Quantitative decision making for investment in global health intervention trials: case study of the NEWBORN study on emollient therapy in preterm infants in Kenya

Background: Partners from an NGO, academia, industry and government applied a tool originating in the private sector – Quantitative Decision Making (QDM) – to rigorously assess whether to invest in testing a global health intervention. The proposed NEWBORN study was designed to assess whether topical emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil in infants with very low birthweight <1500 g in Kenya would result in a significant reduction in neonatal mortality compared to standard of care. Methods: The QDM process consisted of prior elicitation, modelling of prior distributions, and simulations to assess Probability of Success (PoS) via assurance calculations. Expert opinion was elicited on the probability that emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil will have any measurable benefit on neonatal mortality based on available evidence. The distribution of effect sizes was modelled and trial data simulated using Statistical Analysis System to obtain the overall assurance which represents the PoS for the planned study. A decision-making framework was then applied to characterise the ability of the study to meet pre-selected decision-making endpoints. Resultsm There was a 47% chance of a positive outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality of ≥15%), a 45% chance of a negative outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality <10%), and an 8% chance of ending in the consider zone (ie, a mortality reduction of 10 to <15%) for infants <1500 g. Conclusions: QDM is a novel tool from industry which has utility for prioritisation of investments in global health, complementing existing tools [eg, Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative]. Results from application of QDM to the NEWBORN study suggests that it has a high probability of producing clear results. Findings encourage future formation of public-private partnerships for health

Household finances of Carer's Allowance recipients

This report presents findings from qualitative research into the experiences of people claiming or with an underlying entitlement to Carer's Allowance (CA). The findings are based on in-depth interviews with 44 people who claimed CA or had an underlying entitlement to it, in three areas of the UK in summer 2013. The aim of the research was to better understand the following research questions: • How is CA viewed in terms of the household budget, and does this vary by type of household? • How do recipients use CA and what would be the impact of non-receipt? • How does the use of CA vary depending on who is being cared for and where? • What led to the decision to claim CA? • Has receipt of CA had different impacts at different times of the caring career? • What impact has caring had on labour market participation

Complexity and Community Context: Learning from the Evaluation Design of a National Community Empowerment Programme

Community empowerment interventions, which aim to build greater individual and community control over health, are shaped by the community systems in which they are implemented. Drawing on complex systems thinking in public health research, this paper discusses the evaluation approach used for a UK community empowerment programme focused on disadvantaged neighbourhoods. It explores design choices and the tension between the overall enquiry questions, which were based on a programme theory of change, and the varied dynamic socio-cultural contexts in intervention communities. The paper concludes that the complexity of community systems needs to be accounted for through in-depth case studies that incorporate community perspectives

The scope of coverage under the Rotterdam Rules - Unimodal and multimodal aspects

U radu se proučavaju, raščlanjuju i interpretiraju sve relevantne odredbe o polju primjene Roterdamskih pravila. Analizira se njihovo opće polje primjene, govori se o ugovorima, prijevozima te subjektima prijevoznih poslova na koje se Roterdamska pravila primjenjuju. Proučavaju se i specifične odredbe o posebnim isključenjima. Tumači se u kojem opsegu Roterdamska pravila pokrivaju multimodalni prijevoz te se govori o multimodalnosti kao obilježju suvremenog prijevoza i unifikaciji multimodalnog prijevoza. Pomno se ulazi u sadržaj i doseg odredbi kojima se propisuju uvjeti koji moraju biti ispunjeni da bi odredbe druge međunarodne prijevozne konvencije imale prednost u odnosu na odredbe Roterdamskih pravila. Nastoji se ukazati i na razlike u pogledu njezinog polja primjene i polja primjene međunarodnih konvencija koje su na snazi, a kojima se uređuje prijevoz stvari morem. Odredbe o polju primjene iznimno su važne i zadiru u bit nove konvencije, njezinu koncepciju, temeljna načela i ciljeve novog pravnog uređenja koje Konvencija propisuje. Najvažnije novine polja primjene Roterdamskih pravila u odnosu na međunarodne konvencije koje su na snazi, a koje uređuju prijevoz stvari morem jesu proširenje polja primjene na prijevoze “od vrata do vrata” i novo uređenje prijevoznih isprava. Cilj rada je skrenuti pažnju na polje primjene kao važno pitanje koje utječe na recepciju Roterdamskih pravila i istaknuti ona rješenja koja se najviše kritiziraju i za koja se osnovano može pretpostaviti da predstavljaju zapreku za njihovu recepciju.This paper considers the application of provisions of the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Carriage of Goods Wholly or Partly by Sea (the Rotterdam Rules). The scope of coverage issues go to the heart of the new Convention. This article highlights the major topics relating to the scope of coverage. All aspects of this key issue are examined here: the general scope of application; criteria that must be satisfied for the Convention to be applied; types of transactions that the Convention might govern; application to certain parties. Some of these questions have been particularly controversial. Moreover, this paper addresses the circumstances under which the Rotterdam Rules give way to other conventions. The author discusses issues that may arise from the fact that the Convention will cover both the inward and the outward carriage. It further considers specific exclusions from the Convention. Differences between the Rotterdam Rules and the international legislation in force are pointed out. One of the most significant changes introduced by the Rotterdam Rules to the existing law is the expansion of its scope of coverage to include the door-to-door transport. The Convention covers both the inbound and the outbound international shipments to or from a Contracting State. The Convention applies to contracts in both the liner and the non-liner trades, but not to charterparties and other contracts for the use of a ship or of any space thereon. Volume contract, to which the Convention applies, may provide for greater or lesser obligations and liabilities than those imposed by the Rotterdam Rules

Avoidable readmission in Hong Kong - system, clinician, patient or social factor?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies that identify reasons for readmissions are gaining importance in the light of the changing demographics worldwide which has led to greater demand for hospital beds. It is essential to profile the prevalence of avoidable readmissions and understand its drivers so as to develop possible interventions for reducing readmissions that are preventable. The aim of this study is to identify the magnitude of avoidable readmissions, its contributing factors and costs in Hong Kong.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a retrospective analysis of 332,453 inpatient admissions in the Medical specialty in public hospital system in Hong Kong in year 2007. A stratified random sample of patients with unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge was selected for medical record reviews. Eight physicians reviewed patients' medical records and classified whether a readmission was avoidable according to an assessment checklist. The results were correlated with hospital inpatient data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was found that 40.8% of the 603 unplanned readmissions were judged avoidable by the reviewers. Avoidable readmissions were due to: clinician factor (42.3%) including low threshold for admission and premature discharge etc.; patient factor (including medical and health factor) (41.9%) such as relapse or progress of previous complaint, and compliance problems etc., followed by system factor (14.6%) including inadequate discharge planning, inadequate palliative care/terminal care, etc., and social factor (1.2%) such as carer system, lack of support and community services. After adjusting for patients' age, gender, principal diagnosis at previous discharge and readmission hospitals, the risk factors for avoidable readmissions in the total population i.e. all acute care admissions irrespective of whether there was a readmission or not, included patients with a longer length of stay, and with higher number of hospitalizations and attendance in public outpatient clinics and Accident and Emergency departments in the past 12 months. In the analysis of only unplanned readmissions, it was found that the concordance of the principal diagnosis for admission and readmission, and shorter time period between discharge and readmission were associated with avoidable readmissions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study found that almost half of the readmissions could have been prevented. They had been mainly due to clinician and patient factors, in particular, both of which were intimately related to clinical management and patient care. These readmissions could be prevented by a system of ongoing clinical review to examine the clinical practice/decision for discharge, and improving clinical care and enhancing patient knowledge of the early warning signs for relapse. The importance of adequate and appropriate ambulatory care to support the patients in the community was also a key finding to reduce avoidable readmissions. Education on patient self-management should also be enhanced to minimize the patient factors with regard to avoidable readmission. Our findings thus provide important insights into the development of an effective discharge planning system which should place patients and carers as the primacy focus of care by engaging them along with the healthcare professionals in the whole discharge planning process.</p

Study protocol: The development of a pilot study employing a randomised controlled design to investigate the feasibility and effects of a peer support program following discharge from a specialist first-episode psychosis treatment centre

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Young people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) are at risk of a range of negative outcomes. Specialist FEP services have been developed to provide comprehensive, multi-disciplinary treatment. However, these services are often available for a restricted period and the services that young people may be transferred to are less comprehensive. This represents a risk of drop out from treatment services in a group already considered to be at risk of disengagement. Peer support groups have been shown to improve social relationships among people with psychosis however individual peer support programs have not been tested on young people with first-episode psychosis; nor have they been tested at the point of discharge from services.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The study is an 18-month randomised controlled trial being conducted at Orygen Youth Health Research Centre in Melbourne, Australia. The aim of the study is to test the feasibility and effects of a 6-month peer support intervention delivered to young people with FEP over the period of discharge. Participants are young people aged 15-24 who are being discharged from a specialist first-episode psychosis treatment centre. There is a 6-month recruitment period. The intervention comprises two hours of contact per fortnight during which peer support workers can assist participants to engage with their new services, or other social and community activities. Participants will be assessed at baseline and post intervention (6 months).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This paper describes the development of a randomised-controlled trial which aims to pilot a peer support program among young people who are being discharged from a specialist FEP treatment centre. If effective, the intervention could lead to benefits not only for participants over the discharge period, but for peer support workers as well.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The study was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; number: ACTRN12610000241033.</p

Can a GP be a generalist and a specialist? Stakeholders views on a respiratory General Practitioner with a special interest service in the UK

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Separate and combined analysis of successive dependent outcomes after breast-conservation surgery: recurrence, metastases, second cancer and death

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the setting of recurrent events, research studies commonly count only the first occurrence of an outcome in a subject. However this approach does not correctly reflect the natural history of the disease. The objective is to jointly identify prognostic factors associated with locoregional recurrences (LRR), contralateral breast cancer, distant metastases (DM), other primary cancer than breast and breast cancer death and to evaluate the correlation between these events.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients (n = 919) with a primary invasive breast cancer and treated in a cancer center in South-Western France with breast-conserving surgery from 1990 to 1994 and followed up to January 2006 were included. Several types of non-independent events could be observed for the same patient: a LRR, a contralateral breast cancer, DM, other primary cancer than breast and breast cancer death. Data were analyzed separately and together using a random-effects survival model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>LRR represent the most frequent type of first failure (14.6%). The risk of any event is higher for young women (less than 40 years old) and in the first 10 years of follow-up after the surgery. In the combined analysis histological tumor size, grade, number of positive nodes, progesterone receptor status and treatment combination are prognostic factors of any event. The results show a significant dependence between these events with a successively increasing risk of a new event after the first and second event. The risk of developing a new failure is greatly increased (RR = 4.25; 95%CI: 2.51-7.21) after developing a LRR, but also after developing DM (RR = 3.94; 95%CI: 2.23-6.96) as compared to patients who did not develop a first event.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We illustrated that the random effects survival model is a more satisfactory method to evaluate the natural history of a disease with multiple type of events.</p