China, Asia, and the World Economy: The Implications of an Emerging Asian Core and Periphery

A growing body of evidence suggests that China's emergence is having differential effects on Asia's advanced and developing countries. The region's advanced countries are benefiting from the existence of a large and rapidly growing Chinese market for their capital goods, components and technology, whereas its developing countries compete head to head with China in third markets. These facts create additional challenges for late-industrializing Asian countries seeking to catch up with the region's industrial leaders. In turn, the emergence of an Asian core and periphery will not encourage the development of a cohesive Asian economic and political bloc. Asian regionalism will be open regionalism in order to prevent regional initiatives from giving rise to costly trade diversion. Efforts to promote Asian financial development and integration are unlikely to come at the expense of the region's financial links with the rest of the world. An early move toward a common exchange rate regime with the associated common monetary stance will be problematic. And, in the absence of these common policies, pressure for the development of powerful regional institutions to formulate the common monetary stance will be at best modest. Copyright 2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.