Climate change modifies risk of global biodiversity loss due to land-cover change

Climate change and land-cover change will have major impacts on biodiversity persistence worldwide. These two stressors are likely to interact, but how climate change will mediate the effects of land-cover change remains poorly understood. Here we use an empirically-derived model of the interaction between habitat loss and climate to predict the implications of this for biodiversity loss and conservation priorities at a global scale. Risk analysis was used to estimate the risk of biodiversity loss due to alternative future land-cover change scenarios and to quantify how climate change mediates this risk. We demonstrate that the interaction of climate change with land-cover change could increase the impact of land-cover change on birds and mammals by up to 43% and 24% respectively and alter the spatial distribution of threats. Additionally, we show that the ranking of global biodiversity hotspots by threat depends critically on the interaction between climate change and habitat loss. Our study suggests that the investment of conservation resources will likely change once the interaction between climate change and land-cover change is taken into account. We argue that global conservation efforts must take this into account if we are to develop cost-effective conservation policies and strategies under global change

Understanding and predicting the combined effects of climate change and land-use change on freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish

Climate change and land-use change are having substantial impacts on biodiversity world-wide, but few studies have considered the impact of these factors together. If the combined effects of climate and land-use change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and/or ineffective. This is particularly important with respect to freshwater ecosystems because freshwater biodiversity has declined faster than either terrestrial or marine biodiversity over the last three decades. This is the first study to model the independent and combined effects of climate change and land-use change on freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish. Using a case study in south-east Queensland, Australia, we built a Bayesian belief network populated with a combination of field data, simulations, existing models and expert judgment. Different land-use and climate scenarios were used to make predictions on how the richness of freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish is likely to respond in future. We discovered little change in richness averaged across the region, but identified important impacts and effects at finer scales. High nutrients and high runoff as a result of urbanization combined with high nutrients and high water temperature as a result of climate change and were the leading drivers of potential declines in macroinvertebrates and fish at fine scales. Synthesis and applications. This is the first study to separate out the constituent drivers of impacts on biodiversity that result from climate change and land-use change. Mitigation requires management actions that reduce in-stream nutrients, slows terrestrial runoff and provides shade, to improve the resilience of biodiversity in streams. Encouragingly, the restoration of riparian habitats is identified as an important buffering tool that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change and land-use change

Climate change modifies risk of global biodiversity loss due to land-cover change

Climate change and land-cover change will have major impacts on biodiversity persistence worldwide.These two stressors are likely to interact, but how climate change will mediate the effects of land-coverchange remains poorly understood. Here we use an empirically-derived model of the interaction betweenhabitat loss and climate to predict the implications of this for biodiversity loss and conservation prioritiesat a global scale. Risk analysis was used to estimate the risk of biodiversity loss due to alternative futureland-cover change scenarios and to quantify how climate change mediates this risk. We demonstrate thatthe interaction of climate change with land-cover change could increase the impact of land-cover changeon birds and mammals by up to 43% and 24% respectively and alter the spatial distribution of threats.Additionally, we show that the ranking of global biodiversity hotspots by threat depends critically onthe interaction between climate change and habitat loss. Our study suggests that the investment of con-servation resources will likely change once the interaction between climate change and land-coverchange is taken into account. We argue that global conservation efforts must take this into account ifwe are to develop cost-effective conservation policies and strategies under global change. Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Prioritizing management actions for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under changing climate and land-cover

Freshwater ecosystems are declining under climate change and land-use change. To maximize the return on investment in freshwater conservation with limited financial resources, managers must prioritize management actions that are most cost-effective. However, little is known about what these priorities may be under the combined effects of climate and land-cover change. We present a novel decision-making framework for prioritizing conservation resources to different management actions for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity. The approach is novel in that it has the ability to model interactions, rank management options for dealing with conservation threats from climate and land-cover change, and integrate empirical data with expert knowledge. We illustrate the approach using a case study in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia under climate change, land-cover change and their combined effects. Our results show that the explicit inclusion of multiple threats and costs results in quite different priorities than when costs and interactions are ignored. When costs are not considered, stream and riparian restoration, as a single management strategy, provides the greatest overall protection of macroinvertebrate and fish richness in rural and urban areas of SEQ in response to climate change and/or urban growth. Whereas, when costs are considered, farm/land management with stream and riparian restoration are the most cost-effective strategies for macroinvertebrate and fish conservation. Our findings support riparian restoration as the most effective adaptation strategy to climate change and urban development, but because it is expensive it may often not be the most cost-efficient strategy. Our approach allows for these decisions to be evaluated explicitly. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Interactive effects of multiple stressors vary with consumer interactions, stressor dynamics and magnitude

Predicting the impacts of multiple stressors is important for informing ecosystem management but is impeded by a lack of a general framework for predicting whether stressors interact synergistically, additively or antagonistically. Here, we use process-based models to study how interactions generalise across three levels of biological organisation (physiological, population and consumer-resource) for a two-stressor experiment on a seagrass model system. We found that the same underlying processes could result in synergistic, additive or antagonistic interactions, with interaction type depending on initial conditions, experiment duration, stressor dynamics and consumer presence. Our results help explain why meta-analyses of multiple stressor experimental results have struggled to identify predictors of consistently non-additive interactions in the natural environment. Experiments run over extended temporal scales, with treatments across gradients of stressor magnitude, are needed to identify the processes that underpin how stressors interact and provide useful predictions to management