Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?

Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the 'great ratios' of consumption to output and investment to output should be stationary. The joint behaviour of consumption, investment and output can then be used to measure trend output. We adopt this approach for the USA and UK, and find support for stationarity of the great ratios when structural breaks are taken into account. From the estimated vector error correction models, we extract multivariate estimates of the permanent component in output, and comment on trend growth in the 1980s and the New Economy boom of the 1990s.Trend output, great ratios, structural breaks, permanent components, New Economy

Intrahousehold Resource Allocation in Rural Pakistan: A Semi-parametric Analysis

We estimate semiparametric Engel curves for rural Pakistan using a large household survey. This allows us to obtain consistent estimates of the effects of household size and composition on consumption patterns even when these demographic variables are correlated with an unknown function of income. The coefficients on the household composition variables are used to infer patterns of intrahousehold allocation. While there is little evidence of gender bias amongst children, adult males appear to get more than adult females. There is a tendency amongst males for workers to get more than dependents. There is no evidence of differential treatment of the elderly and higher birth-order children. We identify substantial economies of size in food consumption. We also find that Engel curces for food, adult goods and child goods are nonlinear, which suggests that the PIGLOG class of demand models in inappropriate.Semiparametric estimation, intrahousehold resource allocation, gender bias, Engel curves.

Intrahousehold resource allocation in rural Pakistan: a semi-parametric analysis

We estimate semiparametric Engel curves for rural Pakistan using a large household survey. This allows us to obtain consistent estimates of the effects of household size and composition on consumption patterns even when these demographic variables are correlated with an unknown function of income. The coefficients on the household composition variables are used to infer patterns of intrahousehold allocation. While there is little evidence of gender bias amongst children, adult males appear to get more than adult females. There is a tendency amongst males for workers to get more than dependents. There is no evidence of differential treatment of the elderly and higher birth-order children. We identify substantial economies of size in food consumption. We also find that Engel curces for food, adult goods and child goods are nonlinear, which suggests that the PIGLOG class of demand models in inappropriate

Volatility Implied by Option Prices: The Case of Takeover Bids

We model the effect of an impending share price jump on the implied standard deviation (ISD) of a company's options, testing the model by investigating its predictive ability for ISDs of companies subject to a takeover bid. Our model fits the observed ISDs well for all but certain deep in-the-money options. However, the model demonstrates that a discontinuity in the relationship between moneyness and the ISD both explains the combination of high and zero ISDs exhibited by these options, and impairs the predictive power of the model at these levels of moneyness. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.

Intrahousehold Resource Allocation in Rural Pakistan: A Semi-parametric Analysis

We estimate semiparametric Engel curves for rural Pakistan using a large household survey. This allows us to obtain consistent estimates of the effects of household size and composition on consumption patterns even when these demographic variables are correlated with an unknown function of income. The coefficients on the household composition variables are used to infer patterns of intrahousehold allocation. While there is little evidence of gender bias amongst children, adult males appear to get more than adult females. There is a tendency amongst males for workers to get more than dependents. There is no evidence of differential treatment of the elderly and higher birth-order children. We identify substantial economies of size in food consumption. We also find that Engel curces for food, adult goods and child goods are nonlinear, which suggests that the PIGLOG class of demand models in inappropriate

Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK

Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the 'great ratios' of consumption to output and investment to output should be stable functions of structural parameters. We examine whether the ratios are stationary for the US and UK, allowing for structural breaks that could reflect time-varying parameters. We find stronger evidence for stationarity than previous work. We then use the long-run restrictions associated with the stationarity of the great ratios to extract measures of trend output from the joint behavior of consumption, investment and output. This approach is attractive because it uses information from several series without requiring restrictive assumptions.Great ratios Structural breaks Permanent components Trend output