Pan-Arctic Analysis of Cultural Ecosystem Services Using Social Media and Automated Content Analysis

In the Arctic, as in many parts of the world, interactions with the natural world are an important part of people\u27s experience and are often recorded in photographs. Emerging methods for automated content analysis of social media data offers opportunities to discover information on cultural ecosystem services from photographs across large samples of people and countries. We analysed over 800,000 Flickr photographs using Google\u27s Cloud Vision algorithm to identify the components of the natural environment most photographed and to map how and where different people interact with nature across eight Arctic countries. Almost all (91.1%) of users took one or more photographs of biotic nature, and such photos account for over half (53.2%) of Arctic photos on Flickr. We find that although the vast majority of Arctic human-nature interactions occur outside protected areas, people are slightly more likely to photograph nature inside protected areas after accounting for the low accessibility of Arctic protected areas. Wildlife photographers travel further from roads than people who take fewer photographs of wildlife, and people venture much further from roads inside protected areas. A large diversity of nature was reflected in the photographs, from mammals, birds, fish, fungi, plants and invertebrates, signalling an untapped potential to connect and engage people in the appreciation and conservation of the natural world. Our findings suggest that, despite limitations, automated content analysis can be a rapid and readily accessed source of data on how and where people interact with nature, and a large-scale method for assessing cultural ecosystem services across countries and cultures

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July–December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July–December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July–December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Solving problems of conservation inadequacy for nomadic birds

Nomadic birds move around the landscape in complex, irregular patterns, making it difficult for conservation managers and planners to decide where and how to act to mitigate threatening processes. Because of this uncertainty, nomadic species are poorly represented in protected areas in Australia. We outline approaches to discover nomadic species distributions, their dynamics and their consequent vulnerability to extinction. Using citizen science initiatives like eBird Australia and the BirdLife Australia Atlas, combined with new ways of applying species distribution modelling that take into account temporal patterns of movement driven by weather and productivity, we demonstrate how to map and predict the key sites for conservation action for nomadic species. We explore recent advancements in decision–support tools to incorporate species movements into systematic conservation planning, and highlight challenges in traditional approaches for protected area designation for conserving nomads. Due to the spatio–temporal dynamism of nomadic species distributions, the projected costs of managing nomads across Australia using traditional, static, protected areas are prohibitive. Landholders, including graziers and indigenous landholders, will play a key role in safeguarding these species on pastoral lands into the future, and future conservation efforts should be focussed on these stakeholders, through a combination of community engagement, market–based incentives (such as biodiversity farming or payments for artificial water source and ephemeral wetland management), cross–boundary and cross– agency collaboration policies, and new legislative instruments. Accounting for the movements of nomadic species and incorporating new approaches to integrated land management will help design conservation solutions that are effective, cost–efficient, and robust to uncertainty in this rapidly changing world

Quantifying the conservation gains from shared access to linear infrastructure

The proliferation of linear infrastructure such as roads and railways is a major global driver of cumulative biodiversity loss. One strategy for reducing habitat loss associated with development is to encourage linear infrastructure providers and users to share infrastructure networks. We quantified the reductions in biodiversity impact and capital costs under linear infrastructure sharing of a range of potential mine to port transportation links for 47 mine locations operated by 28 separate companies in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region of South Australia. We mapped transport links based on least‐cost pathways for different levels of linear‐infrastructure sharing and used expert‐elicited impacts of linear infrastructure to estimate the consequences for biodiversity. Capital costs were calculated based on estimates of construction costs, compensation payments, and transaction costs. We evaluated proposed mine‐port links by comparing biodiversity impacts and capital costs across 3 scenarios: an independent scenario, where no infrastructure is shared; a restricted‐access scenario, where the largest mining companies share infrastructure but exclude smaller mining companies from sharing; and a shared scenario where all mining companies share linear infrastructure. Fully shared development of linear infrastructure reduced overall biodiversity impacts by 76% and reduced capital costs by 64% compared with the independent scenario. However, there was considerable variation among companies. Our restricted‐access scenario showed only modest biodiversity benefits relative to the independent scenario, indicating that reductions are likely to be limited if the dominant mining companies restrict access to infrastructure, which often occurs without policies that promote sharing of infrastructure. Our research helps illuminate the circumstances under which infrastructure sharing can minimize the biodiversity impacts of development.This research was conducted with support from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program (NERP). We thank experts from the SA Department for Planning, Transport and Infrastructure, and the SA Department for State Development for providing advice and constructive feedback on scenario development, and the SA Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources for support and biodiversity data

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning

Quantifying the conservation gains from shared access to linear infrastructure

The proliferation of linear infrastructure such as roads and railways is a major global driver of cumulative biodiversity loss. One strategy for reducing habitat loss associated with development is to encourage linear infrastructure providers and users to share infrastructure networks. We quantified the reductions in biodiversity impact and capital costs under linear infrastructure sharing of a range of potential mine to port transportation links for 47 mine locations operated by 28 separate companies in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region of South Australia. We mapped transport links based on least-cost pathways for different levels of linear-infrastructure sharing and used expert-elicited impacts of linear infrastructure to estimate the consequences for biodiversity. Capital costs were calculated based on estimates of construction costs, compensation payments, and transaction costs. We evaluated proposed mine-port links by comparing biodiversity impacts and capital costs across 3 scenarios: an independent scenario, where no infrastructure is shared; a restricted-access scenario, where the largest mining companies share infrastructure but exclude smaller mining companies from sharing; and a shared scenario where all mining companies share linear infrastructure. Fully shared development of linear infrastructure reduced overall biodiversity impacts by 76% and reduced capital costs by 64% compared with the independent scenario. However, there was considerable variation among companies. Our restricted-access scenario showed only modest biodiversity benefits relative to the independent scenario, indicating that reductions are likely to be limited if the dominant mining companies restrict access to infrastructure, which often occurs without policies that promote sharing of infrastructure. Our research helps illuminate the circumstances under which infrastructure sharing can minimize the biodiversity impacts of development

Where nothing stands still: quantifying nomadism in Australian arid-zone birds

Context: Nomadism is a movement strategy in response to non-seasonal environmental variability. Knowledge of nomadic species movements is poor but is necessary to understand life histories and develop appropriate conservation strategies. Objectives: We provide a first quantification of nomadism among Australia’s arid bird community, which is presumed to be highly nomadic, by measuring variation in species’ occurrence and abundance among years to determine whether there are clear nomadic and non-nomadic strategists. Methods: We surveyed birds annually from 2012 to 2016. We measured how many years each species was present at a site and estimated inter-annual variability in species abundance, using both measures to infer species movement patterns. We used results to inform existing movement classifications. Results: Most arid species showed low site persistence, with species detected at the same site, on average, 1.8 out of the five survey years. Movement varied along a continuum rather than grouping into distinct nomadic and non-nomadic groups. Species classified as nomadic showed higher variation in abundance and lower site persistence than species classified as resident. Our method of quantifying nomadism closely replicated existing expert-derived movement classifications of arid zone bird species. Conclusions: Rather than a fixed attribute, movements of many species in our study can be heavily environment-dependent, and individuals of a single species can display a continuum of movements in different times and places. This complicates the conservation of species, but the growing recognition of the complexity of species movements offers opportunities for a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between species and environment