Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model

Comparing Remote Sensing and Field-Based Approaches to Estimate Ladder Fuels and Predict Wildfire Burn Severity

While fire is an important ecological process, wildfire size and severity have increased as a result of climate change, historical fire suppression, and lack of adequate fuels management. Ladder fuels, which bridge the gap between the surface and canopy leading to more severe canopy fires, can inform management to reduce wildfire risk. Here, we compared remote sensing and field-based approaches to estimate ladder fuel density. We also determined if densities from different approaches could predict wildfire burn severity (Landsat-based Relativized delta Normalized Burn Ratio; RdNBR). Ladder fuel densities at 1-m strata and 4-m bins (1–4 m and 1–8 m) were collected remotely using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), a handheld-mobile laser scanner (HMLS), an unoccupied aerial system (UAS) with a multispectral camera and Structure from Motion (SfM) processing (UAS-SfM), and an airborne laser scanner (ALS) in 35 plots in oak woodlands in Sonoma County, California, United States prior to natural wildfires. Ladder fuels were also measured in the same plots using a photo banner. Linear relationships among ladder fuel densities estimated at broad strata (1–4 m, 1–8 m) were evaluated using Pearson’s correlation (r). From 1 to 4 m, most densities were significantly correlated across approaches. From 1 to 8 m, TLS densities were significantly correlated with HMLS, UAS-SfM and ALS densities and UAS-SfM and HMLS densities were moderately correlated with ALS densities. Including field-measured plot-level canopy base height (CBH) improved most correlations at medium and high CBH, especially those including UAS-SfM data. The most significant generalized linear model to predict RdNBR included interactions between CBH and ladder fuel densities at specific 1-m stratum collected using TLS, ALS, and HMLS approaches (R2 = 0.67, 0.66, and 0.44, respectively). Results imply that remote sensing approaches for ladder fuel density can be used interchangeably in oak woodlands, except UAS-SfM combined with the photo banner. Additionally, TLS, HMLS and ALS approaches can be used with CBH from 1 to 8 m to predict RdNBR. Future work should investigate how ladder fuel densities using our techniques can be validated with destructive sampling and incorporated into predictive models of wildfire severity and fire behavior at varying spatial scales

The 1930s as black mirror: Visions of historical repetition in the global financial press, 2007-2009

Media coverage of the recent financial crisis has referred extensively to various past crises, and in particular to the events of the 1930s. This article suggests that the idea of the Great Depression has effectively come to function as a kind of historical ‘black mirror’ – a quasi-object within which conjuncture and historical representation interact to produce an image of capitalist history itself. Focusing on the journalistic output of four key financial publications, I trace how portrayals of the 1930s have evolved over the course of the crisis. I find that while the 1930s are frequently and consistently invoked in ways that purport to reveal the historicity of the crisis, these representations produce an oscillation between different visions of historical repetition, which in turn underpin competing interpretations of the crisis as it unfolds. In so doing, I argue, appeals to the 1930s have simultaneously served to conceal and disclose the constitutive relation of historical imagination to historical process – a double move that has had the paradoxical effect of both securing and undermining the reproduction of finance capitalism as we have come to know it

Examining the Seyfert - Starburst Connection with Arcsecond Resolution Radio Continuum Observations

We compare the arcsecond-scale circumnuclear radio continuum properties between five Seyfert and five starburst galaxies, concentrating on the search for any structures that could imply a spatial or causal connection between the nuclear activity and a circumnuclear starburst ring. No evidence is found in the radio emission for a link between the triggering or feeding of nuclear activity and the properties of circumnuclear star formation. Conversely, there is no clear evidence of nuclear outflows or jets triggering activity in the circumnuclear rings of star formation. Interestingly, the difference in the angle between the apparent orientation of the most elongated radio emission and the orientation of the major axis of the galaxy is on average larger in Seyferts than in starburst galaxies, and Seyferts appear to have a larger physical size scale of the circumnuclear radio continuum emission. The concentration, asymmetry, and clumpiness parameters of radio continuum emission in Seyferts and starbursts are comparable, as are the radial profiles of radio continuum and near-infrared line emission. The circumnuclear star formation and supernova rates do not depend on the level of nuclear activity. The radio emission usually traces the near-infrared Br-gamma and H2 1-0 S(1) line emission on large spatial scales, but locally their distributions are different, most likely because of the effects of varying local magnetic fields and dust absorption and scattering.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

The convective storm initiation project

Copyright @ 2007 AMSThe Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.This work is funded by the National Environment Research Council following an initial award from the HEFCE Joint Infrastructure Fund

Mass-loss and expansion of ultra compact dwarf galaxies through gas expulsion and stellar evolution for top-heavy stellar initial mass functions

(abridged) The dynamical V-band mass-to-light ratios of ultra compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs) are higher than predicted by simple stellar population models with the canonical stellar initial mass function (IMF). One way to explain this finding is a top-heavy IMF, so that the unseen mass is provided by additional remnants of high-mass stars. A possible explanation for why the IMF in UCDs could be top-heavy while this is not the case in less massive stellar systems is that encounters between proto-stars and stars become probable in forming massive systems. However, the required number of additional stellar remnants proves to be rather high, which raises the question of how their progenitors would affect the early evolution of a UCD. We have therefore calculated the first 200 Myr of the evolution of the UCDs, using the particle-mesh code Superbox. It is assumed that the stellar populations of UCDs were created in an initial starburst, which implies heavy mass loss during the following approximately 40 Myr due to primordial gas expulsion and supernova explosions. We find at the end of the simulations for various initial conditions and (tabulated) mass-loss histories objects that roughly resemble UCDs. Thus, the existence of UCDs does not contradict the notion that their stellar populations formed rapidly and with a top-heavy IMF. We find tentative evidence that the UCDs may have had densities as high as 10^8 M_sun/pc^3 at birth.Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures. Figure 4 has been modified in this version; it now shows the quantities that were actually used in the paper. This modification therefore does not imply any further changes to the paper, but there are a few other, very minor changes (typos corrected, formulations changed)

What Makes Entrepreneurs Happy? Determinants of Satisfaction Among Founders

This study empirically investigates factors influencing satisfaction levels of founders of new ventures, using a representative sample of 1,107 Dutch founders. We relate entrepreneurial satisfaction (with income, psychological burden and leisure time) to firm performance, motivation and human capital. Founders with high levels of specific human capital are more satisfied with income than those with high levels of general human capital. Intrinsic motivation and that of combining responsibilities lowers stress and leads to more satisfaction with leisure time. Women are more satisfied with their income than men, even though they have a lower average monthly turnover

Lung inflammation does not affect the clearance kinetics of lipid nanocapsules following pulmonary administration

Lipid nanocapsules (LNCs) are semi-rigid spherical capsules with a triglyceride core that present a promising formulation option for the pulmonary delivery of drugs with poor aqueous solubility. Whilst the biodistribution of LNCs of different size has been studied following intravenous administration, the fate of LNCs following pulmonary delivery has not been reported. We investigated quantitatively whether lung inflammation affects the clearance of 50nm lipid nanocapsules, or is exacerbated by their pulmonary administration. Studies were conducted in mice with lipopolysaccharide-induced lung inflammation compared to healthy controls. Particle deposition and nanocapsule clearance kinetics were measured by single photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) imaging over 48 h. A significantly lower lung dose of (111)In-LNC50 was achieved in the lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-treated animals compared with healthy controls (p<0.001). When normalised to the delivered lung dose, the clearance kinetics of (111)In-LNC50 from the lungs fit a first order model with an elimination half-life of 10.5±0.9h (R(2)=0.995) and 10.6±0.3h (R(2)=1.000) for healthy and inflamed lungs respectively (n=3). In contrast, (111)In-diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA), a small hydrophilic molecule, was cleared rapidly from the lungs with the majority of the dose absorbed within 20min of administration. Biodistribution to lungs, stomach-intestine, liver, trachea-throat and blood at the end of the imaging period was unaltered by lung inflammation. This study demonstrated that lung clearance and whole body distribution of lipid nanocapsules were unaffected by the presence of acute lung inflammation

Semidiurnal tide in the 80-150 km region: an assimilative data analysis

A set of tabulated functions called `Hough Mode Extensions' (HMEs), which represent numerical extensions of classical Hough modes into the viscous regime of the thermosphere, are used to least-squares fit a climatological data base of tidal measurements. The data base consists of monthly average vertical profiles of semidiurnal amplitudes and phases at 17 radar sites accessing some part of the 80-150 km height region. The radars are distributed between 78 S and 70 N latitude, and each one provides measurements of one or more of the following: eastward wind, southward wind, perturbation temperature. As a result of the fitting process, a single complex normalizing coefficient is derived for each month and for each of the four HMEs, designated (2,2), (2,3), (2,4) and (2,5) after their classical Hough function designations. Once the complex coefficients are derived, reconstruction by weighted superposition of the HMEs results in globally continuous specifications of semidiurnal horizontal and vertical wind, temperature, pressure, and density throughout the 80-150 km height region. The tidal variations in density, in particular, provide greater accuracy for several aerospace applications. The methodology developed here can also be utilized to derive tidal lower boundary conditions for Thermospheric General Circulation Models (TGCMs), or as a basis for future empirical model development. Comparisons are also made with HME coefficients and global tidal fields from the and [(1989) J. atmos. terr. Phys. 51, 649] numerical tidal model.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/31428/1/0000346.pd

The stellar and sub-stellar IMF of simple and composite populations

The current knowledge on the stellar IMF is documented. It appears to become top-heavy when the star-formation rate density surpasses about 0.1Msun/(yr pc^3) on a pc scale and it may become increasingly bottom-heavy with increasing metallicity and in increasingly massive early-type galaxies. It declines quite steeply below about 0.07Msun with brown dwarfs (BDs) and very low mass stars having their own IMF. The most massive star of mass mmax formed in an embedded cluster with stellar mass Mecl correlates strongly with Mecl being a result of gravitation-driven but resource-limited growth and fragmentation induced starvation. There is no convincing evidence whatsoever that massive stars do form in isolation. Various methods of discretising a stellar population are introduced: optimal sampling leads to a mass distribution that perfectly represents the exact form of the desired IMF and the mmax-to-Mecl relation, while random sampling results in statistical variations of the shape of the IMF. The observed mmax-to-Mecl correlation and the small spread of IMF power-law indices together suggest that optimally sampling the IMF may be the more realistic description of star formation than random sampling from a universal IMF with a constant upper mass limit. Composite populations on galaxy scales, which are formed from many pc scale star formation events, need to be described by the integrated galactic IMF. This IGIMF varies systematically from top-light to top-heavy in dependence of galaxy type and star formation rate, with dramatic implications for theories of galaxy formation and evolution.Comment: 167 pages, 37 figures, 3 tables, published in Stellar Systems and Galactic Structure, Vol.5, Springer. This revised version is consistent with the published version and includes additional references and minor additions to the text as well as a recomputed Table 1. ISBN 978-90-481-8817-