Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors

In this paper, I investigate the development and determinants of CDS spreads for 18 major European banks between December 2001 and January 2004 using daily data. I demonstrate that two nonstationary common factors can be extracted from the data that together explain most CDS spread variation across time and across banks. The group of German banks plus a few Southern-European banks appear to systematically have high CDS spreads and to be relatively sensitive to changes in the underlying factors. The dominating first common factor impacts on all banks in a similar direction, suggesting strong market integration. However, the quantitatively less important second factor has opposite effects on credit spreads of Southern European versus Northern European banks, suggesting some remaining country-specific or region-specific credit risk. Finally, I show that the first common factor may indeed be interpreted as a measure of market conditions as it is cointegrated with the European P/E ratio and the 2-year nominal interest ratecredit default swap spreads, contagion, cointegration, factor analysis

The Determinants of Corporate Liquidity in the Netherlands

We investigate the driving forces of corporate liquidity for a balanced panel of large Dutch non-financial firms during the period 1986-1997 using an error-correction framework. This framework allows a crucial distinction between short-run and long-run determinants of corporate liquidity. We conclude from our empirical estimates that long-run corporate liquidity targets exist and are based on a small number of firm characteristics. In the short run liquidity responds passively to exogenous shocks. The latter phenomenon is consistent both with buffer stock behaviour and pecking order theory. Passive liquidity behaviour does not extend to the long run, however. On average eighty percent of deviations from target is eliminated within one year. Overall, we conclude that the corporate liquidity ratio is an actively managed financial ratio and does not passively adjust to financial decisions taken elsewhere in the firm. Based on long run evidence, a pecking order theory of corporate liquidity holdings must be rejected.financial economics and financial management ;

Industry Effects of Bank Lending in Germany

We investigate the industry dimension of bank lending and its role in the monetary transmission mechanism in Germany. We use dynamic panel methods to estimate bank lending functions for eight industries for the period 1992-2002. Our evidence shows that bank lending growth predominantly depends on the industry composition of bank loan portfolios, both through the underlying cyclical fluctuations in industry-specific bank credit demand and through industry-specific credit supply effects.Monetary policy transmission, credit channel, industry structure, dynamic panel data

Origins of persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area

In this paper we document the growing dispersion of external and internal balances between countries in the North and South of the Euro area over the time period 1992 to 2007. We find a persistent divergence process that seems to have started with the introduction of the common currency and has its roots in the savings and investment behavior of private sectors. We dismiss the common argument in the literature that imbalances are the temporary outcome of an overall European economic convergence process and argue that future research should place greater emphasis on country heterogeneity in behavior to fully understand economic developments in the Euro area and to derive policy implications.macroeconomics ;

Persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area: causes and consequences

In this paper, the authors document a growing divergence between current account imbalances in northern and southern euro area countries from 1992 to 2007. The imbalance occurred without a concomitant rise in productivity and growth in the southern (deficit) countries. The authors argue that systematic monitoring of external imbalances and implementation of better coordinated policies to prevent the emergence of unsustainably large imbalances in the euro area is advisable because (i) country heterogeneity and the absence of optimal currency area characteristics may lead to the emergence of large cur- rent account imbalances without automatic gains in productivity and economic growth to sustain these imbalances, (ii) the absence of sufficient market-based adjustment mechanisms substantially increases the costs of ultimate adjustment toward more sustainable current account positions, and (iii) large external imbalances—particularly through the major role of the banking system—potentially have strong negative consequences for fiscal policy.Balance of payments ; Macroeconomics ; European Union countries

The Impact of International Portfolio Composition on Consumption Risk Sharing

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk-sharing. These studies typically find that countries with high equity home bias exhibit relatively low international consumption risk sharing. We extend this line of research and demonstrate that it is not only a country's equity home bias that prevents consumption risk sharing. In addition, the composition of a country's foreign asset portfolio plays an important role. Using panel-data regression for a group of OECD countries over the period 1980-2007, we show that foreign investment bias has additional explanatory power for consumption risk sharing.international financial integration, foreign investment bias, geography of international investment, equity home bias, international portfolio diversification

Taking Home Bias Seriously: Absolute and Relative Measures Explaining Consumption Risk-Sharing

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk-sharing. While these studies typically employ absolutemeasures to account for a country''s integration in international capital markets, we devise a relative measure that is motivated by the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (I-CAPM) literature. Our measure captures the composition of a country''s international portfolio relative to the world portfolio, which all countries should optimally hold according to the I-CAPM. Using panel-data regression for a group of OECD countries during the financial globalization period 1980-2007, we show that the geography of international portfolioshelps to explain the degree of consumption risk-sharing obtained.macroeconomics ;

International Portfolio Balance – Modeling the External Adjustment Process

Unprecedented growth in private cross-border asset trade and asymmetric internationalbalance sheets are well-documented stylized facts of financial integration. Moreover, weobserve that current accounts are no longer the number one determinant of external balances. Advancing the work of Blanchard et al. (2005), this paper develops a portfolio-balance model that recognizes these stylized facts and shows how they influence the joint dynamics of the current account, the exchange rate and relative asset prices. Calibrating the model to the external adjustment process of the US, the model produces results that are broadly consistent with recent empirical trends. In particular, we find that the composition of its international balance sheet helps the US to better cope with external shocks.international economics and trade ;

International linkages in the term structure of interest rates

Interest rates ; Banks and banking, International

Origins of persistent macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area

In this paper we document the growing dispersion of external and internal balances between countries in the North and South of the Euro area over the time period 1992 to 2007. We find a persistent divergence process that seems to have started with the introduction of the common currency and has its roots in the savings and investment behavior of private sectors. We dismiss the common argument in the literature that imbalances are the temporary outcome of an overall European economic convergence process and argue that future research should place greater emphasis on country heterogeneity in behavior to fully understand economic developments in the Euro area and to derive policy implications.Euro area, current acccount imbalances, Stability and Growth Pact