X-ray Isophote Shapes and the Mass of NGC 3923

We present analysis of the shape and radial mass distribution of the E4 galaxy NGC 3923 using archival X-ray data from the ROSAT PSPC and HRI. The X-ray isophotes are significantly elongated with ellipticity e_x=0.15 (0.09-0.21) (90% confidence) for semi-major axis a\sim 10h^{-1}_70 kpc and have position angles aligned with the optical isophotes within the estimated uncertainties. Applying the Geometric Test for dark matter, which is independent of the gas temperature profile, we find that the ellipticities of the PSPC isophotes exceed those predicted if M propto L at a marginal significance level of 85% (80%) for oblate (prolate) symmetry. Detailed hydrostatic models of an isothermal gas yield ellipticities for the gravitating matter, e_mass=0.35-0.66 (90% confidence), which exceed the intensity weighted ellipticity of the R-band optical light, = 0.30 (e_R^max=0.39). We conclude that mass density profiles with rho\sim r^{-2} are favored over steeper profiles if the gas is essentially isothermal (which is suggested by the PSPC spectrum) and the surface brightness in the central regions (r<~15") is not modified substantially by a multi-phase cooling flow, magnetic fields, or discrete sources. We argue that these effects are unlikely to be important for NGC 3923. (The derived e_{mass} range is very insensitive to these issues.) Our spatial analysis also indicates that the allowed contribution to the ROSAT emission from a population of discrete sources with Sigma_x propto Sigma_R is significantly less than that indicated by the hard spectral component measured by ASCA.Comment: 14 pages (6 figures), To Appear in MNRA

X-ray Constraints on the Intrinsic Shape of the Lenticular Galaxy NGC 1332

We have analyzed ROSAT PSPC X-ray data of the optically elongated S0 galaxy NGC 1332 with the purposes of constraining the intrinsic shape of its underlying mass and presenting a detailed investigation of the uncertainties resulting from the assumptions underlying this type of analysis. The X-ray isophotes are elongated with ellipticity $0.10 - 0.27$ (90% confidence) for semi-major axes 75\arcsec -90\arcsec and have orientations consistent with the optical isophotes (ellipticity $\sim 0.43$). The spectrum is poorly constrained by the PSPC data and cannot rule out sizeable radial temperature gradients or an emission component due to discrete sources equal in magnitude to the hot gas. Using (and clarifying) the "geometric test" for dark matter, we determined that the hypothesis that mass-traces-light is not consistent with the X-ray data at 68% confidence and marginally consistent at 90% confidence independent of the gas temperature profile. Detailed modeling gives constraints on the ellipticity of the underlying mass of \epsilon_{mass} = 0.47 - 0.72 (0.31 - 0.83) at 68% (90%) confidence for isothermal and polytropic models. The total mass of the isothermal models within a=43.6 kpc (D = 20h^{-1}_{80} Mpc) is M_{tot} = (0.38 - 1.7) \times 10^{12}M_{\sun} (90% confidence) corresponding to total blue mass-to-light ratio \Upsilon_B = (31.9 - 143) \Upsilon_{\sun}. Similar results are obtained when the dark matter is fit directly using the known distributions of the stars and gas. When possible rotation of the gas and emission from discrete sources are included flattened mass distributions are still required, although the constraints on \epsilon_{mass}$, but not the total mass, are substantially weakened.Comment: 45 pages (figures missing), PostScript, to appear in ApJ on January 20, 199

The Tactical and Strategic Value of Commodity Futures

Historically, commodity futures have had excess returns similar to those of equities. But what should we expect in the future? The usual risk factors are unable to explain the time-series variation in excess returns. In addition, our evidence suggests that commodity futures are an inconsistent, if not tenuous, hedge against unexpected inflation. Further, the historically high average returns to a commodity futures portfolio are largely driven by the choice of weighting schemes. Indeed, an equally weighted long-only portfolio of commodity futures returns has approximately a zero excess return over the past 25 years. Our portfolio analysis suggests that the a long-only strategic allocation to commodities as a general asset class is a bet on the future term structure of commodity prices, in general, and on specific portfolio weighting schemes, in particular. In contrast, we provide evidence that there are distinct benefits to an asset allocation overlay that tactically allocates using commodity futures exposures. We examine three trading strategies that use both momentum and the term structure of futures prices. We find that the tactical strategies provide higher average returns and lower risk than a long-only commodity futures exposure.