Statistical modeling of HIV, tuberculosis, and Hepatitis B transmission in Ghana

Most mortality studies usually attribute death to single disease, while various other diseases could also act in the same individual or a population at large. Few works have been done by considering HIV, Tuberculosis (TB), and Hepatitis B (HB) as jointly acting in a population in spite of their high rate of infections in Ghana. This study applied competing risk methods on these three diseases by assuming they were the major risks in the study population. Among all opportunistic infections that could also act within HIV-infected individuals, TB has been asserted to be the most predominant. Other studies have also shown cases of HIV and Hepatitis B coinfections. The validity of these comorbidity assertions was statistically determined by exploring the conditional dependencies existing among HIV, TB, and HB through Bayesian networks or directed graphical model. Through Classification tree, sex and age group of individuals were found as significant demographic predictors that influence the prevalence of HIV and TB. Females were more likely to contract HIV, whereas males were prone to contracting TB

Markov chain modeling of HIV, tuberculosis, and Hepatitis B transmission in Ghana

Several mathematical and standard epidemiological models have been proposed in studying infectious disease dynamics. These models help to understand the spread of disease infections. However, most of these models are not able to estimate other relevant disease metrics such as probability of first infection and recovery as well as the expected time to infection and recovery for both susceptible and infected individuals. That is, most of the standard epidemiological models used in estimating transition probabilities (TPs) are not able to generalize the transition estimates of disease outcomes at discrete time steps for future predictions. This paper seeks to address the aforementioned problems through a discrete-time Markov chain model. Secondary datasets from cohort studies were collected on HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and hepatitis B (HB) cases from a regional hospital in Ghana. The Markov chain model revealed that hepatitis B was more infectious over time than tuberculosis and HIV even though the probability of first infection of these diseases was relatively low within the study population. However, individuals infected with HIV had comparatively lower life expectancies than those infected with tuberculosis and hepatitis B. Discrete-time Markov chain technique is recommended as viable for modeling disease dynamics in Ghana

Demonstration of Cross-Protective Vaccine Immunity against an Emerging Pathogenic Ebolavirus Species

A major challenge in developing vaccines for emerging pathogens is their continued evolution and ability to escape human immunity. Therefore, an important goal of vaccine research is to advance vaccine candidates with sufficient breadth to respond to new outbreaks of previously undetected viruses. Ebolavirus (EBOV) vaccines have demonstrated protection against EBOV infection in nonhuman primates (NHP) and show promise in human clinical trials but immune protection occurs only with vaccines whose antigens are matched to the infectious challenge species. A 2007 hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Uganda demonstrated the existence of a new EBOV species, Bundibugyo (BEBOV), that differed from viruses covered by current vaccine candidates by up to 43% in genome sequence. To address the question of whether cross-protective immunity can be generated against this novel species, cynomolgus macaques were immunized with DNA/rAd5 vaccines expressing ZEBOV and SEBOV glycoprotein (GP) prior to lethal challenge with BEBOV. Vaccinated subjects developed robust, antigen-specific humoral and cellular immune responses against the GP from ZEBOV as well as cellular immunity against BEBOV GP, and immunized macaques were uniformly protected against lethal challenge with BEBOV. This report provides the first demonstration of vaccine-induced protective immunity against challenge with a heterologous EBOV species, and shows that Ebola vaccines capable of eliciting potent cellular immunity may provide the best strategy for eliciting cross-protection against newly emerging heterologous EBOV species

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Vector Choice Determines Immunogenicity and Potency of Genetic Vaccines against Angola Marburg Virus in Nonhuman Primates▿

The immunogenicity and durability of genetic vaccines are influenced by the composition of gene inserts and choice of delivery vector. DNA vectors are a promising vaccine approach showing efficacy when combined in prime-boost regimens with recombinant protein or viral vectors, but they have shown limited comparative efficacy as a stand-alone platform in primates, due possibly to suboptimal gene expression or cell targeting. Here, regimens using DNA plasmids modified for optimal antigen expression and recombinant adenovirus (rAd) vectors, all encoding the glycoprotein (GP) gene from Angola Marburg virus (MARV), were compared for their ability to provide immune protection against lethal MARV Angola infection. Heterologous DNA-GP/rAd5-GP prime-boost and single-modality rAd5-GP, as well as the DNA-GP-only vaccine, prevented death in all vaccinated subjects after challenge with a lethal dose of MARV Angola. The DNA/DNA vaccine induced humoral responses comparable to those induced by a single inoculation with rAd5-GP, as well as CD4+ and CD8+ cellular immune responses, with skewing toward CD4+ T-cell activity against MARV GP. Vaccine regimens containing rAd-GP, alone or as a boost, exhibited cellular responses with CD8+ T-cell dominance. Across vaccine groups, CD8+ T-cell subset dominance comprising cells exhibiting a tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and gamma interferon (IFN-γ) double-positive functional phenotype was associated with an absence or low frequency of clinical symptoms, suggesting that both the magnitude and functional phenotype of CD8+ T cells may determine vaccine efficacy against infection by MARV Angola