Risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism

Research on terrorism is increasingly empirical and a number of significant advancements have been made. One such evolution is the emergent understanding of risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism. Beyond contributing to academic knowledge, this has important real-world implications. Notably, the development of terrorism risk assessment tools, as well as behavioural threat assessment in counterterrorism. This thesis makes a unique contribution to the literature in two key ways. First, there is a general consensus that no single, stable profile of a terrorist exists. Relying on profiles of static risk factors to inform judgements of risk and/or threat may therefore be problematic, particularly given the observed multi- and equi-finality. One way forward may be to identify configurations of risk factors and tie these to the theorised causal mechanisms they speak to. Second, there has been little attempt to measure the prevalence of potential risk factors for violent extremism in a general population, i.e. base rates. Establishing general population base rates will help develop more scientifically rigorous putative risk factors, increase transparency in the provision of evidence, minimise potential bias in decision-making, improve risk communication, and allow for risk assessments based on Bayesian principles. This thesis consists of four empirical chapters. First, I inductively disaggregate dynamic person-exposure patterns (PEPs) of risk factors in 125 cases of lone-actor terrorism. Further analysis articulates four configurations of individual-level susceptibilities which interact differentially with situational, and exposure factors. The PEP typology ties patterns of risk factors to theorised causal mechanisms specified by a previously designed Risk Analysis Framework (RAF). This may be more stable grounds for risk assessment however than relying on the presence or absence of single factors. However, with no knowledge of base rates, the relevance of seemingly pertinent risk factors remains unclear. However, how to develop base rates is of equal concern. Hence, second, I develop the Base Rate Survey and compare two survey questioning designs, direct questioning and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT). Under the conditions described, direct questioning yields the most appropriate estimates. Third, I compare the base rates generated via direct questioning to those observed across a sample of lone-actor terrorists. Lone-actor terrorists demonstrated more propensity, situational, and exposure risk factors, suggesting these offenders may differ from the general population in measurable ways. Finally, moving beyond examining the prevalence rates of single factors, I collect a second sample in order to model the relations among these risk factors as a complex, dynamic system. To do so, the Base Rate Survey: UK is distributed to a representative sample of 1,500 participants from the UK. I introduce psychometric network modelling to terrorism studies which visualises the interactions among risk factors as a complex system via network graphs

Assessing the behavioural trajectories of terrorists: The role of psychological resilience

Within studies critically examining terrorist behaviour, the examination of mental health has largely focused on the relationship with the movement towards terrorist involvement. The impact of engagement in terrorism upon mental health has rarely been studied. However, recent research has shown that there is an association between terrorist engagement and the occurrence of mental health problems across the spectrum of terrorist involvement. This work therefore expands on previous research, and disaggregates three discrete stages of terrorist involvement; pre-engagement, engagement, and disengagement, to critically examine the role of psychological resilience on mental health. To determine whether psychological resilience protects against the negative psychological repercussions of terrorist involvement, we undertake cluster analyses. Results indicate that there is a subset of actors who demonstrate psychological resilience, and appear to maintain their mental health despite their experiences during involvement in terrorism

EXPO-12: Development and validation of the Exposure to Violent Extremism Scale

Objective: This study details the development and validation of the 12-item Exposure to Violent Extremism Scale (EXPO-12). We aimed to undertake a transparent and robust process of scale development to present a tool to facilitate research on the relationship between exposure and violent extremism. / Method: First, we generated an initial item pool and evaluated items via expert feedback (n = 6) and a task designed to assess item comprehension (n = 13; Study 1). Second, we explored the underlying factor structure with exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and evaluated item characteristics with item response theory (IRT) in a representative sample of the U.K. population (n = 1, 509; Study 2). Finally, we sought to replicate the factor structure proposed by Study 2 via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and examined convergent validity with a related construct, violent extremist intentions (n = 1, 475; Study 3). / Results: Study 1 resulted in a preliminary pool of 40 items. Study 2 used EFA to establish a four-factor structure consisting of 21 items. IRT further reduced the item pool by evaluating differential item functioning, discrimination, and location parameters, resulting in EXPO-12. Study 3 replicated the factor structure proposed in Study 2 via CFA. EXPO-12 demonstrated good convergent validity with violent extremist intentions. / Conclusion: EXPO-12 is presented as a preliminarily validated measure of the concept, alongside its limitations. The scale’s main implication is as a tool to facilitate research to unpack the complexity and nuances of the relationship between exposure and violent extremism

Prescient, inconsistent, and ignorant: Commentary on the Dispensation of dynamite

Comments on the article The Dispensation of Dynamite (1883, March 16) (see record 2018-63621-005). The Dispensation of Dynamite (1883, March 16) is equal parts prescient, inconsistent, ignorant, and devoid of true context. The authors try to contextualize aspects of Dispensation’s reporting, add some correctives to erroneous aspects, and draw upon contemporary debates within terrorism studies, as well as recent terrorist attacks. Dispensation reports the day after coordinated

Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators

A time sequence analysis is conducted on 125 lone-actor terrorists, most of whom mounted attacks in Europe and North America, utilizing the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), a structured professional judgment instrument with demonstrable interrater reliability and criterion, discriminant, and predictive validity. Both frequency filters (≥3) and coefficient filters (>.50) were applied to the data. Results indicate that virtually all distal characteristics, such as criminal violence, mental disorder, and ideology, preceded the proximal warning behaviors, such as pathway, fixation, identification, leakage, last resort, and directly communicated threats. Indicators that were “gatekeepers” and “turning point events” were also identified (Taylor et al., 2008). The time sequence analysis further validates the model of the TRAP-18 as a risk instrument for the assessment and management of lone-actor terrorist violence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved

Does cognitive inflexibility predict violent extremist behaviour intentions? A registered direct replication report of Zmigrod et al., 2019

Purpose: Zmigrod et al. (2019a, Frontiers in Psychology, 10, 989) demonstrated that lower levels of cognitive flexibility predict a higher willingness to fight and die for the national in-group. We conducted a registered direct replication of their Study 1. Extending the original study, we examined whether the documented relationship held when a self-report measure for cognitive flexibility was introduced and when identity fusion was controlled for. We also investigated whether cognitive inflexibility predicts normative pro-group behaviour intentions. // Methods: Participants (N = 1378) reported in a cross-sectional survey study their willingness to fight, die and sacrifice themselves for the in-group and completed the Remote Associates (RAT) as and Wisconsin Card Sorting (WCST) tests. Afterwards, self-reported cognitive flexibility, identity fusion and normative pro-group behaviour intentions were assessed. // Results: Results showed a small negative relationship between RAT accuracy rates and willingness to fight and die. WCST accuracy rates were positively related with willingness to die but not correlated with willingness to fight. Self-report measures of cognitive flexibility were partially positively and partially negatively associated with support for violent extremism. There was further evidence that lower cognitive flexibility predicts higher normative pro-group behaviour intentions. A mini meta-analysis, which synthesized findings from the original study and our replication, demonstrated a relatively small negative correlation between cognitive flexibility and support for violent extremism. // Conclusions: In summary, even though not all individual results could be replicated, we confirmed the overall conclusion of the original study: lower cognitive flexibility predicted stronger willingness to fight and die for an in-group. The findings highlight that it is important to integrate cognitive style in multi-level frameworks of risk factors of violent extremism. Additionally, our results point out that the validity of different measures of cognitive flexibility, including self-report tools, must be further examined. Future research that evaluates cognitive flexibility training in the context of CVE/PVE interventions is also encouraged

Vulnerability to radicalisation in a general population: a psychometric network approach

A public health approach to countering the threat from extremism aims to manage vulnerability before behaviour escalates to require involvement from the criminal justice system. Fundamental to applying a public health approach is understanding how risk (and protective) factors can be modified, in other words, the functional roles of these factors. To unpack the functional roles of risk factors, a more dynamic approach to modelling the complex relationships between factors is needed. In the present study we surveyed a representative sample of the UK general population (n = 1500) where participants self-reported risk factors and indicators for vulnerability to radicalisation. Operationalising analytical guidance from a Risk Analysis Framework (RAF), we applied psychometric network modelling to visualise the relationships among risk factors relating to individual-level propensities, situational influences, and exposure to extremism-enabling environments. We present our results as a series of network graphs and discuss (a) how risk factors ‘cluster’ or ‘co-occur’, (b) the most influential risk factors which may be important for intervention and prevention, and (c) ‘risk pathways’ which suggest potential putative risk and/or protective factors. We present our findings as evidence for a public health approach to countering the threat from extremism

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone‐actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone‐actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime‐ and/or violence‐supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime‐ and/or violence‐supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone‐actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone‐actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism

Frequency range and explicit expressions for negative permittivity and permeability for an isotropic medium formed by a lattice of perfectly conducting Ω\Omega particles

An analytical model is presented for a rectangular lattice of isotropic scatterers with electric and magnetic resonances. Each isotropic scatterer is formed by putting appropriately 6 $\Omega$-shaped perfectly conducting particles on the faces of a cubic unit cell. A self-consistent dispersion equation is derived and then used to calculate correctly the effective permittivity and permeability in the frequency band where the lattice can be homogenized. The frequency range in which both the effective permittivity and permeability are negative corresponds to the mini-band of backward waves within the resonant band of the individual isotropic scatterer.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Quantum kinetic theory of the filamentation instability

The quantum electromagnetic dielectric tensor for a multi species plasma is re-derived from the gauge invariant Wigner-Maxwell system and presented under a form very similar to the classical one. The resulting expression is then applied to a quantum kinetic theory of the electromagnetic filamentation instability. Comparison is made with the quantum fluid theory including a Bohm pressure term, and with the cold classical plasma result. A number of analytical expressions are derived for the cutoff wave vector, the largest growth rate and the most unstable wave vector