Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065

The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by ∼3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward. We used simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to study how predicted changes in the magnetic field will affect the climate of the thermosphere-ionosphere system from 2015 to 2065. The global mean neutral density in the thermosphere is expected to increase slightly, by up to 1% on average or up to 2% during geomagnetically disturbed conditions (Kp ≥ 4). This is due to an increase in Joule heating power, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean changes in total electron content (TEC) range from −3% to +4%, depending on season and UT. However, regional changes can be much larger, up to about ±35% in the region of ∼45◦S to 45◦N and 110◦W to 0◦Wduring daytime. Changes in the vertical ⃗E × ⃗B drift are the most important driver of changes in TEC, although other plasma transport processes also play a role. A reduction in the low-latitude upward ⃗E × ⃗B drift weakens the equatorial ionization anomaly in the longitude sector of ∼105–60◦W, manifesting itself as a local increase in electron density over Jicamarca (12.0◦S, 76.9◦W). The predicted increase in neutral density associated with main magnetic field changes is very small compared to observed trends and other trend drivers, but the predicted changes in TEC could make a significant contribution to observationally detectable trends

A realistic projection of climate change in the upper atmosphere into the 21st century

Climate change in the upper atmosphere (∼90 − 500 km altitude) has important impacts on practical applications. To prepare for these, realistic projections of future climate change are needed. The first climate projection up to 500 km altitude is presented here based on a long transient simulation with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension, following Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2-4.5, a moderate emission scenario. Effects of predicted main magnetic field changes and reasonable solar radiative and particle forcings are also included. The predicted global mean cooling in the thermosphere and associated decline in thermosphere density for 2015-2070 are significantly stronger than for the historical period, which is ascribed to the more rapid increase in CO2 concentration. Trends in global mean ionospheric parameters also increase in magnitude, but there are considerable spatial variations, caused by changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. The largest ionospheric changes are expected in the region of ∼50°S-20°N, ∼90-0°W

The response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to the August 21, 2017 solar eclipse

We simulated the effects of the 21 August 2017 total solar eclipse on the ionosphere‐thermosphere system with the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). The simulations demonstrate that the horizontal neutral wind modifies the eclipse‐induced reduction in total electron content (TEC), spreading it equatorward and westward of the eclipse path. The neutral wind also affects the neutral temperature and mass density responses through advection and the vertical wind modifies them further through adiabatic heating/cooling and compositional changes. The neutral temperature response lags behind totality by about 35 min, indicating an imbalance between heating and cooling processes during the eclipse, while the ion and electron temperature responses have almost no lag, indicating they are in quasi steady state. Simulated ion temperature and vertical drift responses are weaker than observed by the Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radar, while simulated reductions in electron density and temperature are stronger. The model misses the observed posteclipse enhancement in electron density, which could be due to the lack of a plasmasphere in GITM. The simulated TEC response appears too weak compared to Global Positioning System TEC measurements, but this might be because the model does not include electron content above 550‐km altitude. The simulated response in the neutral wind after the eclipse is too weak compared to Fabry Perot interferometer observations in Cariri, Brazil, which suggests that GITM recovers too quickly after the eclipse. This could be related to GITM heating processes being too strong and electron densities being too high at low latitudes

A year long comparison of GPS TEC and global ionosphere-thermosphere models

The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere‐thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year‐long data‐model comparison using the Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE‐GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts

Setting the stage for individualized therapy in hemophilia: what role can pharmacokinetics play?

Replacement therapy with clotting factor concentrates (CFC) is the mainstay of treatment in hemophilia. Its widespread application has led to a dramatic decrease in morbidity and mortality in patients, with concomitant improvement of quality of life. However, dosing is challenging and costs are high. This review discusses benefits and limitations of pharmacokinetic (PK)-guided dosing of replacement therapy as an alternative for current dosing regimens. Dosing of CFC is now primarily based on body weight and based on its in vivo recovery (IVR). Benefits of PK-guided dosing include individualization of treatment with better targeting, more flexible blood sampling, increased insight into association of coagulation factor levels and bleeding, and potential overall lowering of overall costs. Limitations include a slight burden for the patient, and availability of closely collaborating, experienced clinical pharmacologists

Analysis and attribution of climate change in the upper atmosphere from 1950 to 2015 simulated by WACCM-X

Monitoring climatic changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere and understanding their causes is important for practical purposes. To support this effort and facilitate comparisons between observations and model results, a long transient simulation with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension (WACCM‐X) from 1950 to 2015 was conducted. This simulation used realistic variations in solar and geomagnetic activity, main magnetic field changes, and trace gas emissions, including CO2, thereby including all known drivers of upper atmosphere climate change. Analysis of the full 1950‐2015 interval with a standard multi‐linear regression approach demonstrated difficulties in removing solar cycle effects sufficiently to obtain reliable trends. Results improved when an (F10.7a)2 was included in the regression model, in addition to terms for F10.7a, KP, and the trend itself. Comparisons with previous studies and analysis of spatial variations in trend estimates confirmed that the increase in CO2 concentration is the main driver of trends in thermosphere temperature and density, but at high (magnetic) latitudes effects of main magnetic field changes play a role as well, especially in the Northern hemisphere. Spatial patterns of trends in hmF2, NmF2, and total electron content indicate a superposition of CO2 and geomagnetic field effects, with the latter dominating trends in the region of ~50°S‐20°N, ~60°W‐20°E. Additional model experiments to investigate the indirect dynamical effects of climate change in the lower atmosphere (100 km) suggested that these effects are small and insignificant. However, current model limitations could mean that these effects are underestimated

Mental rotation ability predicts the acquisition of basic endovascular skills

Abstract Due to the increasing complexity of diseases in the aging population and rapid progress in catheter-based technology, the demands on operators’ skills in conducting endovascular interventions (EI) has increased dramatically, putting more emphasis on training. However, it is not well understood which factors influence learning and performance. In the present study, we examined the ability of EI naïve medical students to acquire basic catheter skills and the role of pre-existing cognitive ability and manual dexterity in predicting performance. Nineteen medical students practised an internal carotid artery angiography during a three-day training on an endovascular simulator. Prior to the training they completed a battery of tests. Skill acquisition was assessed using quantitative and clinical performance measures; the outcome measures from the test battery were used to predict the learning rate. The quantitative metrics indicated that participants’ performance improved significantly across the training, but the clinical evaluation revealed that participants did not significantly improve on the more complex part of the procedure. Mental rotation ability (MRA) predicted quantitative, but not clinical performance. We suggest that MRA tests in combination with simulator sessions could be used to assess the trainee’s early competence level and tailor the training to individual needs

Future Climate Change in the Thermosphere Under Varying Solar Activity Conditions

Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are increasing radiative cooling in the upper atmosphere, leading to thermospheric contraction and decreased neutral mass densities at fixed altitudes. Previous studies of the historic neutral density trend have shown a dependence upon solar activity, with larger F10.7 values resulting in lower neutral density reductions. To investigate the impact on the future thermosphere, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with ionosphere and thermosphere extension has been used to simulate the thermosphere under increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and varying solar activity conditions. These neutral density reductions have then been mapped onto the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The neutral density reductions can also be used as a scaling factor, allowing commonly used empirical models to account for CO2 trends. Under the “best case” SSP1-2.6 scenario, neutral densities reductions at 400 km altitude peak (when CO2 = 474 ppm) at a reduction of 13%–30% (under high and low solar activity respectively) compared to the year 2000. Higher CO2 concentrations lead to greater density reductions, with the largest modeled concentration of 890 ppm resulting in a 50%–77% reduction at 400 km, under high and low solar activity respectively

A scenario of planet erosion by coronal radiation

Context: According to theory, high-energy emission from the coronae of cool stars can severely erode the atmospheres of orbiting planets. No observational tests of the long term effects of erosion have yet been made. Aims: To analyze the current distribution of planetary mass with X-ray irradiation of the atmospheres in order to make an observational assessment of the effects of erosion by coronal radiation. Methods: We study a large sample of planet-hosting stars with XMM-Newton, Chandra and ROSAT; make a careful identification of X-ray counterparts; and fit their spectra to make accurately measurements of the stellar X-ray flux. Results: The distribution of the planetary masses with X-ray flux suggests that erosion has taken place: most surviving massive planets, (M_p sin i >1.5 M_J), have been exposed to lower accumulated irradiation. Heavy erosion during the initial stages of stellar evolution is followed by a phase of much weaker erosion. A line dividing these two phases could be present, showing a strong dependence on planet mass. Although a larger sample will be required to establish a well-defined erosion line, the distribution found is very suggestive. Conclusions: The distribution of planetary mass with X-ray flux is consistent with a scenario in which planet atmospheres have suffered the effects of erosion by coronal X-ray and EUV emission. The erosion line is an observational constraint to models of atmospheric erosion.Comment: A&A 511, L8 (2010). 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 online table (included). Language edited; corrected a wrong unit conversion (g/s -> M_J/Gyr); corrected values in column 12 of Table 1 (slightly underestimated in first version), and Figure 2 updated accordingl