A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis Comparing the Efficacies of Eleven Novel Therapies with the Common Salvage Regimen for Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Background/Aims: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a relapsed and refractory hematological malignancy with a lower morbidity but higher mortality. In addition to hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, chemotherapy is used as the front-line treatment. However, the diversity of available agents and the inconsistency of outcomes of relevant trials render treatment decision-making tough. Network meta-analysis (NMA) is an efficient statistical framework that makes a comprehensive comparison and provides a valuable clinical reference. Methods: All the potential trials were retrieved from the medical database and screened according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The main characteristics of each trial as well as the primary outcomes, including complete remission (CR), overall response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and event-free survival (EFS), were extracted. In addition, the network graph was plotted to illustrate the connections among the trials involved. Comparison results in the network were exhibited in a forest plot. Furthermore, the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) was introduced to rank the treatments for each endpoint. Results: A total of 11 trials were selected from 1,625 identifications. No significant difference in the common treatment was observed for the endpoints CR and ORR. In terms of OS, CPX-351 (HR: 0.77, 95% CrI: 0.63, 0.94) and HiDAC plus MK-8776 (HR: 0.80, 95% CrI: 0.68, 0.93) showed a superiority over the common salvage regimen in the short term, while HiDAC plus MK-8776 (HR: 0.80, 95% CrI: 0.70, 0.93) and Ara-C plus vosaroxin (HR: 0.86, 95% CrI: 0.74, 0.99) outperformed the common salvage regimen for the 3-year OS. In addition, clofarabine plus Ara-C (HR: 0.61, 95% CrI: 0.53, 0.69) and CPX-351 (HR: 0.71, 95% CrI: 0.60, 0.83) were confirmed to be efficacious in enhancing the rate of EFS. Conclusion: Referring to the network outcome and SUCRA value, clofarabine plus Ara-C (CR: 79.05%, ORR: 80.02%) and Ara-C plus vosaroxin (CR: 75.42%, ORR: 73.43%) were potentially the top two choices for both CR and ORR. CPX-351 (1-year OS: 91.36%), HiDAC plus MK-8776 (3-year OS: 94.23%) and clofarabine plus Ara-C (1-year EFS: 97.34%) yielded the highest probabilities to be the optimal choices for 1-year OS, 3-year OS and 1-year EFS, respectively

An Application of 24Model to Analyse Capsizing of the Eastern Star Ferry

In the present study, the Eastern Star ferry accident was analyzed via 24Model. 24Model, as an accident causation model based on system thinking, holds that all causations of the accident are hazards and all hazards in the system need to be identified and comprehensively controlled in accident prevention. The result showed that five factors were the main causes of the accident. First, the direct causes: bad weather, the bad condition of the hull and the unsafe acts of the captain. Second, the indirect cause: the lack of safety awareness and safety knowledge of both the captain and the company’s senior management. Third, there were loopholes in safety management system, including the training, supervision and execution of the company. Forth, the root cause: the company didn’t establish a good safety culture. Last, the external causes: the severe market pressure, excessive regulatory authorities with puzzled relations and responsibilities-seriously hindered effective supervision. In order to prevent this kind of accident and to secure shipping system, the shipping companies and the relevant regulatory units should draw lessons from the five factors mentioned above, and take measures to identify and control those hazards