Unconventional monetary policy expansion: the economic impact through a dynamic CGE model

The ongoing economic stagnation and low inflation rates affecting EU have refuelled the debate on the role and the limits of monetary policy in pushing the economic growth. Given the tight margins for fiscal policy for EU state members, traditional and unconventional monetary policies are becoming more looked-for to break out of this condition. However, the main issue on whether the real or nominal aspects prevails still remains. In this situation, a framework able to identify and analyse any interaction between economic and financial flows becomes crucial to detect the dynamics pushing towards expansions or contractions resulting from monetary policies. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the direct and indirect impact of monetary policies implemented by the European Central Bank on the main Italian macroeconomic variables both in aggregate and disaggregate terms. For this purpose we use Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated on the financial Social Accounting Matrix for Italian economy

A QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION of INDUSTRIA 4.0 through SIMULATION of QUEST III ITALIA

This paper provides a quantitative macroeconomic evaluation of the national INDUSTRIA 4.0 plan, the set of Industry 4.0 policy measures implemented by the Italian government. The evaluation is performed using the European Commission’s endogenous growth model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy. Innovation of process- and skill-biased technical change characterizes the fourth industrial revolution and determines human capital formation and the spillover of knowledge accumulation. A set of model parameters and variants has been determined, and four policy scenarios are taken into account under two denominations: Innovative Investments and Skill Achievements. The Italian economy persists in its path of around zero growth, on which it has been for a while. The main results highlight a decade of weak growth, without strong innovation policy interventions, and a low profile and precarious outcomes on the labour side

The long way to crisis: Socioeconomic dynamics vis à vis urbanization and environmental change in mediterranean Europe

This book deals with the Functional Urban Areas (FUAs), classified by OECD following a multi-scale perspective. Information on FUAs is retrieved in the OECD Metropolitan Database which includes several economic, environmental, social, and demographical designed indicators on the 668 metropolitan areas. The focus on FUAs allows, on one hand the in-depth study of territorial units. On the other side, it also remarks the relationship between the socio-demographic, economic and territorial background dynamics through indicators of economic development. Within this context, a remarkable case study is provided by the Mediterranean countries, such as Italy and Greece, analysed at a highly disaggregate spatial level

Skill biased technological change and process innovation in QUEST III with R&D: Policy Simulations for "Industria 4.0"

Nella tesi si vogliono quantificare gli effetti dei provvedimenti governativi che vanno sotto il nome di “Piano Nazionale Industria 4.0:Acquisizione di Competenze e Investimenti Innovativi” sulla crescita economica attraverso la simulazione degli scenari di politica sul modello QUEST III-Italia modificato con la introduzione di equazioni che consentano di trattare il fenomeno dello “Skilled Biased Technical Change” (SBTC) e “innovazione di processo.” Il primo obiettivo viene raggiunto endogenizzando le quote di lavoratori occupati. La relazione ipotizzata è tale per cui la quota dei superstar workers e la quota dei non routinized skilled workers dipenda con una relazione logistica, e quindi crescente, dalle nuove idee. Al contrario, i routinized skilled workers costituiranno la categoria residuale e che quindi diminuisce all’aumentare delle nuove tecnologie. Questa categoria residuale è stata introdotta al fine di modellare la sostituibilità tra routinized skilled workers e tecnologie. Il secondo obiettivo viene raggiunto modellizzando la produttività del capitale fisico legata agli spillover delle nuove idee. La quota di nuove idee non coperta da brevetto, porta, attraverso gli spillover, ad una produttività totale del capitale fisico, maggiore del costo di acquisto del capitale fisico stesso. Tale produttività, influenza gli investimenti nell’equazione di accumulazione del capitale fisico, facendo sì che il valore del capitale fisico sia maggiore del suo costo d’acquisto. I principali risultati tratteggiano un contesto economico italiano di crescita seppur non sostenuta, e tale da allontanare l’Italia dal rischio di crescita zero. Il processo di crescita endogena esplica interamente il suo effetto solo nel lungo periodo, quando il capitale umano ha completato l’intero processo di formazione ed è effettivamente allocato nel settore di R&D e quando tutti gli effetti delle riforme governative hanno trovato attuazione. Dal lato dell’occupazione la crescita economica è frenata principalmente dalla mancanza di infrastrutture tali da sostenere il processo di formazione dei lavoratori previsto dal piano. Le nuove tecnologie non trovano terreno fertile dal lato delle competenze, e dal lato delle infrastrutture, con il risultato che questo potenziamento delle competenze porta solo nel lunghissimo periodo ad un aumento dell’occupazione altamente qualificata. Nel breve periodo le nuove tecnologie portano un insieme limitato di lavori low skilled complementari ad esse, che induce un aumento dell’occupazione low skilled, che decrementa a sua volta man mano che queste mansioni vengono automatizzate.Abstract In this thesis, an attempt is made to evaluate the effects on growth of the National Plan Industria 4.0, the government set of policy measures articulated in two main policy frames known as Skill Achievements and Innovative Investments. The quantitative evaluation is performed through the simulation of policy scenarios within a modified version of the model QUEST III-Italy. Model changes have been implemented for enabling a more satisfactory treatment of the “Skill Biased Technical Change” (SBTC) and “Process Innovation”. The first aim is reached through the endogenization of the skill-shares of employed workers. In the relationship introduced the production of new ideas influences the share of superstar workers and the share of non-routinized skilled workers according a logistic relationship; while routinized skilled workers are allocated in a residual category that reduces as new technologies increase. This mechanism allows for the consideration of the substitutability between routinized skilled workers and technologies. The second aim has been reached modeling the spillover of the physical capital productivity. The share of new ideas not covered by patents is not included in the acquisition cost of physical capital, but provides, through spillovers, a total physical capital productivity higher than the acquisition cost of physical capital itself. This productivity affects investment in the physical capital accumulation equation, making the value of physical capital higher than its acquisition cost. The main results put in evidence a positive trend for the Italian economy so to move Italy out of the zero growth threat. The endogenous growth process entirely explicates its effect only in the long run when human capital has completed the education process and is really effective in R&D sector and when all the effects of government measures have been put in operation. From the employment point of view economic growth is reduced mainly by the lack of infrastructures to support the workers education process forecasted by the plan. New technologies can find their way both through the skills and through the infrastructures, with the result that this empowerment of skills leads to an increase in high skilled workers only in the very long run. In the short run new technologies will bring a limited set of other low skilled jobs, complementary to them, which induce to an increase in low skilled employment, which decreases when these skills will be digitalized

The Future Paths of Urbanization: A Brief Review

Nowadays, the traditional, established idea of inclusivity and equality of the so called “European City” has been threatened by an increasingly faster urbanization process. The present urban sprawl follows a fragmented and unbalanced development path. This fragmentation is likely to produce severe consequences in the socioeconomic sphere of individuals, leading, in particular, to income inequalities. Within this context, the work provides a theoretical framework aimed at analysing the present urban expansion paths. The contribution is addressed to policy makers aimed at providing indications to design effective socio-territorial policies to enhance the quality and equity of future urbanization in metropolitan areas throughout the world

A market sentiment indicator, behaviourally grounded, for the analysis and forecast of volatility and bubbles

Purpose This work aims at designing an indicator for detecting and forecasting price volatility and speculative bubbles in three markets dealing with agricultural and soft commodities, i.e. Intercontinental Exchange Futures market Europe, (IFEU), Intercontinental Exchange Futures market United States (IFUS) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This indicator, designed as a demand/supply odds ratio, intends to overcome the subjectivity limits embedded in sentiment indexes as the Bull and Bears ratio by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Design/methodology/approach Data evidence allows for the parameter estimation of a Jacobi diffusion process that models the demand share and leads the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility. Validation of outcomes is obtained through the dynamic regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) error. Results are discussed in comparison with those from the traditional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The database is retrieved from Thomson Reuters DataStream (nearby futures daily frequency). Findings The empirical analysis shows that the indicator succeeds in capturing the trend of the observed volatility in the future at medium and long-time horizons. A comparison of simulations results with those obtained with the traditional GARCH models, usually adopted in forecasting the volatility trend, confirms that the indicator is able to replicate the trend also providing turning points, i.e. additional information completely neglected by the GARCH analysis. Originality/value The authors' commodity demand as discrete-time process is capable of replicating the observed trend in a continuous-time framework, as well as turning points. This process is suited for estimating behavioural parameters of the agents, i.e. long-term mean, speed of mean reversion and herding behaviour. These parameters are used in the forecast of speculative bubbles and realised volatility

The Marche region and its industry pattern: a quantitative evaluation

The “Marche model” is the term used to define the industry structure of the Marche region, i.e. small- medium sized firms settled in coasts and valleys and organized in small districts. By means of Flegg Location Quotients, we regionalize the national Input – Output Table (NIOT) and obtain the Regional Table (RIOT). Through the linkage analysis we compare the relevance of the industrial pattern at a regional and national level. Manufacturing reveals as the key sector both at national and regional level. It has to be noted that the same industry results even more performing at the regional level

Sprawlscapes. Landscape transformation in periurban areas and the inherent rule of regional landscape planning: The case for metropolitan Barcelona, Spain

Based on a comprehensive database of town master plans and ancillary socioeconomic indicators of metropolitan development in Barcelona, a homogeneous classification of planned land-use was proposed with the objective to predict spatial directions and intensity in the expansion of built-up settlements. The spatial distribution of buildable land at the municipal scale revealed useful to assess the directions where cities will expand, in accordance with specific urbanization drivers. Our results shed light on short-term urban growth patterns and processes in a Mediterranean city emphasizing the progressive shift towards dispersed settlements that are going to replace the compact urbanization model observed since the 1980s. The planned expansion of urban settlements has contributed partly to a balanced and polycentric regional structure. Use of specific land-use indicators derived from local scale planning regulations and prescriptions for the assessment of future urbanization scenarios in Southern Europe was finally discussed