--1989. A model is estimated to examine the effect of changes in market conditions on the price and scrappage of tankers. Energy price rises had a major impact on the value of ships and on which ships were scrapped. A simple model is able to account for many features of the market. We use the information implicit in second-hand prices to ease the computational burden for the model that is estimated.

Generics and New Goods in Pharmaceutical Price Indexes

We examine the issue of new goods and price indexes for the important and tractable case of generic and branded drugs. By treating generics as entirely distinct goods and "linking them in" to indexes with fixed weights, the standard price indexes fail to reflect the substantial welfare gains to those consumers who, like the FDA, regard generic and branded versions of a drug as being perfect substitutes. We discuss the treatment of heterogenous consumers in constructing aggregate price indexes, and then, using detailed data on wholesale prices of two anti-infective drugs, present calculations of various alternatives to the official indexes. These reflect both heterogeneity of tastes for brandedness, and also the empirically important phenomenon of diffusion of generic drugs into the market following patent expiration. We find very significant differences: for one of the drugs studied, the standard price index rose by 14% over the sample period, while our preferred alternative index fell by 48%.

Public-Private Interaction and the Productivity of Pharmaceutical Research

We examine the impact of publicly funded biomedical research on the in-house research of the for-profit pharmaceutical industry. Qualitative analysis of the history of the discovery and development of a sample of 21 significant drugs, and a program of interviews with senior managers and scientists reveals a complex and often bidirectional relationship between the public and private sectors of the industry, illustrating the difficulties inherent in estimating the rate of return to public support of basic research. This analysis also highlights the importance for private sector firms of maintaining close connections to the upstream' scientific community, which requires them to make significant investments in doing in-house basic research and adopting appropriate internal incentives and procedures. We measure the extent and nature of this connectedness' using data on coauthorship of scientific papers between pharmaceutical company scientists and publicly funded researchers. These measures are significantly correlated with firms' internal organization, as well as their research performance in drug discovery as measured by important patents per research dollar. The size of the estimated impact of connectedness' to private research productivity implies a substantial return to public investments in basic research.

University Research, Industrial R&D, and the Anchor Tenant Hypothesis

We examine geographic concentration, agglomeration, and co-location of university research and industrial R&D in three technological areas: medical imaging, neural networks, and signal processing. Using data on scientific publications and patents as indicators of university research and industrial R&D, we find strong evidence of geographic concentration in both activities at the level of MSAs. While evidence for agglomeration (in the sense of excess' concentration relative to the size of MSAs and the size distribution of research labs) of research in these fields is mixed, we do find strong evidence of co-location of upstream and downstream activity. We view such co-located vertically connected activities as constituents of a local innovation system,' and these appear to vary markedly in their ability to convert local academic research into local commercial innovation. We develop and test the hypothesis that the presence of a large, local, R&D-intensive firm an anchor tenant' enhances the productivity of local innovation systems by making local university research more likely to be absorbed by and to stimulate local industrial R&D. Presence of anchor tenant firms may be an important factor in stimulating both the demand and supply sides of local markets for innovation and may be an important channel for transmission of spillovers. While our empirical results are preliminary, they indicate that anchor tenant technology firms may be an economically important aspect of the institutional structure of local economies.

Patents and the Survival of Internet-related IPOs

We examine the effect of patenting on the survival prospects of 356 internet-related firms that IPO'd at the height of the stock market bubble of the late 1990s. By March 2005, nearly 2/3 of these firms had delisted from the NASDAQ exchange. Although changes in the legal environment in the US in the 1990s made it much easier to obtain patents on software and, ultimately, on business methods, less than half of the firms in this sample obtained, or attempted to obtain, patents. For those that did, we hypothesize that patents conferred competitive advantages that translate into higher probability of survival, though they may also simply be a signal of firm quality. Controlling for age, venture-capital backing, financial characteristics, and stock market conditions, patenting is positively associated with survival. Quite different processes appear to govern exit via acquisition compared to exit via delisting from the exchange due to business failure. Firms that applied for more patents were less likely to be acquired, though obtaining unusually highly cited patents may make them more attractive acquisition target. These findings do not hold for business method patents, which do not appear to confer a survival advantage.

Patents, Thickets, and the Financing of Early-Stage Firms: Evidence from the Software Industry

The impact of stronger intellectual property rights in the software industry is controversial. One means by which patents can affect technical change, industry dynamics, and ultimately welfare, is through their role in stimulating or stifling entry by new ventures. Patents can block entry, or raise entrants' costs in variety of ways, while at the same time they may stimulate entry by improving the bargaining position of entrants vis-à-vis incumbents, and supporting a "market for technology" which enables new ventures to license their way into the market, or realize value through trade in their intangible assets. One important impact of patents may be their influence on capital markets, and here we find evidence that the extraordinary growth in patenting of software during the 1990s is associated with significant effects on the financing of software companies. Start-up software companies operating in markets characterized by denser patent thickets see their initial acquisition of VC funding delayed relative to firms in markets less affected by patents. The relationship between patents and the probability of IPO or acquisition is more complex, but there is some evidence that firms without patents are less likely to go public if they operate in a market characterized by patent thickets.

Balancing Incentives: The Tension Between Basic and Applied Research

This paper presents empirical evidence that the intensity of research workers' incentives for the distinct tasks of basic and applied research are positively associated with each other. We relate this finding to the prediction of the theoretical literature that when effort is multi-dimensional, firms will balance' the provision of incentives; when incentives are strong along one dimension, firms will set high-powered incentives for effort along other dimensions which compete for the worker's effort and attention (Holmstrom and Milgrom, 1991). We test for this effect in the context of pharmaceutical research using detailed data on individual research programs financed by private firms. Consistent with the complementarity hypothesis, we find strong evidence that firms who provide strong promotion-based incentives for individuals to invest in fundamental or basic' research also provide more intense incentives for success in applied research through the capital budgeting process. The intensity of these bonus' incentives is weaker in firms who use a more centralized research budgeting process. We interpret this latter finding as providing support for theories which emphasize substitutability between contractible and non-contractible signals of effort (Baker, Gibbons, and Murphy, 1994).