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Observational Evidence from Supernovae for an Accelerating Universe and a Cosmological Constant
We present observations of 10 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) between 0.16 < z <
0.62. With previous data from our High-Z Supernova Search Team, this expanded
set of 16 high-redshift supernovae and 34 nearby supernovae are used to place
constraints on the Hubble constant (H_0), the mass density (Omega_M), the
cosmological constant (Omega_Lambda), the deceleration parameter (q_0), and the
dynamical age of the Universe (t_0). The distances of the high-redshift SNe Ia
are, on average, 10% to 15% farther than expected in a low mass density
(Omega_M=0.2) Universe without a cosmological constant. Different light curve
fitting methods, SN Ia subsamples, and prior constraints unanimously favor
eternally expanding models with positive cosmological constant (i.e.,
Omega_Lambda > 0) and a current acceleration of the expansion (i.e., q_0 < 0).
With no prior constraint on mass density other than Omega_M > 0, the
spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia are consistent with q_0 <0 at the 2.8 sigma
and 3.9 sigma confidence levels, and with Omega_Lambda >0 at the 3.0 sigma and
4.0 sigma confidence levels, for two fitting methods respectively. Fixing a
``minimal'' mass density, Omega_M=0.2, results in the weakest detection,
Omega_Lambda>0 at the 3.0 sigma confidence level. For a flat-Universe prior
(Omega_M+Omega_Lambda=1), the spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia require
Omega_Lambda >0 at 7 sigma and 9 sigma level for the two fitting methods. A
Universe closed by ordinary matter (i.e., Omega_M=1) is ruled out at the 7
sigma to 8 sigma level. We estimate the size of systematic errors, including
evolution, extinction, sample selection bias, local flows, gravitational
lensing, and sample contamination. Presently, none of these effects reconciles
the data with Omega_Lambda=0 and q_0 > 0.Comment: 36 pages, 13 figures, 3 table files Accepted to the Astronomical
Journa