Credit derivatives and the default risk of large complex financial institutions

This paper proposes and implements a multivariate model of the coevolution of the first and second moments of two broad credit default swap indices and the equity prices of sixteen large complex financial institutions. We use this empirical model to build a bank default risk model, in the vein of the classic Merton-type, which utilises a multi-equation framework to model forward-looking measures of market and credit risk using the credit default swap (CDS) index market as a measure of the conditions of the global credit environment. In the first step, we estimate the dynamic correlations and volatilities describing the evolution of the CDS indices and the banks’ equity prices and then impute the implied assets and their volatilities conditional on the evolution and volatility of equity. In the second step, we show that there is a substantial ‘asset shortfall’ and that substantial capital injections and/or asset insurance are required to restore the stability of our sample institutions to an acceptable level following large shocks to the aggregate level of credit risk in financial markets

An empirical analysis of the impact of the credit default swap index market on large complex financial institutions

This paper contributes to the primarily empirical literature by conducting the first extensive empirical analysis of the impact of the degree of co-movement in the main standardized credit default swap (CDS) indices on the group of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs). We attempt to account for the dynamics between banks' equity returns and most liquid CDS market indices, the investment grade 5-year CDX North America and the investment grade 5-year iTraxx Europe, through conditioning our analysis on the historical correlation between the variables. Our most important findings are threefold. First, we find that equity returns for all the LCFIs are negatively correlated to both the CDX and the iTraxx indices. Second, the CDX index is the dominant factor driving shocks across all the LCFIs and this effect is stronger for European than US banks. Third, the impact of CDS market volatility on the equity return volatility of LCFIs appears very pronounced, suggesting a transmission mechanism which results in the destabilisation of banks and a subsequent increase in their default risk. © 2012 Elsevier Inc