What are we learning about the long-run?

An attempt is made to link together earlier definitions of the long-run found in micro and macro economics with recent developments in econometrics; specifically cointegration. It is suggested that the links are not strong and that most of the previous work in econometric theory has been unnecessarily over-precise. Unit root processes can be replaced by processes that approximate them without loss of interpretation. The possibility of embedding cointegration theory into a very general non linear theory is suggested. An example uses a nonIinear relationship between UK short and long run interest rate proposed by Frank Paish

Infra-red spectra of chemisorbed species

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What are we learning about the long-run?.

An attempt is made to link together earlier definitions of the long-run found in micro and macro economics with recent developments in econometrics; specifically cointegration. It is suggested that the links are not strong and that most of the previous work in econometric theory has been unnecessarily over-precise. Unit root processes can be replaced by processes that approximate them without loss of interpretation. The possibility of embedding cointegration theory into a very general non linear theory is suggested. An example uses a nonIinear relationship between UK short and long run interest rate proposed by Frank Paish.The long-run in microeconomics; The long-run in macroeconomics; Cointegration; Approximating unit roots; Cointegration in nonlinear models;

Investigating the relationship between gold and silver prices

This paper analyze the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. The three main questions addressed are: the influence of a large bubble from 1979:9 to 1980:3 on the cointegration relationship, the extent to which by including error correction terms in a nonlinear way we can beat the random walk model out-of sample and, the existence of a strong simultaneous relationship between the rates of return of gold and silver. Different efficient single equation estimation techniques are required for each of the three questions and this is explained within a simple bivariante cointegration system. With monthly data from 1971 to 1990, it is found that cointegration could have occurred during some periods and specially during the bubble and post-bubble periodo However, dummy variables for the intercept of the long-ron relationships are needed during the full sample. For the price of gold the nonlinear models perform better than the random walk in-sample and out-of-sample. In-sample nonlinear models for the price of silver perform better than the random walk but this predictive capacity is lost out-of sample, mainly due to the structural change that occurs (reduction) in the variance of the out-of sample models. The in-sample and out-of sample predictive capacity of the nonlinear models is reduced when the variables are in logs. Clear and strong evidence is found for a simultaneous relationship between the rates of return of gold and silver. In the three type of relationships that we have analyzed between the prices of gold and silver, the dependence is less out-of sample, possibly meaning that the two markets are becoming separated

Quarry fines minimisation : can we really have 10mm aggregate with no fines?

In 2005, 216 million tonnes of saleable aggregate was produced in the UK; a corresponding 55 million tonnes of quarry fines and 24 million tonnes of quarry waste were also produced. The need to minimise fines production is driven by the Aggregates Levy (which has priced quarry fines out of the market in favour of recycled aggregate) and the Landfill Tax (which has made it expensive to dispose of fines). Attempts to reduce fines production often start with a process optimisation audit; the case study presented illustrates how fines production can be reduced, in this instance by up to 30%. Application of good practice in the crushing plant also helps to reduce fines production, including: reducing the crushing ratio to 6:1 or lower; maintaining uniform feed distribution; choke feeding (for compression crushers); reducing the speed of impact crushers; and reducing the degree of recirculation by increased screening efficiency. Future developments are likely to be driven by the need to respond to climate change. New crusher designs will be more automated, offer improved energy efficiency, have a greater production capacity and improved reliability

Unions, Training, and Firm Performance

The present paper uses a combination of workplace and linked employee-workplace data from the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey and the 2004 Workplace Employment Relations Survey to examine the impact of unions on training incidence, training intensity/coverage, and training duration. It also examines the impact of unions and training on earnings and a measure of establishment labour productivity. In addition, the implications of training for the firm’s bottom line are evaluated. Union effects on training emerge as fairly subtle, and are more positive when using individual rather than plant-wide training data. A positive impact of training on earnings is detected in both the individual and plant-wide wage data, albeit only for the earlier survey. Consistent with other recent findings, the effects of union recognition on earnings are today rather muted, while union-training interaction effects vary greatly. Instrumenting training provides positive results for the labour productivity outcome and, in the case of the earlier survey, for the financial performance indicator as well. However, some negative effects of unions are now also detected.earnings, training duration, training intensity/coverage, training Incidence, employer-provided training, bargaining structure, union recognition, financial performance, labour productivity

Reforming pensions in Zambia : an analysis of existing schemes and options for reform

All of Zambia's pension schemes are deficient in design, financing, and administration. This report urges that Zambia restructure its social protection system to complement its new economic strategy. That restructuring must address such basic problems as macroeconomic fluctuations and an unstable financial sector; high inflation rates and politically-motivated low-yield investments and loans; income ceilings irregularly adjusted for inflation; overgenerous public sector pension benefits; and inadequate management of pension fund operations. In the short and medium term, the objectives should be to settle outstanding pension claims, revise early retirement provisions and investment policies, and improve capabilities for administering statutory pension funds. In the long term the objectives should be to convert the Zambia National Provident Fund (ZNPF) into a modest basic pension scheme for private sector employees, and subsequently integrate civil servants and public sector employees into that scheme; establish regulatory provisions to develop and supervise private pension funds; and establish an administrative mechanism to review social protection policy and to supervise and coordinate its application by all agencies.Public Health Promotion,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,National Governance

Unions, training and firm performance

"This paper uses data from two British workplace surveys to examine the impact of unions on several training measures. It also evaluates the impact of unions and training on earnings and two measures of firm performance. Union effects on training emerge as fairly subtle, and are more positive when using individual rather than plant-wide training data. A positive impact of training on earnings is detected in individual and plant-wide wage data, albeit for one of the datasets. Union influence on wages is also muted and union-training interaction effects vary greatly. However, instrumenting training provides positive results for labour productivity and, again for one survey, for financial performance as well." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Kurzfassung (deutsch) Executive summary (English)betriebliche Weiterbildung, Gewerkschaftspolitik - Auswirkungen, Lohnhöhe, Unternehmenserfolg, Großbritannien

Rural livelihoods and community-based aglime production

The presentation 'Rural livelihoods and community-based aglime production' was a summary of the research caried out into the small-scale production of agricultural lime using appropriate technology. This research was carried out by the British Geological Survey in collaboration with the Zambian Geological Survey Department and the University of Zambia